5 Furlong Sprints

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:52 pm

I’m interested in exploring the track and pace biases in 5 furlong sprint races and will use this thread to experiment on those races that take place each day, for the rest of the month and see how I get on. The two I can see tonight are:

1745 Windsor - Kodiac Express & Magic Pulse - 1pt Each
1815 Windsor - Fly the Nest - 1pt.

Windsor is a flat track and have had a look for runners that will be at the front of the pack and hopefully be difficult to peg back. Will record to BSP. Will go into more detail in future posts as this idea just came to me.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:02 pm

Well, Day 1 off to a good start with Kodiac Express winning at a BSP of 10.6

Magic Pulse did race prominently with the favourite but both weakened and finished tailed off. Fly the nest was disappointing I thought he could use his experience and put them to the sword from the front but it was the favourite who made all and done it well.

1/ Kodiac Express - Won (+£9.07)
2/ Magic Pulse - Lost (-£1)
3/ Fly the Nest - Lost - (-£1)

Day 2

4/ 1815 Newcastle - Hard Forest - £1 Win - (Currently 9/2)
5/ 2045 Newcastle - Wediddodontwe - £1 Win - (Currently 12/1)

Again going with the front runners in this galloping track over 5 furlongs. There is a stiff finish and drawbias.com suggests a high draw bias but there is early days and both these are confirmed front runners who act on Tapeta.

Hard Forest was 4 lengths behind Cosmic Law who won a class 2 at Epsom by 6 Lengths next time out, has ran well at the course before and has experience in this 2yo race.

WedidDoDontWe runs off like scalded cat and could be suited by the drop down to five furlongs. Still lightly raced as a 4 year and can see improvement.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:24 pm

Hard Forest Ran a Decent race, leading as expected for most of the way to be collared in the last half furlong by what looked to be a comfortable Winner. Wediddodontwe didn't run any sort of race, not fast enough for 5 furlongs by the looks of it and getting worked up at the start didn't help.

4/ 1815 Newcastle - Hard Forest - 2nd (£-1)
5/ 2045 Newcastle - Wediddodontwe - Lost (£-1)

LSP so far: +5pts.

Day 3

1350 Wolverhampton - Red Stripes (11/1) - Front runners have a good record and Krystalite / Entertaining Ben both like to lead and are at the head of the market but hopefully they will set it up for Red Stripes to pounce. Drawn 2, dropes in class, races prominently and has a decent 5lb claimer.

1700 Hamilton - A course that suits front runners again and can't see past Only Spoofing (4/5) who likes to make all and is 9 lb well in under a penalty. No bet at odds on.

1810 Wetherby - A Guessing game in a weak race, but the configuration of the 5 furlong course suggest a low draw should be an advantage and My Ukulele (25/1) is drawn low and has had the benefit of a run and that goes for Ventura Bay (9/1) as well so will split a point on each.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:55 pm

6/ Red Stripes - Lost (£-1)I tried to be clever but it backfired, the pace bias suggests front runners are hard to beg pack and Krystalite duly delivered a strong front running performance and won well.

7/ My Ukulele & Ventura Bay - Lost (£-1). Both ran creditably but not good enough.

LSP + 3pts.

Day 4:

1530 Haydock - My stats suggest a high draw bias over course and distance and Wesley (7/1) is drawn to suit, looks well handicapped over 5 furlong form and should be fit after a recent run with Daniel Tudhope a promising jockey booking.

1600 Haydock - Again the stats suggest a high draw is suited which should suit Leo Minor (6/1) who has been running well but starting off slow. When he starts of on terms he should win a race of his class and has the best Haydock jockey in Kingscote on board.

1755 Sandown - Stats suggest a low draw is of benefit over course and distance. Satisfying (3/1) looks a likely type to win this race drawn to suit, has had experience in two decent races in which the form has worked out well

1805 Carlisle - Stats suggest a low draw and Michael Dods has a great record with 2yo runners at the track and que Amoro (3/1) can improve massively after a promising first run

1840 Carlisle - stats suggest a low draw and Michael Dods has a great record with 2yo runners at the track and Flint Hill (14/1) can improve massively after a promising first run in which the form looks pretty strong in that race with a few runners running well in better races.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 449
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:31 am

Hi there,
I was wondering what source you used for your draw bias. You mention drawbias.com which I had never come across. I myself use the far more detailed draw stats. on the Attheraces.com site. What's more the info is free. I often use the very detailed breakdown for the field size, which automatically alters with non runners. Included in the card info is a tab on pace too. My apologies if you know all this already.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:29 am

Hi bhewitt,

Thanks for your input and no apologies necessary as this is what I class to be a bit of fun (I know pretty sad!). I must admit I haven't used ATR's website for ages and I'm quite impressed with all the info. I will certainly be looking to involve that in the future as I use drawbias.com and what I know already from experience.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:14 pm

Another day with no winners but a decent 2nd and a bigger priced horse going off favourite gives cause for encouragement. Think I will focus on horses with form and stop the guesswork of novice/juvenile races and on that note only see 1 horse of interest tomorrow and that is Glamourous Rocket (4/1) in the 1450 at Wolverhampton who likes to race infront which should suit course and distance.

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:25 pm

Glorious Rocket makes all and wins Narrowly to break the losing streak at a BSP of 5. From 13 bets thats 2 winners and a few placed efforts and +2pts profit

8/ 1530 Haydock - Wesley (£-1)
9/ 1600 Haydock - Leo Minor (£-1)
10/ 1755 Sandown - Satisfying (£-1)
11/ 1805 Carlisle - que Amoro (£-1)
12/ 1840 Carlisle - Flint Hill (£-1)
13/ 1450 Wolverhampton - Glamourous Rocket (£+4)

LSP + 2pts

There are a few decent sprints on tomorrow so better get some studying done!

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:26 pm

Sat 9th June

1420 Catterick - Pearl Noir - 7/2
1430 Musselburgh - Orvar - 22/1, Line of Reason, 9/1, Move in Time, 9/1
1525 Haydock - Final Venture - 8/1

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:27 pm

Sun 10th June.

1605 Nottingham - Moonraker - 3/1
1620 Goodwood - Edged Out - 14/1

buchanski
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:00 am
Location: aberdeen

Re: 5 Furlong Sprints

Postby buchanski » Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:42 pm

A poor couple of days means now standing at -5 pts. The pace of the race is probably the most important thing I've noticed so far in these races, and that draw biases are overplayed.

Mon 11th June:

My data suggests that tomorrows races are all suited by front runners and found the below are the likeliest types to try and make all.

1600 Brighton - Ask the Guru (9/1)
1750 Windsor - Awesome (10/3)
2100 Pontefract - Alsvinder (6/1)

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users