A place in the sun in June

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:00 pm

There is only one clear qualifier today on system 4 (Handicaps). Unfortunately the normal place price is under the required 1.6 at the moment.
Kempton 7.30 Insurgence. I have asked for 1.6. If it places at less, the bet will not count.
There was a 'near miss' selection too.
Wetherby 6.40 Hasanoanda. I am not happy with its draw, but it qualifies in all other respects. I will monitor this one in case a non-runner changes things.
Unless otherwise stated, the bet is 1pt.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:32 pm

A non runner means Hasanoanda can be bet. 1pt in the normal place market taken at 1.46. System 2.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:02 pm

It took a long time for the bets to take, but I managed to get 1.6 for Insurgence and 1.46 for Hasanoanda (incredibly it ended up 1.58 on BSP)
Results
Insurgence won 9-4f :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: place paid 1.57 (took 1.6)
Hasanoanda won 2-1f :<a href=/school/lesson15.php>NAP</a>: place paid 1.58 (took 1.46)
I didn't expect them both to win, but that is just a bonus. Believe me, just watching the race and seeing them do well is encouraging enough.
Contrast the places on these two, just to get a place at 1.6 (3/5) and 1.46 (4/9) with Daqman's supernap which had to win at odds of 1/2 (fair enough it did).

Running totals
Horses 6, winners 4 (66.6%)
Place bets 8, winning place bets 7 (87.5%)
All systems
+3.96pts
Comparison SP
+6.68pts

redboy
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6559
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2009 11:00 pm

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby redboy » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Good stuff bhewitt.
Did used to do the place markets a few years ago and was reasonably successful . Now mainly do it on the all weather. Not everyones cup of tea , but I will be following with interest (for as long as you keep posting !).

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:51 am

Hi Redboy,
Yes, this way of betting is not for the get rich quick brigade. But I would rather achieve lots of small wins which accumulate than wait for a (hoped for) winner which might (or might not) achieve the profits in the end.
Every month is unique.
For instance, in February there were 15 qualifiers. There were only 3 winners at 7-2, 3-1 and 100-30 for a loss of -2.17
Yet the normal place return for the same 15 qualifiers was +9.01 with only 3 losers. The additional place return was +4.36 with 0 losers from 6 bets (9 qualifiers did not make the price qualification of minimum 1.5). How often can anyone lose their money because their selection has been beaten a short head? Doesn't happen with place betting anywhere near as much.
Thanks for the encouragement. I will be posting later.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:20 pm

I have yet to look at the rest of the day's racing, but there is an early qualifier on system 4
Yarmouth 1.50 Oswald. 1pt in the normal place market. I have got 1.79. I will also ask for 1.5 in the additional place market for 1pt. Last night I took 11-2 with bet365 for small stakes EW.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:29 pm

There is a qualifier on system 2.
Carlisle 6.40 Early Edition 1pt at 1.55 taken. I will discuss the day's events later.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:43 pm

The last qualifier of the day is in the 9.20 at Carlisle. It is the first selection from system 5.
1pt in the additional place market on My Girl Maisie. I have asked for 2.2

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:08 pm

I seriously messed up today, proving that being meticulous is the only way forward. Put bluntly I lost a packet, but I am still well in profit for the year.
The first thing I do is to look at reasons why the selection did so badly.
Oswald's trainer/jockey combination was 0-3-9 at the course in the last 5 years. I will require a better strike rate for qualifiers in future on this system.
Early Express should not have been advised. One of the criteria was not met. It will have to count for this blog however.
My Girl Maisie's trainer was 0-2-11 in the last 14 days and 0-5-31 in the last 56 days. Clearly a trainer well out of form. Again, a much better strike rate will be required in future.
I also should only have one bet per horse. This will make it easier to compare places with winners. I have adjusted the results below accordingly with Constantino's place only counting for the additional place.
I must say I have not had a day like this before, but even this worse case scenario is a lesson learnt for the future.


Running totals
Horses 9, winners 4 (44.4%)
Place bets 9, winning place bets 5 (55.6%)
All systems
-0.5pts
Comparison SP
+3.68pts

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:11 pm

Nothing doing today.
I have had to do some more analysis since yesterday. I have decided to incorporate systems 2 and 3 together with tighter criteria.
Therefore in the future I will refer to the systems as follows:-
System A based on tips made by online professional tipsters, but with extra criteria for all codes.
System B based on novices and maidens on the flat/AW only.
System C a handicap system for all codes.
System D a further handicap system for all codes.

I will publish monthly results for these in my next blog. As I say, the results are impressive. Any comments will be welcome.

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:15 pm

Three so far (up to 6 o'clock). All 1pt each only
Haydock 4.35 Pipers Note (Additional market. System A. Taken at 2.08.)
Catterick 4.40 Weellan (Normal Place market. System C. Taken at 1.83).
Haydock 5.45 Knowing Glance (Normal Place market. System D. Will not accept under 1.6.)

bhewitt
Group 1 Class
Tips
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:00 am

Re: A place in the sun in June

Postby bhewitt » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:53 pm

Two losing places and one winning one meant another loss. What's going on?
Still, not too much damage done as yet.
The breakdown of monthly results is delayed while I contemplate future strategy.

Running totals
Horses 12, winners 4 (33.3%)
Place bets 12, winning place bets 6 (50%)
All systems
-1.65pts
Comparison SP
+0.68pts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users