Lays and places that really work in August

bhewitt
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Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:08 am

Hello there,
This thread is a continuation of ‘Lays that really work’ which I posted throughout July. However, there are now some modifications to the laying criteria I used. These are listed in a second post below.
I will be giving place selections also.
Both types of betting have been profitable to me recently, so much so that I have made sizeable profits for each of the last eight months. Hopefully, the modifications will make them even more so.

The staking will be as follows for both lays and places.
20 pts for a regular selection.
30 pts for a confident selection.
40 pts for an extremely confident selection.
This will provide continuity of staking with last month, though I nearly tried lay to win 20 pts etc. Everything I will post will have been bet my me on the exchanges. Sometimes there may be multiple bets in the same race.

Anyone reading last month’s thread will know I made some miscalculations which ate into the profits, though a profit was still made at the end of the month. Let’s hope I make less miscalculations this month!

My ultimate aim is to win enough to fund a new kitchen. Please feel free to comment on any aspect of the thread.
bhewitt
Last edited by bhewitt on Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:19 am

Here are my lay criteria. One reason that my profit with lays last month wasn't larger was that I did not keep to these rigidly enough. I will do so this month.
RP SF - Racing Post Speed Figures, ATR SF -Attheraces Speed Figures, and Proform figures can be found on the Betdaq exchange site.

CRITERIA
1. Never lay a downgraded horse.
2. Never lay a horse with a positive win draw at least (AW and Turf).
3. Never lay Irish horses below Group level running at a British racecourse.
4. No more than 46 days since the last run.
5. No bets in races with apparent matches.
6. No lay if having its first run on AW/Turf/NH in the current season.
7. (Ideally) No statistic in Proform/RP (jockey/trainer/horse) to show 20%+ in any category.
8. (Ideally) 2YOs to have had at least two runs.
9. No bet on AW/Flat/National Hunt Flat over more than 1m 4f.
10. Always consider form/SF from NH on the Flat/AW (and vice versa).

HANDICAPS ONLY
11. RP SF (LTO, last 6 and distance) at least 3rd in the list over the race’s distance. Investigate if no rating given.
12. ATR SF (LTO and last 6) at least 3rd in both lists over the race’s distance if possible. Investigate if no rating given.
13. Field size – 8 runners+ at the post.
14. None to have had its last run in a maiden (AW/Turf) or maiden/novice hurdle.
15. Proform speed par to be at least 3rd in the list.
16. No class 5 or 6 handicaps.
17. SP at the off – 2/1+.

STAKING
1. Lay in the win market before the race (i.e. no in running lays).
2. Lay price maximum about 6.
3. 20 pts for a regular selection.
4. 30 pts for a confident selection.
5. 40 pts for an extremely confident selection.

bhewitt

(PS. Robmull - I have printed these out and am keeping them handy for daily reference.)

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:29 pm

Good afternoon,
I have only looked at the afternoon racing so far.
One place horse. Beverley 3.10 Lina's Star. Has run the fastest RP SF by 10spots, on ATR by 17 spots at the distance LTO. It is down in grade. Hanagan at the course is 28%, 41% with 2YOs. Fahey is 20% with 2YOs.
20 points in the alternative market (4 places) @ 1.66. 5pts in the 3 place market (currently 2.18).Draw not negative for win or place.

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby Robmull » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:32 pm

Great start to the thread bhewitt.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Tue Aug 01, 2017 4:00 pm

One for tonight. Very confident about this one.
Galway 6.25 Mogamarah 40 point lay.
This one is up against the 2 O'Brien horses (both sire Galileo) and a Weld horse. Personally, I prefer Sizzling but will not back as it will be too short. M is 37 spots behind S on RPSF (1 spot = 1lb). It has a double negative draw, Sire at the course 0-11, Trainer at the course 2-17 (11%), Jockey 11% (11-104). Lyons is only 3-40 in the last 56 days, 1-17 at the CD, while his 2nd starters on the Flat are only 13%.

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby Robmull » Tue Aug 01, 2017 4:07 pm

Mogamarah: VC analysis suggests that she has an 18.1% chance of winning the race, so current odds of around 6/1 (14.3%) would make her a value bet for win purposes.

Interesting that Sizzling would also be a value bet for win purposes.

Good luck.

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:15 pm

Good evening,
The place bets on Lina's Star both won. The place in the normal place market paid 11-10 to finish in the first three, nearly the price of the winning favourite at 5-4 which had to win. The place bet in the alternative market will be settled as 1.66 ( an SP of 4-6) and it only had to finish in the first four.

The lay was fortunate to come off. The jockey on Sizzling gave the horse far too much to do or could have won. Therefore I used the wrong logic to oppose Mogamarah, but still got the right result.

Totals
Places
Days 1
Winning places 1
Losing places 0
Longest winning sequence 1
Longest losing sequence 0
SR 100%
PL +18.29 pts after commission

Lays
Days 1
Winning lays 1
Losing lays 0
Longest winning sequence 1
Longest losing sequence 0
SR 100%
PL +3.73 pts after commission

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:23 pm

Good evening,
I am glad I didn't bother with the afternoon cards.

I have a lay this evening.
Leicester 7.40 Misty Spirit 20pts lay.
It has a negative win draw, and is either 3rd or 4th on all speed lists, Jockey CD 3-45 (6.5%),Trainer at the course 1-14 (7%), Trainer is 3-42 in the last 56 days, sire at the distance 1-17 (6%).

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby Robmull » Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:06 pm

Good evening,

Sorry wasn't around when you posted, but for the record, the VC analysis for Misty Spirit suggested she has a 24.3% chance of winning the race, so was actually a value bet for win purposes at her SP of 5/1 (16.7%).

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:07 pm

I waited all day and still managed to lay a winner. Oh dear. Still, early days.
Totals
Places
Days 1
Winning places 1
Losing places 0
Longest winning sequence 1
Longest losing sequence 0
SR 100%
PL +18.29 pts after commission

Lays
Days 2
Winning lays 1
Losing lays 1
Longest winning sequence 1
Longest losing sequence 1
SR 50%
PL -16.37 pts after commission

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby bhewitt » Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:29 pm

Hi there.
If you have read my thread for last month, you will know that I analyse after each losing bet why it may have lost. This is why the handicap criteria is so prescriptive. But I never really did this with the non-handicap bets.
Although I checked every criteria thoroughly, Misty Spirit still won easily. It is obvious that the horse had improved, and there was never any way I could tell that from published figures, no matter how detailed. And, of course, this sort of thing can happen repeatedly in the future. I will therefore drop maiden races from my laying list of races.

Fortunately, I have an alternative method for novices, which I have been monitoring for some time now. I will not go into detail with these at the moment, as the criteria are not fully set. However, here are the results since the beginning of the week.
July 30th Pontefract 2.00 Kalagia 2nd 5-2 2f
July 31st Windsor 7.15 Tip Two Win 3rd 5-2
July 31st Wolverhampton 6.15 Pranceabootthetoon 6th 6-1
August 2nd Redcar 2.00 Our Kid 6th 12-1
August 2nd Sandown 6.55 Westerland 2nd 4-6f
August 2nd Leicester 5.55 Ghayadh 4th 100-30 2f

In the light of these results and others, I will start again with the lays from tomorrow, recommending only in handicaps and these novice events. I just wish now I had started all this from the beginning of the month. I will try to get any novice selections out early so Robmull can VC them. I will be interested in what comes up.
bhewitt

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Re: Lays and places that really work in August

Postby Robmull » Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:50 pm

Interesting idea, but I wonder whether there is really much difference between most 2yo Maiden and Novice races, as they are generally contested by fairly unexposed runners, including a number of horses who are making their career debut.

I will be pleased to provide VC analysis, either before the race when I am around, or afterwards if not.

However, the VC is untested in such races, as I have always thought that lack of historic data for most runners will generate inaccurate assessments, but working on this thread and others will help me to understand options for the future.

I guess what I am saying is please don't trust the VC in such races, at present.

All the best.

Rob.

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