VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:37 pm

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis for each of David’s 3 selections for Wednesday is as follows:

BILLY ROBERTS at 17/2 (10.5%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 16.5% chance of winning (based on 11 runners), which suggests that this previous course Winner is considered as a VALUE BET.

MELANIEMILLIE at 2/1 (33.3%): VC analysis suggests that she has a 22.4% chance of winning (based on 9 runners), which means that she cannot be rated as a value bet, although I would agree with David that she is one of the more likely candidates in this low class race.

BOP IT at 7/2 (22.2%): VC analysis suggests that he has just a 5.4% chance of winning (based on 9 runners) and whilst this figure probably underestimates his ability based on his effort last time out, the form of his trainer’s recent runners is rather worrying (0/31 during the past fortnight) and he cannot be considered a value bet.

All prices quoted are best odds available via Oddschecker with bookmakers that offer a Best Odds Guaranteed concession and are correct at the time the VC analysis for each race was completed during Tuesday evening.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:39 am

The results for each of David’s 3 selections for Wednesday are as follows:

BILLY ROBERTS at 17/2 (10.5%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 16.5% chance of winning (based on 11 runners), which suggests that this previous course Winner is considered as a VALUE BET.

8th at 7/1 - 11 ran

MELANIEMILLIE at 2/1 (33.3%): VC analysis suggests that she has a 22.4% chance of winning (based on 9 runners), which means that she cannot be rated as a value bet, although I would agree with David that she is one of the more likely candidates in this low class race.

2nd at 2/1 - 9 ran

BOP IT at 7/2 (22.2%): VC analysis suggests that he has just a 5.4% chance of winning (based on 9 runners) and whilst this figure probably underestimates his ability based on his effort last time out, the form of his trainer’s recent runners is rather worrying (0/31 during the past fortnight) and he cannot be considered a value bet.

8th at 10/1 - 8 ran

Another tough day for the penultimate round of this experiment, with all 3 selections tasting defeat.

The latest standings are as follows:

Overall: 23 winners from 113 selections for a profit of 15.82 pts

Non Value Bets: 16 winners from 67 selections for a profit of 7.21 pts

Value Bets: 7 winners from 46 selections for a profit of 8.61 pts

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Aug 30, 2017 6:46 pm

Hi David and Rob
I sincerely hope this thread goes out on a high note as I do not think either of you really realise what you have achieved to date and having cut my teeth on OLBG a few years back mainly due to a generous assist from yourself David and then having been re-inspired to dig out a few old systems primarily due to your blogs Rob it would be a shame if this thread fizzled out rather than went out with the bang it deserves.
The fact that whichever way you look at it...to have come out with a profit using selections picked in advance of early odds spotlight information and all the other nonsense that we average punters rely on is nothing short of a miracle. I know it finishes in the next few days but I will miss this thread and wish you both the all the best it was fun while it lasted.
Mike (mc1000) :D

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your ongoing support of this thread and my various blogs - although I get plenty of personal satisfaction from undertaking this type of analysis and posting my findings, etc, it is always great to hear that other readers find my ramblings of interest.

As I mentioned earlier on this thread, David deserves most of the plaudits, as he has undertaken most of the hard work to provide the selections for the VC analysis and the fact that irrespective of the results on the final day, he will have made an overall profit, across both NV and V bets is a real achievement. :yes:

I hope to initiate similar experiment based threads in the future, in which I will use a more accurate method to settle winning bets when non runners are involved, but hindsight is a wonderful thing and I don't feel that this anomaly has invalidated the results for this experiment, albeit as mentioned before they profit figures have probably been slightly underestimated.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:43 pm

The VALUE CALCULATOR analysis for each of David’s 4 selections for Thursday, is as follows:

GAMBIT at 20/1 (4.8%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 6.8% chance of winning (based on 10 runners), which suggests that whilst he fully deserves to be one of the outsiders due to his general poor form this season, he is considered as a VALUE BET.

PASTORAL MUSIC at 4/1 (20.0%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 36.5% chance of winning (based on 6 runners) and whilst there may be a doubt over his ability to cope with the drop in distance back to just short of 12 furlongs, he rates as a VALUE BET.

CASEMATES SQUARE at 2/1 (33.3%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 9.3% chance of winning (based on 9 runners), which means that he cannot be considered a value bet, although after just 4 career starts he is another of the unexposed runners that are difficult to assess using the VC.

RAVEN’S LADY at 15/8 (34.8%): VC analysis suggests that she has a 33.6% chance of winning (based on 8 runners) which suggests that she is a tad to short in the betting market at present and cannot be considered a value bet, albeit a slight drift to 2/1 would make her of interest, as she is by far the most likely Winner of this race.

All prices quoted are best odds available via Oddschecker with bookmakers that offer a Best Odds Guaranteed concession and are correct at the time the VC analysis for each race was completed during Wednesday evening.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:47 am

The results for each of David’s 4 selections for Thursday, are as follows:

GAMBIT at 20/1 (4.8%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 6.8% chance of winning (based on 10 runners), which suggests that whilst he fully deserves to be one of the outsiders due to his general poor form this season, he is considered as a VALUE BET.

8th at 20/1 - 10 ran

PASTORAL MUSIC at 4/1 (20.0%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 36.5% chance of winning (based on 6 runners) and whilst there may be a doubt over his ability to cope with the drop in distance back to just short of 12 furlongs, he rates as a VALUE BET.

2nd at 7/2 - 6 ran

CASEMATES SQUARE at 2/1 (33.3%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 9.3% chance of winning (based on 9 runners), which means that he cannot be considered a value bet, although after just 4 career starts he is another of the unexposed runners that are difficult to assess using the VC.

Non Runner

RAVEN’S LADY at 15/8 (34.8%): VC analysis suggests that she has a 33.6% chance of winning (based on 8 runners) which suggests that she is a tad to short in the betting market at present and cannot be considered a value bet, albeit a slight drift to 2/1 would make her of interest, as she is by far the most likely Winner of this race.

4th at 10/11 - 7 ran

We have endured a bit of a lean spell over the past 3 days, so hopefully the final selection for this experiment will hit the mark at Sedgefield.
Last edited by Robmull on Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:07 am

Only just had a chance to have a quick scan through the Sedgefield card, and here's hoping to go out with a Winner.

Aug 31st

Sedgefield 18.00 (19.9f C4f Hc H 4y+)


Almost Gemini.
A Winner on 2 of 3 starts here, and maybe unlucky not to have made it 3 from 3 in this race last year. Jockey has impressive start to career and with both rides in last 14 days being winners, his 7lbs claim looks really useful.
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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:34 am

David,

Good luck with your final selections, including the late edition, which I have just assessed with the VC, as follows:

ALMOST GEMINI at 7/2 (22.2%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 38.9% chance of winning (based on 8 runners), which makes him a sound Value Bet.

BOG odds correct at 12.30 pm.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:24 pm


ALMOST GEMINI at 7/2 (22.2%): VC analysis suggests that he has a 38.9% chance of winning (based on 8 runners), which makes him a sound Value Bet.

4th at 7/2 - 8 ran

It is a shame that we could find a Winner from 4 selections (1 non runner) on the last day of this experiment, but the fact that all categories within the final standings showed a profit is quite an achievement, bearing in mind the unseasonal changeable weather that prevailed throughout most of the month.

The final standings are as follows:

OVERALL:

Winners: 23
Selections: 117
Strike Rate: 19.7%
Profit: 11.82 pts
ROI: 110.10p/£

NON VALUE BETS:

Winners: 16
Selections: 68
Strike Rate: 23.5%
Profit: 6.21 pts
ROI: 109.13/£

VALUE BETS:

Winners: 7
Selections: 49
Strike Rate: 14.3%
Profit: 5.61 pts
ROI: 111.44p/£

I would like to again thank David for his hard work and support throughout the month, who certainly deserves a well earned rest.

I will now spend some time undertaking further detailed analysis of all the selections and results from the experiment, which I hope will provide some further ideas that can be considered for the improvement of the VALUE CALCULATOR process.

In the meantime, readers may be interested in viewing the latest update on the project (see link below), which relates to Group and Listed races, which are currently proving to be one of my most lucrative VC based betting strategies:

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Using The VALUE CALCULATOR To Assess Group And Listed Flat Races On Turf – July To August 2017
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412913

I also intend to commence a similar experiment starting on 1 October with another OLBG member and if anyone would like to participate in a similar collaboration in the future, please send me a pm so we can discuss further.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Panthera » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:15 pm

My thanks to you guys for conducting the experiment. Conceptually of great interest.
I appreciate the huge effort by Robmull with his VC work and no doubt even greater effort by davidg3907 to even get to selections :shock:

I feel that VC is definitely a goer. However I do ask why would I turn away davidg3907's other tips because his non VC selections shows profit overall?. Robmull has alluded to this in his own blog covering his performance during 2017 so far stating, quite wisely, perhaps go with level stakes on all selections but enhanced stakes on the passing VC subset.

I thought that bhewitt's desire to value on an each way (effectively horses to place) is provocative in the sense that I think there could well be something in that. Either that, or the each way market is deemed a non-goer always. And I doubt the latter. I understand the issue of determining what is a place because of number of runners, handicap or not, etc. But there are sufficient oversights by the punting public that sees sufficient horses coming in at 12/1 or higher in the places.

I have some leisure time coming up this winter and wish to give something back to this forum to which I have been a lurker for a long time. So Robmull expect a PM.

Again, well done Robmull and davidg3907

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby Robmull » Fri Sep 01, 2017 6:58 pm

Hi Panthera,

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts and I look forward to discussing a possible collaboration if you decide to send me a pm in the future.

As you say, David did a great job in providing selections that made a profit across all of the subsets during the experiment, which is a great indication of his prowess as a tipster and he is certainly a man to follow.

However, his performance has proved unique to date, as when applying the VC analysis to my own selections generated by historically profitable strategies and that of a number of my friends and acquaintances who regularly bet on horses, the VC qualifiers have far outperformed the Non Value Bets, so much so that they have turned a few punters that have struggled to make a profit over the years into consistently winning punters.

I also agree with you and bhewitt that there may be some mileage in developing the VC to assess place only wagers and although the development of this methodology does not feature in my immediate plans, I would be happy to provide assistance and guidance to anyone who is keen to investigate this opportunity further.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: VALUE CALCULATOR Experiment - August 2017

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:15 pm

Hi Panthera,

The whole concept was just an idea we had in order to compare selections that did or didn't show as value bets when VC checked them.

It was a few days into the trial, after discovering some races were too unsuitable, that I chose to consider just suitable races, and then look for a selection. Being irrelevant whether I made a profit or not, took away any pressure, and doing the work two days ahead (flat only) meant there were fewer distractions. I knew the factors that VC took into account, so had to steer away from those as much as possible to avoid simply coming up with a set of tips, all of which would qualify.

Although retired, I am out quite a lot, so doing things from racecards two days ahead meant there was no time pressure as I could always complete later if necessary.

Yes, I do have an idea about, and almost 200 years experience of, picking horses but am very much a recreational punter, and as surprised as anyone with the success rate generated under these circumstances.

I was not backing or tipping any of them, although as I put in the early part of the thread, they would be genuine fancies, so there was no pressure to get results - they were a (probably fortunate) bonus.

What did I get out of it? Certainly, the biggest plus is the confidence that my selection process wasn't terrible, but whether I would ever take to doing things that way on a regular basis is another matter entirely. :D
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