Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

davidg3907
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:44 pm

That was matched @ 2.04 to cover the recent trading option @ 1.75. I shall try to back at higher odds if they hold on.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:36 pm

It really is crunch time now. However unlikely it is that West Brom or Stoke will avoid the drop, it is now impossible for both to do so.

West Brom. To survive, they must beat Tottenham at home and Palace away. Stoke must beat Swansea and do no better than draw with Palace. Swansea must lose to Bournemouth and draw with Southampton. As Southampton's goal difference is better than West Brom's, it would mean that Southampton would need to lose against Everton and Man City, or lose very heavily to one and draw with the other.
Stoke. If it is still in their hands by then, anything but a win at Swansea on the final day would see them relegated. defeat to Palace next week means collecting parachute payments. A draw would mean having to win at Swansea and require several results to go their way.
Southampton. With their final match being at home to Man City, they would prefer to have many more points on the board before then. A trip to Goodison at the weekend is followed by the showdown away to Swansea.
Swansea. They end the season with home matches against Southampton and Stoke. Two draws may be good enough irrespective of their result at Bournemouth. Despite Swansea's spell of improved form under Carvalhal, the only away win since beating a hapless Palace in August required two goals in the last five minutes to overturn a deficit at Watford in December.
Huddersfield. They always had a difficult end to the season. After the loss to Everton, they may struggle to gain more points. Away matches at Man City and Chelsea are followed by a season finale at home to Arsenal. The saving grace is that Arsenal may have nothing to play for.
West Ham. Un the end, a valiant effort came to nothing against Man City, leaving them possibly needing something out of their remaining matches. First up is a trip to out of form Leicester and they end the campaign with home matches against Man Utd and Everton. None of those three will have a great deal at stake.

The remaining fixtures can be analysed in three sets. There is a full programme next weekend and on May 13th, with the remaining postponed matches being played in between.

Next weekend.

I think Swansea are too short in the relegation market, so this could prove to be a trade or lay depending on style. Should they win at Bournemouth, they would be virtually safe. If Southampton won at Everton, and Huddersfield took points off Man City, it is probable that the trade could not be recovered other than at a loss, leaving the option to convert it to a pure lay bet.

I have requested a lay of 20 pts @ 4.00.

A full update of the current portfolio will be posted prior to the weekend matches.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:54 am

Palace laid in full @ 4.00

Apologies, as per the previous post that should read Swansea.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Sat May 05, 2018 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Tue May 01, 2018 11:19 am

If Tottenham beat West Brom on Saturday, and Chelsea fail to beat Liverpool on Sunday, it would virtually end Chelsea's prospects of a top 4 finish. Whatever happens, I still need them to beat Huddersfield on the following Wednesday.

Arsenal play Atletico Madrid on Thursday for a place in the Europa League final. That match would be just 3 days after Arsenal travel to Huddersfield in the last round of Premier League fixtures. As Arsenal would certainly (and rightfully) prioritise the Europa, how much of a depleted side would face Huddersfield?

As stated in the previous post, I am trying to narrow the gap between Southampton and Huddersfield's liabilities while hoping that Swansea can continue where they left off against Chelsea rather than revert to the rather pedestrian efforts of the first half.

I have requested a 20 pt back of Southampton @ 2.40 but that is beginning to look optimistic and may have to settle for shorter. I had to accept 2.32 for all of that.

I have laid Huddersfield 70 pts @ 2.60 having increased the liability by backing them further 60 pts @ 2.75. Of course, this includes a trade. In actual terms, that is a lay of 10 pts @ 1.70 which is very good value.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 05, 2018 12:35 pm

Stoke take the lead and I have managed to back them for 20 pts @ 1.33 as this a bit of an overreaction.
On the basis of hopeful trading options, I have another 15 pts @ 1.27.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 05, 2018 1:04 pm

I have now requested a lay of Stoke 30 pts @ 1.06. partly matched.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 05, 2018 1:17 pm

Balance matched @ 1.05 after Palace's second goal.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat May 05, 2018 9:09 pm

With Southampton leading 1-0 and Everton having a dangerous looking free kick approaching 90 minutes, I contemplated going up to the computer to back Southampton for the drop. Everton missed the free kick opportunity while I was contemplating and I chose to let it run. :oops: :(

Everton's equaliser also ensured safety for West Ham.

In round figures, the position is that assuming West Brom go down with Stoke, that leaves a profit of 113 pts if Huddersfield join them, a loss of 100 pts if Southampton are relegated, and 237 pts if Swansea are the unfortunates.

A point for Huddersfield at either Man City on Sunday, or Chelsea on Wednesday would not guarantee safety but would go a long way towards making the final day more exciting.

Between those two matches, Swansea host Southampton. This is another match that a win for the Saints would make them safe, apart from massive swings in goal difference.

On the final day all 3 teams are at home.
Huddersfield v Arsenal.
Swansea v Stoke.
Southampton v Man City.

No trading is realistic until I know the outcome of Sunday's match.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sun May 06, 2018 9:32 am

Should Huddersfield take the lead at the Etihad, their odds would rocket. Obviously, the extent would depend on the time of the goal.

It would also cause both Southampton and Swansea to shorten significantly ahead of their meeting on Tuesday.

I lot of what happens next is a case of what results you expect at the Liberty on Tuesday and Sunday but I have placed a few requests in fear of Huddersfield doing the unthinkable. These would be monitored during the match and any unmatched bets cancelled with a view to assessing the situation again tomorrow.

Huddersfield 5 pts @ 18
Swansea 15 pts @ 5
Southampton 25 pts @ 3

The last 2 have little chance of being matched unless Huddersfield suffer a heavy defeat and sustain injuries / suspensions.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Wed May 09, 2018 5:01 pm

Relegation. The final countdown.

It seems that one of the few things I’ve got right in this season’s relegation issues is that 37 points meaning survival, 35 meaning relegation, and 36 could go either way.

With West Brom’s demise as a result of Southampton’s win at Swansea, the picture is finally a lot clearer with just 4 relevant matches left to play.

Wednesday. Chelsea v Huddersfield.
Sunday. Huddersfield v Arsenal.
Sunday. Southampton v Manchester City.
Sunday. Swansea v Stoke.

Huddersfield are safe if they pick up a point in either of their last two games.
Swansea are relegated if they don’t beat Stoke.
Southampton would survive in either eventuality, or they take a point off Manchester City.

That leaves just three scenarios to resolve.

If Huddersfield lose both matches, Southampton lose, and Swansea win, Huddersfield would be relegated unless there was a ridiculous GD swing between themselves (-29) and Southampton (-18) but Swansea would survive as their GD would be better than Huddersfield’s.

If Huddersfield lose both matches, and Swansea beat Stoke, Huddersfield would be relegated.

If Huddersfield finish on 37 or more points, Southampton lose to Manchester City, and Swansea beat Stoke, it would take an adverse swing of 10 goals for Southampton to finish below Swansea.

It is therefore virtually impossible to imagine the series of results that could see Southampton relegated.

The trading situation.

A win for Southampton against Swansea was the only way I could hope to get out of this for little risk, so I ‘wisely’ but regrettably backed Southampton @ 7.60 and @ 32.00 while laying Swansea @ 1.47 after Southampton took the lead. An equaliser would have given instant trading options but the Southampton win would mean I had similar value going into the Chelsea v Huddersfield match, and possibly the Huddersfield v Arsenal match too.

We can probably discount Southampton who can be backed at around 150 to 200 if desired, but the positions open on the final place are as follows.

Southampton. -17 pts
Swansea. – 253 pts.
Huddersfield. + 126 pts.

I intend to take some action ahead of Wednesday’s game.
If Huddersfield get a point they will be safe, making Sunday almost irrelevant.
If Chelsea win, the Huddersfield odds will shorten a bit and further action can be taken before Sunday's match.

For now, I have requested a 15 pt lay of Huddersfield @ 3.75. it has now been fully matched.
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