Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

davidg3907
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Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:16 pm

Following a good profit over the previous few seasons, it was disappointing that last season saw a very good start turn into a scramble to keep losses to a minimum.

The stakes shown will again be proportional to show the strength of bet but of course, do not relate directly to cash amounts. The odds quoted will be those available at the time - whether to place or invite, a bet. These will include both back bets and lays.

In all cases, a point will represent the same (undisclosed) monetary value.

A progress update will be posted as convenient, but all bets will be recorded in as close to real time as possible.

The first bets in the book for this season are a mixture of backs and lays, as well as a couple of possible trades if things don't go according to plan.

Without massive investment, Huddersfield and Brighton look likely to struggle.

Southampton have lost one of their main strikers, and he may not be the last player to leave the club. Not known as big spenders, it may take time for gaps to be filled. At these odds, getting out of the trade would not be expensive if they got away to a decent start.

It was only Burnley's incredible home form that kept them up last season. They look likely to keep their manager now, but there may be a couple of changes in playing personnel. The opening batch of fixtures could be a lot worse for them as they face West Brom, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, West Ham, Newcastle, and Swansea in their first 6 home games. Trading options could be anything from a decent profit to a modest loss depending on those results.

I have also had small bets on Huddersfield @ 3.60 and Brighton @ 7.50 to finish bottom. However, to avoid confusion, these will not be included in the profit/loss account for relegation until settled.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby Micko70 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:30 pm

I wrote this on last season's thread following your comment.

May aswell add it here too. :D
It was only Burnley's incredible home form that kept them up last season. They look likely to keep their manager now, but there may be a couple of changes in playing personnel. The opening batch of fixtures could be a lot worse for them as they face West Brom, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, West Ham, Newcastle, and Swansea in their first 6 home games. Trading options could be anything from a decent profit to a modest loss depending on those results.
David, i thought Burnley got very lucky last season, you say their incredible home form, yet they only won 1 of their last 6 home games, this is the reason that i think they are a great bet to get relegated.

They only picked up 7 points on the road last season, and i personally don't think they will pick up many more than 25 points at home this season, tie that in with another poor record on the road and the genreal 5/4, 11/8 for them to go down looks a good bet for me.

Good luck with your bets

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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:58 pm

I backed Burnley for relegation last season and was (unpleasantly) surprised by their early home results. Unfortunately, their home form didn't falter until they were safe - and this coincided to a degree with an upturn in performances away from Turf Moor. Whether that was down to a change in playing style to any degree, I am not sure.

Their run of home matches at the end of the season started with visits from Chelsea (1-1), Tottenham (0-2), and Man Utd (0-2) before ending with typical end of season affairs against Stoke (1-0), West Brom (2-2) and a rejuvenated West Ham (1-2).

This is primarily a trade that looks viable in the short term; but certainly, one that I am prepared to get out of cheaply if it turns ugly early on.

After an initial run of 6 winnable home matches interspersed with the first 5 away matches being at Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton, and Man City, they play Arsenal, Watford, and Stoke at home prior to a nightmare scenario over Christmas and the New Year.

It would be no great surprise to see no tangible return from those first 5 away games, and they are not the matches that will affect their odds too much unless they are totally outplayed and outclassed. A double figure haul from the 6 home games would ensure they do not get detached in the early stages.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:38 pm

A few toes have been dipped in the water, but only a couple of semi-serious dives into the market as yet. The latest action makes the current situation look like this.

Backed positions, (with current Betfair odds)

20 pts Brighton @ 2.625 ( 2.32 / 2.40 )
3 pts Southampton @ 26.00 ( 23.00 / 24.00 ) ***
25 pts Huddersfield @ 1.727 ( 1.69 / 1.70 )


Laid positions, (with current Betfair odds)

2 pts Southampton @ 24.00 ( 23.00 / 24.00 ) ***
10 pts Leicester @ 16.00 ( 15.00 / 16.00 )
20 pts Burnley @ 2.30 ( 2.28 / 2.32 )
15 pts Crystal Palace @ 6.97 ( 6.80 / 7.00 )
4 pts West Ham @ 13.00


Unmatched positions, (with current Betfair odds)

No unmatched offers

No unmatched offers

The early favourites for relegation are Huddersfield, Brighton, and Burnley. The Relegation Treble can be backed at 17.00 and this seems fair value for 2 pts as a way to possibly compensating the Burnley bet.

*** The Southampton position has been partly traded with the Van Dijk situation unresolved. In effect, I have now backed them for 1 pt @ 30.00


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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:32 am

The results last week were generally in line with expectations, but those that weren't caused massive movements in the market.

The circumstances of Burnley's win (having tried to let a 3 goal lead vanish despite having a one man advantage for much of the match and a two man advantage in the latter stages) mean that the result can't be taken at face value, but even so they did continue to play better on the road than last season's returns show. The fact that Keane and Gray did not appear to be missed as much as feared is another bonus, so there is probably no need to panic here as several teams looked potentially inferior.

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield caused great upheaval in the market. A 3-0 win for the visitors appears convincing, but Palace both defended woefully and spurned several good chances themselves.

Of the pair, Crystal Palace have what would appear to be the easier set of fixtures in the immediate future, so picking up points is a matter of urgency. If they can do so, their odds would not be adversely affected by their next batch of results.

Huddersfield are not going to have pickings as easy as this over the next 10 matches. Squad depth may also play a critical part and I have backed them again, partially to improve the overall odds in the short term.

Backed 6 pts Huddersfield @ 2.18
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby ibfm23 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:52 am

I am onto Bournemouth here. They had a really rough patch last year which was offset but a couple of good runs but I don't feel they have strengthened enough to stay clear and safe all season.

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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:03 pm

I have been keeping an eye on them in the market, and agree that they have not done much in the transfer window, while losing to one of the other teams that may be of similar quality just above the drop zone.

In their next 9 matches, they have winnable home games against Watford and Brighton, while maybe getting something out of the visit of Leicester, but unlikely to get much change out of Man City or Chelsea.

Four tough away games against Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, and Stoke, mean it is clear where their next few points must be gained to avoid the odds continuing to fall.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby jonski » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:52 pm

Hey guys, as olbg epl huddersfield town blogger, all I can say is you keep backing them to go down and I will keep laying your backs.
You dont seem to be taking into account the next few games.
the terriers are at home to the barcodes on sunday, (who are without shelvey - red card) and at home to the saints the following saturday, a couple of games that will see hudds add at least 2 points to the 3 already garnered, maybe even more!!!!
I will be able to back my lays at a handsome profit, in 1 or at most 2 weeks time, and expect this trend to continue throughout the season.
Anyway good luck, and I will be having a few pints courtesy of your backs, so thanks. :D

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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:10 pm

Unfortunately, not only have I taken the next few games into consideration, I have taken all 37 that remain.

Newcastle are credited with 2.69 pts from the next 2 games, so a haul of just 2 is likely to see the odds drift. If they get 3 from the Saints their odds will drift, especially if they get something out of Newcastle too. A win against Newcastle would obviously see them drift immediately, with a certain correction should they lose to Southampton.

Over the next 3 matches, Brighton, Bournemouth, Watford, and Stoke, all have a lower points expectancy than Huddersfield built in. I just feel that Huddersfield's odds have drifted slightly too much on the back of a single match.

With Burnley (who I've laid) providing the other shock, the treble that I used as insurance took a bashing, but it does mean the market has a 28/1 favourite, with 40/1 bar two. With all trebles that exclude Huddersfield being at least 50/1, there is plenty of time to add some safety to the portfolio before the weekend.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby jonski » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:34 pm

David, therein lies your problem,
you have taken into account 37 games into the future!!!!!
so injuries, suspensions, transfers, managerial changes, cup exploits are all known to you are they????
Remind me to buy a crystal ball on e-bay
in this market you can look only 2 or 3 games ahead.
I was drinking on huddersfield doom mongers on saturday night, and I will be doing so this Sunday night.
Luv it... :thanks:

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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:22 pm

Jonski,

The problem is that I am doing a LIVE in-play betting diary - not a history lesson.

The diary is a season long event, with some trading advice and some bets left to run.

If you have any constructive suggestions as to how to make predictions of any sort without looking into the future, I am quite prepared to listen. Why were you not prepared to make these comments before Saturday's match. :? Has your crystal ball said it is impossible for Huddersfield players to pick up an injury or any other cause for unavailability before Saturday. :?

NOBODY will object to you making constructive comments either before or after matches, but OLBG gains nothing from posts telling people what they should have done!

By all means join in, either by appending this post or starting a similar one, but do not simply say what happened last week - because everybody already knows that. If you were so confident of victory, why only tip Double-Chance on the blog? Why not give Tommy the heads-up for his blog. :?

All the preview blogs and tipping competitions on here REQUIRE seeing into the future as we can't tip on last week's matches or races; some are already placing bets on the Champions' League Final and the Cheltenham Festival next year.

In my first relegation blog (always done around the end of June), it can ONLY be based on what MAY happen, and the same with Tommy's "A season long bet for each team" blog done a lot more recently. If you've read either of my previous relegation diaries, you will see they are simply TRADING UPDATES to save writing a complete blog every time I place a bet. I didn't do a diary version before then.

In my blog (even before Huddersfield's spending spree) I had them down for 7 to 9 pts before the end of October, including at most 1 pt in October; the away game at Swansea about whom the Gylfi saga still lingers and the outcome certain to affect their odds and chances. It is not till that point that my first update will appear, giving further predictions for some point in December. What is that if not treating things a few matches at a time. :D :?

I have already backed Huddersfield, Brighton, Burnley, and Southampton for relegation in various forms, and will be backing Leicester (hopefully before long) to reduce the funds tied up due to laying them, a bet based purely with a view to trading. I may also back Everton, Stoke and Crystal Palace for different reasons, - but I do not expect all 8 to be relegated. That is part and parcel of season long trading.

I have already traded part of the Southampton bet.

Excluding the 'big 6', I may back and/or lay any of the other 14 at any time.
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Re: Premier League relegation diary 2017/18

Postby jonski » Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:24 am

David, I suggest you read my posts rather than take up a smart alec lecturing posture. :lose:
If you had done so you would have noticed that I said I was EPL blogger for Huddersfield on OLBG, as such I write a piece on each game with tips that has to be written and published here, 7 days before the game.
So most of your last post accusing me of after timing is pure twaddle.You can check it out here https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412816, oh and if you want to know about this sundays game that is here https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412849

You keep backing and I will keep laying your backs :D

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