MOB's Over 1.50 Goals - Its back again!!! Feb '17

man o bong
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MOB's Over 1.50 Goals - Its back again!!! Feb '17

Postby man o bong » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:02 pm

Inspired by mikeR24's previous blog in an attempt to build a bank on 1.3 and below footy bets in an acumulator, it was discussed about a safety net banking system.

Whilst whiling away the hours on the M4 today, i gave this some thought and was doing some maths in my head on how this could work. What i cam up with (in my head) was that i thought it would be possible to create a �1000 bank from a starting point of �25 with 20 consecutively correct bets.

This figure would be reached by a banked sum, and potential next bet stake

i threw some numbers into a spreadhseet and idneed found out that by backing an average 1.35 price 20 times, and banking half the profit at each stage, after 20 bets the safety bank would stand at 604.07 and the next stake would be 629.07. ( I'll just point out at this point that no commision has been considered here so another calculation would be required for Betfair purposes).

Together the bank and next stake combined total around �1200, allowing for a couple of bets that may come in below the 1.3 mark


the bet sheet looks like this.

Code: Select all

Stake odds return profit bank half Next Stake Bet 1 25 1.35 33.75 8.75 4.38 29.38 Bet 2 29.38 1.35 39.66 10.28 5.14 34.52 Bet 3 34.52 1.35 46.60 12.08 6.04 40.56 Bet 4 40.56 1.35 54.75 14.19 7.1 47.65 Bet 5 47.65 1.35 64.33 16.68 8.34 55.99 Bet 6 55.99 1.35 75.59 19.6 9.8 65.79 Bet 7 65.79 1.35 88.82 23.03 11.51 77.3 Bet 8 77.30 1.35 104.36 27.06 13.53 90.83 Bet 9 90.83 1.35 122.62 31.79 15.9 106.73 Bet 10 106.73 1.35 144.08 37.36 18.68 125.41 Bet 11 125.41 1.35 169.30 43.89 21.95 147.35 Bet 12 147.35 1.35 198.93 51.57 25.79 173.14 Bet 13 173.14 1.35 233.74 60.6 30.3 203.44 Bet 14 203.44 1.35 274.64 71.2 35.6 239.04 Bet 15 239.04 1.35 322.70 83.66 41.83 280.87 Bet 16 280.87 1.35 379.18 98.31 49.15 330.02 Bet 17 330.02 1.35 445.53 115.51 57.75 387.78 Bet 18 387.78 1.35 523.50 135.72 67.86 455.64 Bet 19 455.64 1.35 615.11 159.47 79.74 535.38 Bet 20 535.38 1.35 722.76 187.38 93.69 629.07 bank total 604.07
I've tried to straighten that table as much as possible and hopefully you can follow it.

As a guide by Bet 10 the stake would have risen to �125, and at the same time the bank half column totalled would be sat at �100.41

This a mark surpassed by mike in his attempt, but had it blown out on Bet 11, he would have amassed a bank some 4 times his original stake. A nice buffer to begin attempt 2.

Of course the discipline in finding the bets and not trying to rush has to be applied, certainly finding the good 1.3-1.4 bets is something MikeR24 would be able to do better than I, (football not being my strong point), but i like the way the numbers work in this staking system and would like to have a go.

I will blog how i get on and if anyoine has any suggestions for a qualifying bet, (home win @ 1.3-1.4 odds), then please feel free to get involved.

MOB
Last edited by man o bong on Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:58 pm, edited 13 times in total.
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Postby man o bong » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:38 pm

Bets I am considering for BET 1:

Albania v Luxemborg:
Most likely

Czech republic v Lithuania:
Unlikely

Austria v Khazakstan:
Unlikely

Albania and Luxembourgs last meetings were in Euro 2008 qualifying when Albania won 2-0 in Tirana and four days later triumphed 3-0 in Luxembourg. The previous meeting to that was a 0-0 draw back in 2002.
Edmons Kapplani will remember the two games having scored three of Albanias goals, he will be hoping to add to that tally Tuesday night.

Albania gained a 1-1 draw in Romania in thier opening qualifying game, and it could be argued got what they were aiming for, although after going 1-0 down with only ten minutes left they showed good fight to gain the equaliser just three minutes from time, and could be considered fortunate that the tactics almost went wrong late on, and they just got out of jail. But they seem to be taking this game as very important as three points need to be got against the likes of Luxembourg if they want to stay in contention for qualification, as most teams in the group will be expecting the same result at home.

Luxembourg were beaten 3-0 against Bosnia in thier opening fixture and will still be withouth thier injured captain for the game. They were taken apart in the first 16 minutes conceding in minutes 6, 12 and 16. Bosnia are a different prospect to thier hosts in this game, but they lookde easy to break down on the night, offering little going the other way. The visitors would be very happy to get a point from this game and will most likely aim to do what thier hosts did to Romania.

I think Albania will be too strong, they defended stoutly against Romania and will possibly not have the same level of threat from thier visitors in this game
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Postby tg91pol » Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:46 pm

Really like the look of this one MoB. Infact tonight I've started off and done exactly the same, and my first was Al Shabab Club v Al Salibikhaet SC - Both teams to score in the Kuwait Cup and at half time it's currently 1-1 so I'm underway with decent odds of 4/6 on that bet. Instead of hijacking your thread I'll make my own but thanks very much for the template, really liked it and hopefully we can do well, cheers! :win:

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Postby man o bong » Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:30 pm

I have decided i will play this on Betfair, with the hpe of grabbing some slightly bigger prices alog the way, so will use this in the blog. I will give a potential Return including deductions soa true reflection of what I am doing

BET 1:

Albania v Luxembourg

Albania win at 1.3 Betfair

Stake £25
Potential Return £32.13 (after deduction)
Potential profit £7.13

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Postby jimmywomble » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:26 pm

Best of luck MOB. Think 20 in a row is a reasonable target, I managed 17 before mine fell through if you've been following my similar blog.

You will need to make sure you get to bet 6 though to be able to bank enough profit to cover your initial stake, but after that you do bank an increasingly nice profit with each bet.

With my banking strategy I only need to get to bet 4 to cover my stake, but don't then bank as much as yours. In the middle of my 5th run, the first 2 I didn't make my banking point, but then made bet 18, bet 5 and the current one is up to bet 7 so hopefully that can keep going.

Sure we will have the same bet occasionally, but I don't think so today as I'm heading down to Brazil.

Cheers

Jimmy

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Postby man o bong » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:36 pm

Yes i have been following yours also jimmy, i meant to credit you too, but got wrapped up in creating the first post and forgot. Apologies. It was yourself and Mikes blogs that got me thinking about this.

I dont know if i have the banking strategy is right or not, on the one hand, its a fairly safe way of plopping away half the profit on each and every bet, but it does limit stake and therfore return on subsequent bets, but its a slow process that i am happy with for the first run.

I would actually be more than happy if i could get to and complete bet 4 or 5. In doing so I would have banked in and around £20-30, and a running on stake of £45-55 giving me Three free goes if I fail at Bet 6.

Bet 20 would be wonderful, and i can promise that if i were fortunate to get to Bet 20 at the first attempt, i would take a fortnight break to recharge the batts and come back with a larger starting stake and attempt to build the bank further that way. It is of course the target, but with getting to Bet 5, i can underpromise and hopefully overdeliver.

Fingers crossed
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Postby gripperrocks » Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:10 am

Good luck MoB. I have following Jimmy and Mike's blogs with great interest and I shall also be following yours. It does seem that banking is key in this kind of punting.

I would say yours sounds like a fairly good banking/staking plan.

All the best bud.

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Postby dancoo » Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:48 am

Man O'Bong.
I'M not well up on football, but going to give it a shot.
Nothing ventured nothing gained.
Best of luck.
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Postby Online Trader » Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:46 am

Good luck with this one bud, the football betting sceptic in me says it can’t be done as there is always one that will let you down but you have sensible staking so if you can get through the 1st few bets you will at least have the chance to go again if it all goes belly up I will watch with great interest :win:
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Postby deswalker » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:23 pm

Rooting for you here MOB. The sceptic in me says its never possible to get something for nothing, but there is clearly going to be a fair amount of reasoned selection as well as a clever staking plan so best of luck. :win:
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Postby Matt2H » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:37 pm

Good luck with your system. I've been watching Jimmy's closely and have been playing about with one of my own. I'd say that it certainly is possible to make consistent profits this way but you need to get the staking right and you need to have enough discipline when finding your selections.

I think the trick is to take it as far away from an accumulator as possible. For this reason I'm slightly wary of this staking plan as you need a fair few wins on the bounce to get your stake back, however that's not to say it won't come off.

Best of luck.

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Postby KanKeano » Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:13 pm

Sounds like a plan MOB. Will watch with interest

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