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Even Goals Betting System

Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:15 pm
by Liverpool1985
System:

This season i have been paper recording a Even goals bet on single games. There is a simular system used in Roulette by few people i know. The Idea of this bet is you only need 1 result to finish with an even number of goals in your first 5 matches to make a profit. This will become clearer below. The odds seem to be mainly at 9/10 (1.90).

Even Results Possible (Realistic Results): 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 2-0, 3-1, 4-0, 4-2, 5-1, 6-0 - 11

Odds Results Possible (Realistic Results): 1-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-2, 4-1, 5-0 - 6


Betting Structure: Taking all odds at 1.90.

1st Bet: 20 Points - Returns 39 Points (Profit of 19 Points) (If this wins you bank winnings and start system bet again of 20 points on the next match). If game finishes with an odd number of goals you place the following bet.
2nd Bet: 40 Points - Returns 78 Points (Profit of 18 Points)(If this wins you bank winnings and start system bet again of 20 points on the next match). If game finishes with an odd number of goals you place the following bet.
3rd Bet: 80 Points - Returns 156 Points (Profit of 16 Points)(If this wins you bank winnings and start system bet again of 20 points on the next match). If game finishes with an odd number of goals you place the following bet.
4th Bet: 160 Points - Returns 312 Points (Profit of 12 Points)(If this wins you bank winnings and start system bet again of 20 points on the next match). If game finishes with an odd number of goals you place the following bet.
5th Bet: 320 Points - Returns 624 Points (Profit of 4 Points).

Now whether or not this is luck so far being 3 months in i have only ever had 3 games on the trot finish with odd goals. Obviously you never stake money with this system on more than one game at any one time. And as soon as an even goals result comes in you bank the profit and start from scratch with the 1st 20 point stake again. Betting on matches, 1 following the previous game using worldwide matches you can get through the system 3/4 times per week.

So far this season on my records this bet has returned a profit of 594 points. This only includes the profit and not the stake. I am going to continue testing the system for the rest of the season as however unlikely it is, especially as the evens results has the bonus of covering the draws i want to see if 5 straight matches picked come in as odd results. If you can disciplined in this form of bet i am certain this can work.

People can critisize this possible system but from what i have in my notes on this system it seems i am onto a winner.

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:13 am
by Dammo Qwirky
it seems the odds of odds or evens is about evens, give or take, yet u r getting 1.9, which is less than value.

u havent trialled the system for long enough to see if it was successful and even if u had theres no accounting for the longer freak streak which will finish off yer bank eventually.

not sure how uve got 594 points profit already? how many bets is that?

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:07 am
by Liverpool1985
Like i said you can repeat the system 4 times per week.

Also i did also say i am doing this over the course of the whole season.

Also after speaking with people regarding this i now know this is a system in use by a lot of people anyway. Its a so called moneymaker.

But even though its not a new system i will continue to paper note the records.

I will post my end of season profit in May.

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:00 am
by Betfairalfie
Its a so called moneymaker.
... for the bookies perhaps.

I agree with sensible Dammo here. It does look like your backing an even money shot at 1.90 (after commission?) and then covering losses with a martingale style staking plan. Madness with a capital M.

The odds/even bet is an interesting fun bet and I have to confess I've backed it a few times to highten the interest of watching a game. It ain't over until the final whistle, which is a plus point. But its not the path to riches :lose:

But please start a forum betting blog and prove me wrong :)

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:33 am
by Betfairalfie
PS - just did a quick scan of EPL results so far this season and got 28 evens and 36 odds. That the danger of surveys with small sample sizes.

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:44 am
by Liverpool1985
I will set up a blog tonight. And start with this weekends games.

Knowing my luck the first one will go down :P

Can only do it twice a week though. 5 games from midweek and 5 from the weekend. Otherwise will take ages. If it carrys on the same as its been this season which i think it will it should show you this is a sensible bet for disciplined betters.

Anyway i gather you will be wishing me the best of luck and updates will be available in the Blog forum.

I do see where Dammo and Alfie are coming from. And hope the blog can change your views on this.

Cheers.

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:47 pm
by Betfairalfie
If you look at messages in this forum most people are negative and scepital of new systems people suggest. This is because its not a system they have studied into.
Aimed at me I assumed. For every one person I irritate with my negativity theres probably 10 that want to buy me a pint for saving them a betting bank or two, so I won't be too aggressive in my response to you or your system. I can see that truth is negative when viewed through idiot goggles.

OLBG wisdom, almost without exception, now accepts that Martingayle is madness with a capital M.

I checked the EPL results this year (small sample size, but then its bigger than yours) and you backing a 2.28 shot at 1.90.

Now explain to me why your system is a moneymaker without using the words I can predict the result using my crystal ball. :lol:

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:32 pm
by Liverpool1985
I can see that truth is negative when viewed through idiot goggles.
Ha. Brilliant. Wouldnt judge me. If you have seen my tips you will know i am an experienced better and my tips are successful. Just because i don't have as many posts on this site doesn't mean i don't know what i am talking about. Which i can say i most definitely do.

And that comment was aimed at multiple people after reading through this forum and noticing that virtually every system is attacked by a select few people with there mighty 4000 posts plus. Just remember a lot of people are more experienced than you and me.

Anyway i will set a blog up for this and show you what this system can do.

I dont want to argue regarding this. In fact i was trying to be helpful by providing a so far successful system for others to view and make their own notes on.

Oh and if you run the results worldwide from last season you will see the results favour even goals.

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:35 pm
by Liverpool1985
Sorry i didnt see the last line on that post. I will PM you later explaining why backing odds of 1.90 over 5 bets to make a profit is a moneymaker. (Moneymaker may be the wrong way to describe this system as nothing is guaranteed, but 3 months without a losing bet is a close as they come i reckon).

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:36 pm
by qhstatistics
Guys, i dont think someone should be shot down for bringing a new idea to the table?

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:44 pm
by Betfairalfie
Okay. I was giving my view that this is no moneymaker to protect the vulnerable. Good to see your not a novice liverpool, we've obviously been subjected to some really daft Golden Egg declarations on here. I do get annoyed when people seem to mock my good intentions. Just passing on some hard earned (learned) lessons to save you guys some time and money.

The only secret to this system is the selection process. Do it blindly and it will go bust just as sure as martingayling favourites in uk horse racing - where the longest ever losing sequence was 48 in 2004 :shock: Even without a BAD losing run you'll still have to be a very gifted clairvoyent to beat the book when your backing a (probable) evens shot @1.90 :lose:

No Golden Egg here.

It has promtped me to open a BFA's Golden Egg thread. To sort of put my money where my big (5k+ post) mouth is. Cant guarantee too much specific info but I'll start a debate on some fundamentals when assessing schemes.

e.g

If it includes martingayle kill it immediately.

If it doesn't then write down a one sentence explanation as to why it will work long-term. Then read it when your sober.

More tomorrow - Be Lucky :)

Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:09 pm
by jimny2
Looking forward to seeing how this goes, keep us posted Liverpool...
I will set up a blog tonight. And start with this weekends games.

Knowing my luck the first one will go down
IIRC it used to be tradition that the 1st bet in any system lost as soon as it was posted on a public forum, there's a word for it but I can't remember it...I'm sure Alfie can though :wink:


Just one question, does the system make a profit to level stakes or is it only when your staking system is applied?