Even Goals Betting System

Betfairalfie
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 8976
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:00 am

Postby Betfairalfie » Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:16 pm

Postitis :lose:

I honestly hope that wont happen. I've been a suffer far too often :oops:
Last edited by Betfairalfie on Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Liverpool1985
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 4914
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: England

Postby Liverpool1985 » Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:16 pm

Hi Jimny,

I think i understand what your asking. If i'm wrong let me know mate. The percentage of profit will work out the same no matter what stake you use whether your sequence of 5 bets is any of the following:

1st: £1.00 2nd: £2.00 3rd: £4.00 4th: £8.00 5th: £16.00
1st: £2.00 2nd: £4.00 3rd: £8.00 4th:£16.00 5th: £32.00
And so on.

The only difference is the amount of profit which will be determined by how much you stake. But the percentage will always be the same.


And Alfie. You do have a lot of knowledge, which is sensible mate. What you say does make sense. Dont forget to keep an eye on the blog. :D

t1mmy
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 656
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:00 am

Postby t1mmy » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:53 pm

I'm interested to see how the blog goes, it could go horribly wrong with a bad run of results. Hopefully it'll do well :)

I'm going to paper trade it for a bit of fun.

Out of interest which site are you using to bet on this? I had a look on Betfair and they didn't seem to offer it. bet365 do it but the odds on it ending evens were 1.8 in the games I could look at.

Liverpool1985
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 4914
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: England

Postby Liverpool1985 » Thu Oct 09, 2008 5:54 pm

On bet365 mate. i cant find any games where the odds are 1.80? They are all 1.90. And all the odds are 1.95.

portvalenil
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: London
Contact:

Postby portvalenil » Thu Oct 09, 2008 6:55 pm

If you want to trial any Martingale system, sit yourself down with a dice and a calculator for an hour or two.

For this scenario 1,2,3 is a win. 4,5,6 is a loss. Pay 1.9 on the win.

Or imagine you are getting a 2.0 return and you want a 20% profit. The formula for the stake is x=1.5y where y is the sum of the bets placed so far(ignoring the current bet)

So the bets until you win go 1, 1.5, 3.75, 9.38, 23.45, 58.62, 146.55 etc There is a 1 in 32 chance of you having to place 58x unit stake.

So if you win regularly you are winning peanuts - but you run the risk of the wipe out.

I tried it with draws, spreading my risk by placing different bets each week in 10 banks, cross subsidising any losses. The stakes were eye watering on occasions with losing runs of 12 or 15.

After a while it starts to dawn on you that the only way to win long term is to back value, returning a profit above the stake. All systems do is exaggerate winnings or losses. The simplest "system" is a double. If you get a 10% profit long term on level stakes you will get a 21% profit doing doubles.

But vice versa on losses.

Only one system. Back value.

t1mmy
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 656
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:00 am

Postby t1mmy » Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:10 pm

Liverpool1985 - I was looking at in-play at the time. Seen the pre match odds now all at 1.90 or 1.95.

Good luck :win:

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users