The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Shrews
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The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Mon May 16, 2022 3:04 pm

We all want to bet for a living right?

But we're all scared of the consequences of 'giving it a go'. So the system below is a slow burner and involves starting with a bank of 102pts (obviously this can be adjusted for a lower bank if you wish). I am prepared to lose this 102pts. The system will cope with 30+ successive losers to protect my betting bank in each box. If I lose my betting bank then I lose and it's back to the beginning. If I decide to stick at any point then I keep my money and go back to the betting bank start of 102 pts

The objective: To reach an income of 39078pts per every 108 bets, without losing my betting bank of 102pts. To 'ease' me into the habit of betting big money. It will cope with 30 successive losers (or accum of) before I lose my betting bank. At any point I can stop and go back to the beginning.

Box 1: With my betting bank of 102pts, my target is to win 54pts, from either a win bet of 3pts or an ew bet of 1.50 pts. The price I'm seeking for the win bet is 6/1, the price I'm seeking for the ew bet is 16/1. At those prices and those stakes, I will need to achieve one win from every 6 win only bets (17%) and one win and two places from every 12 ew bets.

After 108 bets this box closes (all boxes will close after 108 bets). If I have have made it it to the 54pts target I will have already moved onto Box 2. If not, then it's pocket whatever money is left and go back to the beginning.

If the 54 points is reached then 'Deal or No Deal' I can pocket the cash or choose to reinvest it to increase my bank.

Box 2: I now have a betting bank of 156pts (102+54), my target is 90pts. Now betting 5pts win or 2.50pts ew. The same rules as Box 1 apply. With the two options: keep the cash and go back to 102 bank or keep going! Or of course, I will have lost it.

Box 3: I now have a betting bank of 246pts (156+90), my target is 144 points. Now betting 8pts win or 4pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 4: I now have a betting bank of 390pts (246+144), my target is 216 pts. Now betting 12pts win or 6pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 5: I now have a betting bank of 606pts (390+216), my target is 324 pts. Now betting 18pts win or 9pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 6: I now have a betting bank of 930pts (606+324), my target is 504 pts. Now betting 28pts win or 14pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 7: I now have a betting bank of 1434pts (930+504), my target is 774 pts. Now betting 43pts win or 21.5pts ew. Same options as above.

**BREATHER** I would guess at this stage it would be difficult to bet these amounts online in one single amount. I would now be splitting stakes between online bookmakers if they haven't already started closing my account. I may need to bet in the High Street and split the stake between multiple bookies. With a win rate of just 17% and 25+ bookies to choose from with a bit of travelling, I doubt there would be any raised eyebrows behind the counter at this stage.

Box 8: I now have a betting bank of 2208pts (1434+774), my target is 1206 pts. Now betting 67pts win or 33.5pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 9: I now have a betting bank of 3414 pts (2208+1206), my target is 1854 pts. Now betting 103pts win or 51.5pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 10. I now have a betting bank of 5268 pts (3414+1854), my target is 2880 pts. Now betting 160pts win or 80pts ew. Same options as above.

**BREATHER** I guess by now it might only be possible to bet at the course. Life changing decisions may need to be made! I need a maximum of 108 bets, just over 3 months at 1 a day. If we're saying 2880 pts a month is a 'living' then I might need to make 3 bets a day. It's possible the quality of the selections could be compromised.

These sums are getting big, it's getting serious. Will I have the bottle to carry on?

Box 11. I now have a betting bank of 8148 pts (5268+2880), my target is 4446 pts. Now betting 247pts win or 123.5pts ew. Same options as above.

Am I dealing or no dealing? Taking the money and back to a small bank? The pressure is mounting...

Box 12. I now have a betting bank of 12594 pts (8148+4446), my target is 6840 pts. Now betting 380pts win or 190pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 13. I now have a betting bank of 19434 (12594+6840), my target is 10584 pts. Now betting 588pts win or 294pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 14. I now have a betting bank of 30018 (19434+10584), my target is 16362 pts. Now betting 909pts win or 454.5pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 15. I now have a betting bank of 46380 (30018+16362), my target is 25290 pts. Now betting 1405pts win or 702.5pts ew. Same options as above.

Box 16. I now have a betting bank of 71670 (46380+25290), my target is 39078 pts. Now betting 2171pts win or 1085.5pts ew. Same options as above.

------Betting for a Living------

If I now maintain my 39078 pts target I will not need to add this to my bank any longer and this will be my winnings every 108 bets. If that's 108 bets a month, that's 39078pts per month. If it's 108 bets per 3 months (one a day or so) then that's 13026 a month.

A six figure salary over the course of a year. Can't be bad :D And if I lose, then I've only ever lost my 102pt initial bank.

See how it goes, see how far I get before I deal or crash! :)

Shrews
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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Mon May 16, 2022 6:14 pm

Accumulative record Box 1.

Target +54pts after 108 bets
3 pts win under 16/1 or 1.50 ew 16/1 or over
A. If not reached after 108 bets, keep any money and go back to the beginning
B. If reached at 108 bets, or any time before it, then either keep the money and go back to the beginning or move to Box 2
C. If the bank gets bust then back to the beginning

Bet 1 - 17/05/22 - Zulu Girl - 2.30 Brighton - 10/1 - 3pts to win - WON +30 (+30.00)
Bet 2 - 17/05/22 - Yagood - 2.40 Nottingham - 3/1 - 3pts to win - LOST -3 (+27.00)
Bet 3 - 17/05/22 - High Wells - 2.40 Nottingham - 33/1 - 1.50pts ew - PLACED +8.40 (+35.40)

Bet 4 - 18/05/22 - Catch My Breath - 4.52 Yarmouth - 9/1 - 3pts to win - LOST (+32.40)
Bet 5 - 18/05/22 - Alba De Tormes - 4.52 Yarmouth - 20/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST (+29.40)
Bet 6 - 18/05/22 - WickyWickyWheels- 4.58 Ayr - 20/1 - 1.50pts ew - LOST (+26.40)

Bet 7 - 25/05/22 - Kraken Filly - 4.25 Hamilton - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST (+23.40)

Bet 8 - 26/05/22 - Bronze River - 4.05 Yarmouth - 6/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+20.40)
Bet 9 - 26/05/22 - Santa Florentina - 4.05 Yarmouth - 50/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST (+17.40)
Bet 10 - 26/05/22 - The Whipmaster - 5.40 Sandown - 4/1 - 3 pts to win - WON (+29.40)
Bet 11 - 26/05/22 - Eikonix - 5.40 Sandown - 15/2 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+26.40)

Bet 12 - 27/05/22 - Menin Gate - 6.25 Haydock - 12/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+23.40)
Bet 13 - 27/05/22 - Chief Craftsman - 6.25 Haydock - 16/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST (+20.40)
Bet 14 - 27/05/22 - Atavique - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 7/2 - 3 pts to win - WON (+30.90)
Bet 15 - 27/05/22 - Alma Libre - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 6/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+27.90)

Bet 16 - 28/05/22 - Haven Lady - 1.51 Catterick - 15/8 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+24.90)
Bet 17 - 28/05/22 - Volcanic Sky - 2.20 Haydock - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST (+21.90)
Bet 18 - 28/05/22 - Chase The Dollar - 3.10 Chester - 12/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+18.90)
Bet 19 - 28/05/22 - Five Zeros - 5.10 Navan - 6/1 - 3 pts to win - WON (+36.90)
Bet 20 - 28/05/22 - Victory March - 5.10 Navan - 5/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+33.90)
Bet 21 - 28/05/22 - Dinamine - 5.10 Navan - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew - PLACED +5.25 (+39.15)

Bet 22 - 30/05/22 - Captain Claret - 4.40 Redcar - 10/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST (+36.15)
Bet 23 - 30/05/22 - Esticky End - 4.40 Redcar - 5/1 - 3 pts to win - WON 4/1 (with R4) (+48.15)
Bet 24 - 30/05/22 - Cosa Sara - 5.25 Ayr - 14/1 - 3 pts to win - WON (+90.15)
Bet 25 - 30/05/22 - Far From A Ruby - 5.25 Ayr - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew - PLACED +3.90 (+94.05)


***BOX 1 ACHIEVED*** :)

Now on to Box 2 + a nice 40.05pts to use as an emergency fund if needed
Last edited by Shrews on Mon May 30, 2022 4:48 pm, edited 13 times in total.

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Mon May 16, 2022 6:18 pm

Bet 1 - 17/05/22 - Zulu Girl - 2.30 Brighton - 10/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 2 - 17/05/22 - Yagood - 2.40 Nottingham - 3/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 3 - 17/05/22 - High Wells - 2.40 Nottingham - 33/1 - 1.50pts ew

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Tue May 17, 2022 1:53 pm

Happy with that, a good start!

Bet 1 - 17/05/22 - Zulu Girl - 2.30 Brighton - 10/1 - 3pts to win - WON +30
Bet 2 - 17/05/22 - Yagood - 2.40 Nottingham - 3/1 - 3pts to win - LOST -3
Bet 3 - 17/05/22 - High Wells - 2.40 Nottingham - 33/1 - 1.50pts ew - PLACED +8.40

+35.40 on the day

18.60pts needed to reach the first threshold of +54 and Deal or No Deal for Box 2

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Tue May 17, 2022 6:27 pm

Bet 4 - 18/05/22 - Catch My Breath - 4.52 Yarmouth - 9/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 5 - 18/05/22 - Alba De Tormes - 4.52 Yarmouth - 20/1 - 1.50 pts ew
Bet 6 - 18/05/22 - WickyWickyWheels- 4.58 Ayr - 20/1 - 1.50pts ew

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am

Bet 4 - 18/05/22 - Catch My Breath - 4.52 Yarmouth - 9/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 5 - 18/05/22 - Alba De Tormes - 4.52 Yarmouth - 20/1 - 1.50 pts ew
Bet 6 - 18/05/22 - WickyWickyWheels- 4.58 Ayr - 20/1 - 1.50pts ew

-9pts on the day

27.60pts needed to reach the first threshold of +54 and Deal or No Deal for Box 2

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Wed May 25, 2022 2:57 pm

Bet 7 - 25/05/22 - Zihaam - 4.15 Beverley - 14/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 8 - 25/05/22 - Kraken Filly - 4.25 Hamilton - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew
Bet 9 - 25/05/22 - Beryl Burton - 4.48 Beverley - 14/1 - 3pts to win
Bet 10 - 25/05/22 - Highland Reel - 5.20 Beverley - 22/1 - 1.50 pts ew

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Wed May 25, 2022 3:49 pm

Bet 7 - 25/05/22 - Kraken Filly - 4.25 Hamilton - 18/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST -3


Beverley was abandoned so the bets below voided

Bet VOID - 25/05/22 - Zihaam - 4.15 Beverley - 14/1 - 3pts to win
Bet VOID - 25/05/22 - Beryl Burton - 4.48 Beverley - 14/1 - 3pts to win
Bet VOID - 25/05/22 - Highland Reel - 5.20 Beverley - 22/1 - 1.50 pts ew

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Thu May 26, 2022 10:57 am

Bet 8 - 26/05/22 - Bronze River - 4.05 Yarmouth - 6/1 - 3 pts to win
Bet 9 - 26/05/22 - Santa Florentina - 4.05 Yarmouth - 50/1 - 1.50 pts ew
Bet 10 - 26/05/22 - The Whipmaster - 5.40 Sandown - 4/1 - 3 pts to win
Bet 11 - 26/05/22 - Eikonix - 5.40 Sandown - 15/2 - 3 pts to win

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Thu May 26, 2022 4:53 pm

Bet 8 - 26/05/22 - Bronze River - 4.05 Yarmouth - 6/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST -3
Bet 9 - 26/05/22 - Santa Florentina - 4.05 Yarmouth - 50/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST -3
Bet 10 - 26/05/22 - The Whipmaster - 5.40 Sandown - 4/1 - 3 pts to win - WON +12
Bet 11 - 26/05/22 - Eikonix - 5.40 Sandown - 15/2 - 3 pts to win - LOST -3

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Thu May 26, 2022 6:51 pm

Bet 12 - 27/05/22 - Menin Gate - 6.25 Haydock - 12/1 - 3 pts to win
Bet 13 - 27/05/22 - Chief Craftsman - 6.25 Haydock - 16/1 - 1.50 pts ew
Bet 14 - 27/05/22 - Atavique - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 7/2 - 3 pts to win
Bet 15 - 27/05/22 - Alma Libre - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 6/1 - 3 pts to win
Bet 16 - 27/05/22 - War Thunder - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 50/1 - 1.50 pts ew

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Re: The 'Deal or No Deal' Threshold System

Postby Shrews » Fri May 27, 2022 5:37 pm

Bet 12 - 27/05/22 - Menin Gate - 6.25 Haydock - 12/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST
Bet 13 - 27/05/22 - Chief Craftsman - 6.25 Haydock - 16/1 - 1.50 pts ew - LOST
Bet 14 - 27/05/22 - Atavique - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 7/2 - 3 pts to win - WON
Bet 15 - 27/05/22 - Alma Libre - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 6/1 - 3 pts to win - LOST

Bet nr - 27/05/22 - War Thunder - 5.50 Fairyhouse - 50/1 - 1.50 pts ew - non-runner

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