When on a bad run, do you bet through it or take a break?

Decoro54
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Postby Decoro54 » Sat Mar 07, 2015 9:17 pm

I might give the tennis betting a miss for a while, especially birds tennis as it's so unpredictable.back to football next week me thinks after Cheltenham of course. If I have a bad Cheltenham (which i probably will as I've never had a profitable Cheltenham week )I'll be adding those equine beauties to my giving up list !

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Postby jaydubs » Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:05 am

point 1

have you got a spreadsheet of all your bets? If so what are you making money on and what are you losing on...

first thing cut out the losing bets and concetrate on what you are winning on

point 2

Are you following the same selection criteria that you have followed when you are successful?

If you are keep doing it ... (lower your stakes and paper trade by all means)

Me personally I know I am going to have bad spells, if I didn't I would be a pro but by spreadsheeting every bet (about 4 years ago i did this) I find where I am profitable and where I was losing... makes a big difference...

I still pick losers but if my bet (which happens quite a lot) moves in from an overnight or early morning price I knwo my selection criteria is still good and its just a matter of time before the winners start again.... some months I do avoid .. The month before Cheltenham .... and early and late season flat racing ....just my own opinion but those months are by far the worst for me

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Postby BOOSTER16 » Sun Mar 08, 2015 1:45 pm

For my current losing run of 28 soon to be 29 or even 30 if both PGA Tour golf bets lose tonight. I have made a decent profit on horse racing this year but a heavy golf loss.

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Postby BOOSTER16 » Sun Mar 08, 2015 1:46 pm

Trouble is the golf tipsters I follow have both made big profits every year the last four years so dont know if this year will just be bad year for both or if I should use the form is temporary class is permanent approach?

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Postby BOOSTER16 » Sun Mar 08, 2015 1:49 pm

Golf tipping sites between them last four years over 2,250 points up.

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Postby jaydubs » Sun Mar 08, 2015 1:59 pm

Only you can answer whether you want to continue or not....

Golf is going to be a lot of hit and miss with bad draws seeing off someone's chance..

I am sure they will be looking at course form , previous tournaments etc. but there are a lot of variables that mean a good selection could miss out..

Guaranteed the week you stop they will hit a 100-1 winner ... saying that they may just have a dry season and make a loss ...

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Postby Jim Brown » Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:11 pm

Booster, not quite sure now what it is you seek now - you've been given decent advice but you seem to be 'lost' as to what to do. One thing any serious bettor has to be able to do is peronally handle a losing run, to stay objective and analyse their betting to make the best decision. Some will decide to stop, some will switch sports, some will continue but lower stakes, and so on. Following golf tipsters, who generally go for big prices, and the likes of Pricewise (yes it's ok to mention him as he's a newspaper tipster), are guaranteed to have you betting lots of losers. The aim is for that to be made up by decent priced winners at recommended odds which in the long-run produces profit.

My first question would be, are you getting the recommended odds? If you don't get Pricewise picks at his recommended odds you are almost certain to make a loss, since his picks go down in price drastically within minutes of the odds being available. To just follow his tips only, at lower odds, is folly. Much the same with golf tips. The stated profits made are ALWAYS to recommended odds and if you are not getting near those odds then you are doomed to potential losses in the long run.

Moving this to Gambling Help, since it's gone beyond the initial question of 'what does a punter do?' to one of your own personal needs.
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Postby mathsbet » Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:52 pm

It sounds like it has become a bit of a compulsion, and is clearly troubling you and causing some internal conflict. Perhaps giving it a break for a while would let you clear your head and come to your own conclusions away from the pressure you appear to be putting yourself under to throw good money after bad in the hope of turning things around.

The sense of not being in control here must be amplified by the fact that you are basically following others on faith, so it's not a question of keeping faith with your selection process, etc, there's nothing you can do about it, maybe the tipsters have changed their selection process, maybe they've delegated the task to a less skillful person, who knows?

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Postby ragnarok » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:07 am

When I am down, I give my self to one person I fully trust. She becomes for me something of a mother and I ask no questions, I do anything she says, she knows better. It is good sometimes to let someone else decide for us.

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Postby pumpdaball » Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:23 pm

Tighten up, get in control. do not reflect on the losers, or the winners, slow the pace, only invest a little amount if you feel pretty confident in your selection. your low run will get better, and the logic of your choices will fall into place again in time. There is absolutely no sure fire way to be successful all the time, the bad runs are like the good runs. Learn to deal with both, remember we need things to go wrong if they didn't we would not learn anything. in other words if you never felt the cold you would never appreciate warmth. when you hit a losing run back off, tighten up. tread carefully, if you don't you will burn. good luck while you wait for the tide to turn.. :)
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Re: When on a bad run, do you bet through it or take a break?

Postby JerryPok » Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:50 am

It's like in Friends. Do you remember them playing in Vegas? As soon as you quit there is someone to win your money! I think that it's not good to give up on a bad run. Of course, you should know the mere, anyway.

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Re: When on a bad run, do you bet through it or take a break?

Postby AsongAboutU » Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:17 am

Usually I was taking a break. I decided to try go through it and it kinda worked. I believe in luck but I believe in maths more

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