Expected Goals - XG

nors
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Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:20 am

For those of you who keep on hearing of XG I thought I would give a brief summary of this metric, and then members could add their thoughts on it, and whether you think it can help us with our betting lives.

XG is a measure of whether a given shot will lead to a goal. It comes from an average of the position of shots taken in previous games, this is based on data that showed how many goals were scored from those positions.

The higher the XG the more likely the opportunity will lead to a goal.

An XG of 0.2 would mean that 2 goals (20%) are likely to be scored based on 10 shots.

Last night Manchester City beat Burnley 5-0, their XG was 2.71, Burnleys XG was 0.03 all based on whether shots would lead to a goal.

Now we know Manchester City is an attacking team and Burnley away from home create few chances, but let's say Sean Dyche had an epiphany during the lockdown and became Klopp like and the game still ended up 5-0 but the XG read City 2.71, Burnley 2.2.

You would know that Burnley did create decent chances against a strong side and this information may become helpful when again away from home they come up against a weaker team, if they can create opportunities against City it bodes well in easier games.

The above is a basic XG explanation and I am sure members have their own thoughts on this.
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BKKBhoy
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby BKKBhoy » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:57 am

HI Nor,

Yes, I am very interested in XG.

Are you using XG to help with your overs and unders bets?

Cheers
BKKBhoy

nors
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:55 am

Thanks BKHBoy, I use it as part of my overall strategy when it comes to footy betting especially if I have not seen a game live or the highlights.

Once I have the info I may look back at previous games and results.

I tend to stick to EPL and Championship with the odd foray into lower leagues and international games.

However it could assist with over/under, correct scores/HDA

I find you get a lot of nonsense spoken by pundits and commentators so to put a figure to a game does assist. (Arsenal winning yesterday is a point in question, they scored with a goalkeeper mistake and when Saints were down to 10 men, yet lots of undue praise was given to them, and they will find Sheffield United a different kettle of fish in the Cup this weekend. )

Back to expected goals, I don't feel there is any substitute to watching a team to understand their attributes and weaknesses, but XG can play a part.

If a team had expected goals of say 1.4 and they won 3-0 they could count themselves fortunate and may not be able to repeat that kind of win in their next game.

Remember expected goals calculates "HOW MANY GOALS A TEAM SHOULD HAVE SCORED BASED ON THE QUALITY OF CHANCES THEY CREATED IN THE GAME"

Do you use expected goals for your strategy?
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby Demoles » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:06 pm

thanks for the brief ! was very interesting to read as a new member her

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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:36 am

Welcome Demoles, please add your thoughts to XG, the more info from members the more we can all learn.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:12 pm

Quite interesting last night that the XG for Man City v Bournemouth was as follows.

Man City 0.83 v Bournemouth 1.67

Bournemouth according to the XG were a tad unlucky, this may hold them in good stead for their remaining games.

I suspect that is the first time City were behind their opponents at the Etihad on XG.

The other games were as follows.

Burnley 1.53 v Wolves 1.29

Newcastle United 1.06 Tottenham 1.75

Arsenal 1.32 Liverpool 2.22
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:24 pm

I know this is after timing but the poor performance by Man City against Bournemouth was replicated against Arsenal in the FA Cup Semi Final, so those who had looked at XG against Bournemouth may have been alerted to a bet on Arsenal in the SF at a huge price.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:00 pm

Hi Guys, does anyone want to add XG for maybe the weekend Championship and EPL games.

It shouldn't take too long and maybe we can find some winners in the weeks to come - I haven't done it yet but did notice that Brentford and Coventry were a tad unlucky and though their XG may be highish, and could be worth following in the next games.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:34 am

Has anyone used Xgoals to guide them to any winning bets this season?

After a few games, we have some more statistics which should help us all.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby burinot » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:11 am

Hello nors,

thanks for the brief ! was very interesting to read as a new member her.

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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:29 pm

Not huge prices but these three home teams I like this weekend in the Championship based on XG

Coventry 3.75
Rotherham 2.46
Swansea 2.38


Cov v Bou
Rot v Hud
Swa v Mil

The selections are more to do with the lack of attack or defensive capabilities SO FAR from the away teams.
Bournemouth - Lack of a goal threat
Huddersfield - Poor defensively. (could be a goal-fest)
Millwall - Good defensively but nothing going forward.

Remember this is very early days for my XG thoughts, so let us see how it pans out over the next few weeks.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby KanKeano » Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:44 am

I've used xG for a few seasons now, using statistics from whoscored.com to calculate my own xG metric. If you can't be bothered with all that there are a few websites out there that provide their own xG calculations.

I don't particularly use it to highlight likely matchups on a weekend, although I have used it from time to time for that purpose I tend to use it more in the season markets to highlight teams that are over-performing/underperforming against their xG.

And like any metric that is calculated over a season, it's not as reliable earlier in the season than as it is later as it can be skewed by the level of opponent early on.
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