Expected Goals - XG

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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:27 am

With the season settling down the stats should help all of us now.

Blackpool v Barnsley - two very poor teams based on xG both in defence and attack.
Because they are equally bad we should take a look at the odds on offer
Blackpool 2.46 Draw 3.3 Barnsley 3.35.

Blackpool could be worth a lay/trade at those prices as Barnsley are no worse/better than their hosts- trade out if they go behind.

Blackburn are very hit or miss - they create a lot but also allow the opposition plenty of chances, they seem to run out of steam.
Cardiff are one dimensional with balls into the box their main weapon of choice, they allow the opposition few chances, McCarthy will be going to Blackburn to keep everything very tight and play for a point, I think he may achieve that, therefore a lay of Blackburn I am happy with.
Blackburn 2.45/ Draw 3.1/ Cardiff 3.45

Lay Blackpool/Lay Blackburn - trade out if they go behind at any time.

The only other championship game that came close was Bournemouth v Luton - I am not enamoured with Bournemouth despite them being top if they win this afternoon, the reverse is true in my thoughts about Luton, they are underrated, they may just get something this afternoon, although i will not be getting involved.

Hope all have a good footy day.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:27 pm

The weekend bets were poor especially the Cardiff capitulation.

Based solely on xG the draw as the outsider at odds of 3.0 in the Preston v Stoke game could be the way to go.

Preston at home and Stoke away based on xG are midtable teams, I will look at these odds and split my stakes in the 1st half.

Half Time
0-0 @ 2.6
1-1 @8.5
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:32 pm

Well, last night's thoughts couldn't have gone any better with 1-1 at HT and Full Time.

I would always caution anyone as we all know results are very hit and miss, and anyone following any system/ideas needs to follow over a period of time, that has always been the olbg way, the best tipsters in the tipping competitions have long term profits verified.

https://www.olbg.com/tipsters/tables?id=c-46

Tonight we have two teams who have improved no end in Luton v Coventry, I am not sure on form they can be separated.

In their last home game, Luton took on Swansea and let a 3 goal lead slip, so their defence is vulnerable.
Going forward they are one of the top teams at home

Coventry have surprised football watchers, but their manager knows his stuff and they play decent football, their xG stats are as good away as they are at home, however they have lost a couple of games away.

I do not see Luton losing this home game, and with most firms, they are just outsiders, a decent bet could be BTTS, but am happier laying Coventry pre-match as expect Luton to start fast, if Luton do go ahead I can get out of the bet at 1-0 and make a profit before the 90-minute mark.

Of all the other Championship games the home sides do look good to me, even Peterborough at 9/2 who may for a period of time hold/lead Bournemouth, the cherries allow teams chances and can be a bit gung ho.

Lay Coventry at 2.84.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Sat Oct 02, 2021 11:49 am

I couldn't find much today although based on xG Leeds are a ridiculously short price against Watford, a lay of Leeds could be the way to go because I can see Watford scoring.

Leeds has brought in some new players and it doesn't seem to have gelled yet, this game is going to be played 100 mph and mistakes to my eyes will be on the cards, I just hope those mistakes are by Leeds, they allow a lot of chances for the opposition

Watford have decent stats away from home especially defensively and at the best odds of 4.8, they offer value.

Lay Leeds at around 1.8, the price being so low should not do too much damage if things go pear-shaped.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Sun Oct 03, 2021 7:55 pm

Things did go pear-shaped with Leeds winning and dominating the game, however, Watford were robbed of a legitimate goal (IMO) but still the game didn't work out as I predicted.

Watford created little and Leeds had few troubles in defence.

I normally concentrate on the Championship and noted that despite losing 0-1 Cardiff were second in the xG statistics (Coventry were top) in the championship this weekend, maybe after a run of defeats they could bounce back in the next few games

Cardiff 1.98 v Reading 0.09
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:00 pm

This weekend we have a home team in Blackburn who create a lot of chances taking on Coventry who are towards the top of away teams who create a lot.
Overall both home and away they create a lot.
Where Blackburn fall down is allowing a lot of chances, but Coventry despite lots of chances have only scored 2 goals on the road.
Trying to work out how the game will pan out I would expect Blackburn to be on the front foot and Coventry to counter-attack.
Blackburn has lost their last two both away from home so should be motivated to put that right,
Prior to that they beat Cardiff 5-1, scoring 3 in the 1st half and having 13 attempts at goal. Coventry lost their last away game 5-0.
This game is the tightest when we look at the odds of all the Championship games this weekend.

  • Blackburn 2.93
    Coventry 2.6
    Draw 3.3

I am going to lay (bet against ) Coventry pre-match and then green up if Blackburn score first, if not and Coventry score first I will lay them again, at the shorter price and hope that Blackburn equalize.


The South Wales derby sees two completely contrasting styles of play - Pass and move Swansea take on Cardiff who hoof the ball upfront and look for knockdowns and set-piece goals. Swansea are 19th and Cardiff 20th.
  • Swansea 2.45
    Cardiff 3.0
    Draw 3.2
Swansea create very little but do not allow many chances.
Cardiff despite their results are decent on the road.
The xG stats point to a draw.
Swansea are the favs so will lay them at around 2.5.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:01 am

As an aside to xG we can see that 42% of Championship games this season have ended in home wins.

Last season after all the games were played the percentage was 41%, results in the last 5 seasons have never fallen below 40% home wins.

So in a 12 game weekend, the average should come out around 5 home wins, the rest will naturally be divided amongst draws and away wins.

However, you will notice that most weeks the bookmaker prices heavily favour home wins, this week for example only 2 games do not have home favourites, the games at Blackburn (2.94) and Bristol City (4.6).

The stats say there are 7 games that could end up as draws or away wins, but the odds do not reflect this, the skill is finding which home teams will not win, xG can help in this task.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:35 pm

The Blackburn v Coventry match went according to plan and I was out of the game early with Blackburn scoring first in the 39th minute.

However, as predicted they are vulnerable in defence and accordingly the game ended 2-2.

BTW there was a 6-minute gap between Blackburn's two goals and a 6-minute gap between Coventry's two goals!!

The Swansea v Cardiff match was exactly the opposite with everything going badly.

Tonight's game between Arsenal and Crystal Place has two teams that create very few chances, defences are likely to be in charge.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:11 pm

Last night Arsenal had an xG of 2.15 and Crystal Palace of 0.59 these figures remember are based on the amount of goals on average that would be expected to be scored score given the quality of the chances in the game.

If we then look at another reported figure - attempts on goal
Arsenal 17
Crystal Palace 9

We know the game ended 2-2, did either of the figures give you an understanding of how the game panned out?

From my point of view, Arsenal were sloppy and should have kicked on when they had the advantage of that early goal, but they went back in their shell and virtually forced Palace to play, which they did, the visitors didn't create much but were on course to win the game.

xGfigures are only a guide so always important to watch as many games as you can to get an even truer picture.

Tonight we have unbeaten away from home Bournemouth who have a stellar away record on NOT allowing teams good chances, they are far and away the best + have only conceded 1 goal in 6 games.

The home side Stoke have a good record themselves, this looks like a tight game and the odds reflect this so no bet, Stoke are slight favourites.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:35 pm

Well, Bournemouth just enhanced that stellar record mentioned above by winning at Stoke, only 1 goal conceded away from home in 7 games, the only other team to concede 1 goal in their away games this season from the top 2 divisions is Chelsea.

Tonight we have a couple of games in Hull v Peterborough and Reading v Blackpool where based on xG the home teams and favourites may not be as good as the bookmaker odds indicate. The problem is the away teams are just as bad/worse.

In Hull v Peterborough we are likely to see these two teams being relegated, Hull should be much better at home but are not, and Peterborough keep on conceding and have the worst defence in the Championship. I am hopeful that with such bad defences both teams score. What I like about this game is that both sets of managers and the players will both feel they can get 3 points, they are taking on their rivals for relegation.
BTTS is 1.83.

The second bet will be in play, if Hull score first they will be around 1.6 to win the game and as I expect Peterborough to score I hope they will equalise and will lay them. If outsiders Peterborough score first then no lay bets.

Reading are very hit and miss Blackpool despite being bad are not as bad as some, their xG away from home is midtable, you can see the bookies think the same because Reading is odds against and Blackpool ONLY 3.5.

Overall only Peterborough have a worst expected goals against record than Reading, so Reading do allow opposition teams plenty of teams chances. I will lay Reading pre-match and hope Blackpool upset them, if Blackpool score first I will close my bet.

With these bets I am first and foremost concerned about the odds, if either Peterborough or Blackpool were favourites I would go nowhere near them, the odds dictate the risk.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:06 pm

Blackpool did the xG thread a huge favour in battling back to beat Reading.

Peterborough also did the business although they scored first.

This weekend we have some interesting games in the Championship, and right off the bat I will be laying Blackpool this time against Preston, they are poor at home and although Preston are not great away from home their defence is decent.

A pre-match lay of around 2.98 on the home side and if Preston takes the lead I will then take the profit and close the bet, even if Blackpool score first I will see this lay all the way through to the end.

I make this the strongest trade of the weekend.

Lay Blackpool at 2.98


Two other matches feature teams incredibly well-matched xG wise.
Cardiff v Middlesbrough - McCarthy v Warnock, it will not be pretty
Millwall v Stoke - Only issue with this is that Nick Powell is injured for the Potters.

It would not surprise me if both games ended up a draw, I may trade these if either side scores early (first 30 mins).

I would expect home wins for:
Coventry
Luton
Blackburn

they are taking on weak away from home teams.

The only EPL game I thought worth a look because of xG is Leeds v Wolves, Leeds (2.68) are the favourites I am not sure they should be, Wolves have handled the loss of Nuno very well and Bruno Large is doing a good job.

Hope all have a winning weekend.
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Re: Expected Goals - XG

Postby nors » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:06 pm

No joy with Preston losing at Blackpool and by the sounds of things they didn't deserve much.

Wolves did ok and were a touch unlucky not to get all three points with Leeds scoring a penalty in injury time.
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