Football Discussion & Selections - Tues 17th Oct 2017

garlicsauce
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Football Discussion & Selections - Tues 17th Oct 2017

Postby garlicsauce » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:20 pm

Discussion & Selections on all Tuesdays games (including).........................................................................


Champions league -
Maribor v Liverpool - ko 19.45
Man City v Napoli - ko 19.45
Real Madrid v Spurs - ko 19.45

League One - Gillingham v Wigan - ko 19.45

Leagu Two - Exeter v Luton - ko 19.45


Plenty more games on today. What will you bet watching and betting on?

jamiedavies023
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Re: Football Discussion & Selections - Tues 17th Oct 2017

Postby jamiedavies023 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:45 pm

RB Leipzig v Porto

The graphic below contains some information about when German sides have hosted Portuguese sides in UEFA competitions since 2011/12. The first thing that jumps out is the German sides have a record of 9-2-2 in 13 meetings. The second thing that jumps out is that only twice in those 13 meetings have the German side been available at odds against.

Looking back at matches played last season (matches 2 and 3) Dortmund were priced at 2/7 and 2/5 to beat Benfica and Sporting respectively. Starting with the Portuguese sides I hink it's a fair assumption to make that there isn't too much between Benfica, Porto and Sporting, so if Dortmund were playing one of those sides tomorrow I'd expect to see them around 4/11 or 1/3. Last season Leipzig finished above Dortmund and they won away in Dortmund this past weekend and over the past year there isn't too much between them on my shots ratings with Dortmund being slightly favoured, I still think Dortmund are a better side the RB Leipzig but I don't think they are being paid enough respect here - I think they should be odds on.

Since 2011/12 German teams at home in UEFA competitions have a record of 79-35-36, Portuguese teams have a record away from home of 29-34-62

Image

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RB Leipzig to win @ 21/20 bet365

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Re: Football Discussion & Selections - Tues 17th Oct 2017

Postby jamiedavies023 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:16 pm

Here's a few thoughts on the rest of tonights CL action;

Dortmund should beat APOEL, similar to APOEL v Spurs other week though I think APOEL are too big a price, Dortmund are 2/9, to put that into some perspective a peak Barcelona were 2/7 a few years ago. Dortmund 2-0 or 3-0 but won’t be touching at the price.

Feyenoord v Shahktar is a very interesting game - Feyenoord aren’t in the best of form both domestically or in Europe, I’ll plump for an away win but Shahktar are short enough at 6/5.

City v Napoli. What. A. Match. City been the best side domestically, Napoli have been the best side in Italy on my shots ratings for the last year. At 9/2 I think Napoli are overpriced, City have been on fire but are still vulnerable at the back. Should be plenty of goals.

Liverpool to beat Maribor. My first thought was Liverpool should hammer Maribor, closer inspection tells me they’ve played 14 European home games since 11/12, won 2 drew 6 lost 6, of the games they’ve lost they’ve only lost by 2 or more twice, in that time they’ve drew with Chelsea, Sporting and Sevilla but lost to the likes of Schalke and Lazio, I think they could sneak a goal. Liverpool 2-1 or 3-1

Monaco v Besiktas is another good match, Besiktas dropped off abit domestically whilst Monaco aren’t the same team as last season. Monaco under pressure to get a result here or they could be going out. Willing to leave this game alone at the prices

Real Madrid v Spurs should be another cracker, prices look about right to me. Real Madrid obvisouly favourotes but haven’t been firing on full cylinders yet this season, can see Spurs giving a good account of themselves and maybe nick something from the game.

Spartak v Sevilla again the prices look about right. Spartak another team struggling domestically, I said with Man Utd and Liverpool in the last game week Sevilla could be going there at the right time, this time next month it’ll be more difficult playing in freezing conditions, seasoned European campaigners like Sevilla should go there and get the job done

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