Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

PompeyJim
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Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:41 pm

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona is one of many mouth watering clashes scheduled for this weekend after the International break.

At the time of writing, with the possibility of Barcelona having to play without their fans in attendance for consecutive games will this seriously impact on their chances as they travel to Madrid's new Wanda Metropolitano stadium for the first time ?

OLBG are offering a £20 cash prize for the most informative tip comment added by a member on the Atletico v Barcelona match which kicks off 7.45pm on Saturday 10th October.

The Comments Team will consider tips with comment analysis placed on all the available match markets and to qualify the tip/s must be added in the monthly competition in the usual way using the 'Make a Tip' menu -

https://www.olbg.com/members/maketip.php?id=19

We will be looking for detailed analysis that will highlight some or all of the following:

- Recent form of both teams in the early part of the new season.
- Important team news, notable absentees, injuries etc..
- Team set up, likely styles and key areas/players.
- Recent and relevant head to heads, new stadium for Atletico, possibly no Barca fans ?
- Plus any relevant info that you feel gives your tip that edge to influence followers placing a bet.

The comments team will judge ALL the tip comments as it's the excellent content analysis we are judging not just winning tips and will announce the £20 cash prize winner on this thread and the cash will be paid directly into the winners OLBG account.

We intend to run ongoing a £20 "best comment" competition on one event each week and to encourage more people to get involved the £20 prize can only be won once by any member in a calendar month.

The high profile live TV games are of high interest and OLBG will see many new users accessing the app and website looking for guidance and advice from our Football tipsters, especially with the Liverpool v Man United clash and the Milan Derby this weekend so let's show them the quality we have and bag yourself a cool £20 in the process !

We look forward to judging your excellent analysis for OLBG followers again this week.

Enjoy the match and best of luck with your football tipping this month.
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby jamiedavies023 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:13 pm

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona

Atletico host Barcelona in what will be their 3rd league match at their new stadium, below is snapshot of a few statistics from this fixture for the last 7 seasons (league only), albeit they were played at Atleti's old ground.

Image

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Barcelona have won on 6 of their last 7 visits with the other match being drawn. Taking into account league matches at the Nou Camp Barcelona are undefeated in their last 14 meetings with a record of 11-3-0.

The next point of interest are the current quotes of 8/5 about a Barcelona win - this is the biggest price they have been in this fixture since I started collecting data in 2010/11, what makes this significant to me is that as I mentioned above this is only their 3rd game at the new ground, should Atleti really be a shorter price here than they was at the fortress that was the Calderon? I don't think so.

Over the past year (a rolling-season if you like) Atleti have a a record of 23-9-6 and a shot rating of 0.602 (out of 1.000) which ranks 3rd in La Liga, Barcelona boast a record of 31-5-2 with a league best shot rating of 0.663

Trends

BTTS has gone 5/7 when this fixture is played in Madrid
BTTS has gone 10/14 in this fixture
Over 2.5 has gone 5/7 when this fixture is played in Madrid
Over 2.5 has gone 10/14 in this fixture
Under 3.5 has gone 7/7 when this fixture is played in Madrid
Under 3.5 has gone 11/14 in this fixture
Barcelona have won 2-1 in 5/7 in Madrid including the last 2 years

Recomended Bet(s)

Barcelona DNB @ 9/10 Marathon Bet

I realise DNB bets may be a bit short of a price so a few alternatives;

Barcelona to win @ 8/5 Various
Barcelona to win & BTTS @ 4/1 Various
Barcelona to win 2-1 @ 9/1 Various

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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:52 pm

Hi Jamie,

Welcome to OLBG and thanks for some great info and insight on the match there.

Be sure to add your tips in the tipping competition via the tips menu link below -

https://www.olbg.com/members/maketip.php?id=19

There are plenty of match markets available and comment analysis must be at least 20 words and no more than 200 to qualify in the monthly tipping competitions.

Thanks again and good luck.
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby Emmasa » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:34 am

Hi, I published my tip for the game but I was limited to 200 words and I had more, so I thought I could publish the entire preview here:


Atletico de Madrid-Barcelona is one of the best matchup in the spanish league and Atletico is one of the strongest team in Europe at home.

Still Atletico is coming into this match with doubts. They are winless in last 2 games, losing to Chelsea at home (1-2) and drawing 0-0 to Leganes, a newly promoted in Liga. They are struggling to score; just 6 in last 7 games, and are desperate to incorporate Diego Costa, but will have to wait until january. Still unbeaten in Liga (4-3-0).

Barcelona is on a 9 games winning streak, scoring 27 and allowing just 2 goals. They are perfect since they lost both games to Real Madrid in Spain Supercup, and they are leading the league with 7 wins out of 7. Messi has already scored 11 goals in Liga, his best start ever. The defense allowed just 2 goals and of course Ter Stegen has something to do with that.

Atletico hasn’t changed much since last season, and didn’t incorporate new players this summer because of a sanction. They look as solid as always under Simeone, but the attackers are struggling to score. Including Griezman, the biggest Atletico star, who found the net just 2 times in Liga so far, with a red card included. Fernando Torres is still at 0. Oblak, the goalkeeper, is possibly their best performer right now.

The new Atletico stadium is doing its job, according to season ticket holders we’re in touch with: it will be sold out of course. But it’s hard to consider the new stadium a factor against an experienced team like Barcelona. As for the fans, we don’t expect problems: Atletico and Barcelona are rivals but the fans have always been united by their common hate against Real Madrid.

Tension is pretty high these days with the catalan issue, but again, we don’t expect the team to be affected at all by the absence of Barcelona fans or the political situation. Both the team and the executives are acting moderately, except maybe Pique’, who was booed during Spain game vs Albania by spanish fans.

Atletico won just one of last 8 meetings in all competitions against Barcelona, losing 5, with 2 draws. Last meeting was last february the 26th and Barcelona won in Madrid 2-1.

- Barcelona is on a 9 games winning streak
- Barcelona scored 23 and allowed 2 in Liga this season
- Atletico scored 6 goals in last 7 games in all competitions, and allowed 3
- Both teams are unbeaten in Liga

We expect a low scoring game with Barça taking the three points. Barcelona has a very favorable balance against Atletico these last years, and while Atletico is a pretty structured team with no B plan, Barcelona is more flexible and can play in different ways according to the rival. The new coach is working pretty well so far and along with that, Messi can make the difference in very close games like this with some magic.

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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:05 pm

Thanks Emmasa, excellent analysis along with Jamie's for OLBG followers.

I thought Chelsea contained Atletico very well in the Champions League match particularly second half but Barca will pose a different more attacking threat, should be a great match Saturday and the new stadium looks fantastic.

Top stuff, good luck with your tip too !
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby Burb123 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:54 am

Atletico Madrid suffered their first competitive defeat in their new Wanda Metropolitano stadium against Chelsea recently.
Antoine Griezmann and Angel Correa have been a threat up top, but Diego Simeone's men are generally struggling to put in any performances that are pleasing to the eye.
Barcelona are the only team with a 100% record in La Liga heading into the weekend, and they have Lionel Messi in sensational form. I predict 2-1 Barcelona.

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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby Emmasa » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:53 am

Hi, I thought I could drop a couple of lines about the other 3 games in spanish Liga today. Just for fun, and it’s the league I follow the most.

13.00 GMT Athletic Bilbao-Sevilla

This is another classic clash in Primera Division and Athletic can show a favorable balance vs Sevilla in San Mames. Still Athletic form is far from good. They are winless in last 7 games and lost 4 of them, so morale is low and doubts start to spread around the new manager. They were leading 2-0 last time out and ended up losing 2-3 to Valencia. Athletic lost last 2 games at home vs At.Madrid (1-2) and Zorya, and won just 4 of last 11 matches at home.

Sevilla lost in their last 7 visits to San Mames and last win is dated back to 2009 (4-0). Still their form looks much better entering this game. They won 4 of last 5 games, keeping a clean sheet in all 4 of them, and lost just 1 of last 13 matches. They also lost just 3 of last 11 games away and improved a lot in this department comparing to last season.

Athletic main threat is still Aduriz, 36 yo, with 7 goals in 13 games so far. Iñaki Williams and Muniain will try to help him as usual. As for Sevilla, Ben Yedder scored 7 in 8 games (all competitions) but the most valuable player seems to be N’Zonzi, a key-player in Sevilla system.

Previous meetings are clearly favourable to Athletic Bilbao, at least in San Mames. Athletic won last 7 meetings at home vs Sevilla, still they are trailing if we look at total meetings (60-57 for Sevilla with 29 draws in Liga).

Last 5 games, Athletic Bilbao: DLLDL
Last 5 games, Sevilla: WWLWW

Prediction: With such a good balance at home and the absolute need of 3 points, we don’t see Athletic losing today. We expect a close game and a 1-1 draw


16.15 GMT Getafe-Real Madrid

Real Madrid is already 7 points behind Barcelona and this means a lot even if it’s just mid-october. As these two clubs always look at each other and split the vast majority of titles in Spain, they know statistics don’t lie. Never has Real Madrid won the Liga title being 7 points behind Barça after 7 games.

That said, Real Madrid still looks the most powerful team on earth and they are able to revert statistics anytime. Zidane is under a little pressure now because they can’t fail anymore in Liga: and we don’t expect them to do it.

Real Madrid is entering this game with 3 consecutive wins and 10 wins in last 13 games. Their last loss on the road was an irrelevant 1-2 against Atletico last May. They scored at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 games away, and looked brilliant against Borussia Dortmund in their last trip.

Getafe is a team from Madrid suburbs and they are a newly promoted. They don’t look in good form with just 6 wins in last 20 games and just 2 in last 11. They crashed Villareal 4-0 in their last game at home, but took just 1 of last 4 in their stadium. They are in 13th position in the table with 8 points.

Real Madrid will miss Bale, Carvajal, Kovacic, Theo Hernandez and Keylor Navas. Getafe will miss Gorosito, Pacheco, Montero and Shibasaki.

Previous meetings are clearly favourable to Real Madrid, who took last 7 games. Last win by Getafe over Real Madrid is dated back to 2012 (2-1).

Last 5 games, Getafe: LWDLW
Last 5 games, real Madrid: WWWLW

Prediction: Real Madrid has too much power for Getafe and they also desperately need to take the 3 points.


18:30 GMT Alaves-Real Sociedad

The is a basque derby between two struggling teams. Alaves sacked their coach after 5 games winless and hired italian Di Biasi, who helped them to take the first points and the first win last time out over Levante (2-0). They then lost a friendly vs Badajoz. Both teams are in trouble as Real Sociedad lost 4 of last 5 and Alaves lost 5 of last 6 games.

Alaves had a very good campaign last season, reaching the Copa del Rey final (lost to Barcelona) and a quiet salvation. Most of those players were loaned from other teams and this year the squad looks poorer. Alaves lost last 3 games at home, all of them complicated games (Barcelona, Villareal, Real Madrid). Before that, they stayed unbeaten 7 consecutive games at home.

Real Sociedad allowed more goals than any other team in Liga (17 in 7 games), but they also have the 2nd best attack with 17 goals (only behind Barcelona, 23). Main threats are Willian Jose (3 goals so far), Mikel Oyarzabal (3 goals in 4 games) and Juanmi (also found the net 3 times).

Both teams had plenty of time to prepare this game and they will have almost the entire roster available. Alaves is missing Laguardia and Hector Hernandez while Real Sociedad will miss Agirretxe and Zurutuza and possibly Iñigo Martinez, a key defensive player.

Last 5 games, Alaves: LWLLL
Last 5 games, Real Sociedad: DLLLL

Prediction: This is not an easy pick as both teams look in trouble. Still Real Sociedad offensive football should find space in Alaves poor defence. We expect many goals with Real Sociedad taking the three points.

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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:39 am

Atletico Madrid suffered their first competitive defeat in their new Wanda Metropolitano stadium against Chelsea recently.
Antoine Griezmann and Angel Correa have been a threat up top, but Diego Simeone's men are generally struggling to put in any performances that are pleasing to the eye.
Barcelona are the only team with a 100% record in La Liga heading into the weekend, and they have Lionel Messi in sensational form. I predict 2-1 Barcelona.
Hi Burb123,

Good luck with your prediction !

Don't forget to add your tip in the tipping competition, we have the correct score market available.

https://www.olbg.com/members/maketip.php?id=19


Good luck
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:40 am

Thanks again Emmasa, excellent insight for followers looking to place a bet.

Good luck with your tips.
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:57 pm

Thanks to the members who added their tips on the match, and to those already mentioned previously for the excellent additional analysis posted on this thread(forum awards received).

From the tipping comment competition tips, Emmasa, twfaulkner, edandumdum all made the short list along with the £20 prize winner Honeybadger -

“Madrid suffered a defeat in their new stadium against Chelsea and I think they haven't really inured to their new stadium. Barcelona would probably be without their faithful fans which makes me think both sides are levelled here. I think Madrid would come with a 4-4-2 formation with Correa and Griezmann in front. Sime Vrsaljko picked up a knock on international duty. Iniesta for Barcelona has a knock but should start in central midfield. I suspect Ernesto could also utilise a 4-4-2 system with Sergi Roberto on the right-hand side of midfield. Barcelona have won their last 14 matches (La Liga) and have won 5 of their last 6 away matches against Atletico in all competitions. Both sides are amongst the 3 teams that haven't lost this season. I am expecting both teams sharing the points - though Barcelona are the only team with a 100% record in La Liga heading into the weekend, and they have Lionel Messi in sensational form - Messi has scored in five of his last six La Liga games against Diego Simeone's side but we should also consider the fact that Atletico are undefeated in 35 of their last 38 home matches (La Liga).”

Well done to Honeybdager and thanks again to those members for the additional excellent match analysis posted on this thread.
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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby Honeybadger » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:02 am

Thanks Pompeyjim! I feel elated to be the winner of last week's competition (Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona), especially amongst the best football analysts in this forum. You guys are doing a great job and I really appreciate your efforts - More power to your elbows.
Thank you.

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Re: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 7.45pm - £20 Cash prize for best tip comment.

Postby PompeyJim » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:16 am

Thanks and well done again Honeybadger, great insight and heads up for OLBG followers looking to place a bet on the match.
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