Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Matshopsy
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 7:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Matshopsy » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:10 am

Fair comment. They don't at the moment but i do expect them to come good. Good squad there i'm thinking they are gonna start to gel soon. Kodija coming back will certainly give them a lift.

ghofman
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:00 am
Contact:

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby ghofman » Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:21 am

Hey,

Seldom poster these days, but huge fan of ante post betting as time to get value and keep to staking plans are great for casual punters looking for good value prices and an interest.

Glad to see someone tipped up Napoli on here, that will go very close with Juve not quiet as unstoppable this year. Sarri is magical at manager, if you havn't watched them yet do, its a football revolution.

I have been taken by Watford, they have few holes most notable at left back, but manager is very much one of the best and they are 7/4 now for the top 10. The Likes of Everton and Southampton at far shorter odds won't have it all their own way given what I have seen of both, while surely Newcastle won't be able do it with current squad over a whole season.

Watford top 10 @ 7/4 Betfred Unibet (stick up 2.9 on exchanges)

Emmasa
Group 2 Class
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 103
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Emmasa » Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:09 pm

Hi everybody, I'm posting here and I hope it's good.

I'm looking for somebody with mathematics notions to develop a betting system for 1X2 Other Football. I'm using a site as a selection tool in last months and had good score (check my LSP in last months). It's not me, it's the system

Thanks

jamiedavies023
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:23 pm

Asian Champions League 2017 Outright

*I've posted something similar on another forum*

We're up to the semi-final stage with the first legs already in the book;

Al Hilal (SAU) 4-1 Persepolis (IRN)
Shanghia SIPG (CHI) 1-1 Urawa Reds (JPN)

Al Hilal have all but secured their place in this years final, however the Eastern region have won 7 of the last 8 finals so I'd heavily favour the Easter side in the final - whoever that may be, Id expect to see Outright odds of Eastern Side 8/15 Al Hilal 11/8 as a ballpark figure.

A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final. There is 5/2 available for Urawa for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify odds you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals this would be a proposterous price; as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter. For arguments sake let's make them 8/13 to qualify and then 8/13 in the final, this still only makes them an 8/5 shot to lift the trophy for me; even shoving them out to 4/6 for both makes them 7/4.

Recomended Bet

Urawa Reds To Win The Asian Champions League @ 5/2 188Bet

jamiedavies023
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:46 pm

Asian Champions League 2017 Outright

*I've posted something similar on another forum*

We're up to the semi-final stage with the first legs already in the book;

Al Hilal (SAU) 4-1 Persepolis (IRN)
Shanghia SIPG (CHI) 1-1 Urawa Reds (JPN)

Al Hilal have all but secured their place in this years final, however the Eastern region have won 7 of the last 8 finals so I'd heavily favour the Easter side in the final - whoever that may be, Id expect to see Outright odds of Eastern Side 8/15 Al Hilal 11/8 as a ballpark figure.

A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final. There is 5/2 available for Urawa for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify odds you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals this would be a proposterous price; as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter. For arguments sake let's make them 8/13 to qualify and then 8/13 in the final, this still only makes them an 8/5 shot to lift the trophy for me; even shoving them out to 4/6 for both makes them 7/4.

Recomended Bet

Urawa Reds To Win The Asian Champions League @ 5/2 http://olbg.info/82/L40/D/words>188Bet>
Urawa qualified for the final with a 1-0 victory over Shanghai SIPG - 188Bet have posted their Outright odds, they have Urawa at 9/10 with Al Hilal favoured at 4/5, these odds are still wrong for me, Urawa should be alot shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 9/10 188Bet

jamiedavies023
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:54 pm

I like Seattle Sounders in the Outright market at 8/1 (Various).

I must start by admitting that on my ratings Toronto are the best team left in the competition and in the whole of the MLS, they are for me a little short though at around the 9/4. They'll face 2 tough matches in the Conference phase of proceedings against NYRB and in my opinion NYCFC before a home final against the winners of the Western Conference. I have them at around 6/4 to win the Eastern Conference and the 9/4 available for the Outright suggests they'll be around 3/10 for the final which is miles too short.

Seattle rank as the 2nd best team remianing in the Westen Conference, behind Houston, looking back over match prices this season I make them 8/13 to progress past Vancouver, I'd then have them a similar price to beat Houston or Portland which makes them around 7/4 to win their Conference. When they hosted Toronto earlier in the season they were around 4/5, which suggests the market only sepearates them by home advantage, meaning Toronto would be around 4/5 for 90 minutes for the final, now I would expect them to be shorter - just not significantly, I'd say Toronto 1/2 Seattle 6/4 for the Outright, the combined odds only come to around 6/1, thus for me atleast, making Seattle the value selection in the Outright.

hearts123
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:44 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:18 pm

Huddersfeild @ 8/1 to finish bottom of the PL look an outstanding value bet! :shock: :hope:

jamiedavies023
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:35 am

Copa Libertadores 2017 - Outright

They aren't much of a price but I think Gremio are outstanding value to win the Copa Libertadores at 4/5 (bet365) - I think they should be closer to 4/7,

Dmoestic Matters

I've included below my Brazilian Serie A ratings for the last year and Argentine Primera ratings taken over the same period (STR - Orange)

Image

Image

As you can see I rate Gremio as one of the top Brazilian sides over the course of the last year, Lanus on the other hand, despite winning the title last season find themselves in an upper midtable position as far as my ratings go.

Competition Notes

Since 2011/12 Brazilian sides have a strike rate of 0.585 in Copa Libertadores matches, Argentine sides strike rate is slightly lower ar 0.561
Brazilian sides have won 4 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance
Argentine sides have won 3 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance
H2H in Copa Lib matches Brazilian sides hold a slight lead; 26-17-23, both nations however tend to be very strong at home.

Misc

Gremio faced Argentine side Godoy Cruz in the L16, they were priced at 1.43 for the home leg and 2.32 for the away leg and before the 1st leg they was 1/2 To Qualify. If we refer back to my Argentine ratings above and compare Godoy Cruz and Lanus, you'll see that there is'nt much between the two sides on my ratings with Lanus being prefferred. So, the prices for Gremio v Godoy Cruz seem a good starting point, as my ratings favour Lanus over Godoy I'll make some adjustments and push out Gremio a touch and shorten Lanus, I think a fair price for Gremio would be around 1.66 for the home leg and around 2.65 for the away, again taking into the difference between Lanus and Godoy I'd have Gremio around 4/7 for the outright with Lanus 5/4.

hearts123
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:44 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:43 pm

Fair comment. They don't at the moment but i do expect them to come good. Good squad there i'm thinking they are gonna start to gel soon. Kodija coming back will certainly give them a lift.
I've now backed them (Villa) in a good few bets to win the Championship. They are coming into a bit of form and I really don't fancy Wolves to still be at the top come the end of the season, I don't think they have the depth of squad necessary.
Among my bets is a double with Huddersfield to finish bottom of PL. 3 x with Arsenal Eurpoa.

Matshopsy
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 7:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Matshopsy » Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:45 am

Yes Villa seem to have turned the corner, sadly i never backed them just did the Kodija bet. Dont think he's scored yet! Also have bets on Zahore, Assombalonga and Jota (wolves)... never had anything on Bonatini tho an i havent checked recently but he must be about 3 goals clear now

jamiedavies023
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm

Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby jamiedavies023 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:43 pm

Scottish FA Cup

I think Hibernian are overpriced to lift the Scottish Cup at 20/1.

I'll begin by saying with Celtic's domestic dominance they're probably playing for 2nd place here; that being said, there is plenty to like about Hibs chances at the price;
  • They rank a comfortable 2nd in my SPL ratings after 13 matches (see below)
  • Their form in the Scottish Cup (most recent on the left) is SF-W-SF-R5-RU-RU
  • Manager Neil Lennon is a 2x Scottish Cup winner with Celtic
They are more than double the price of Aberdeen and Rangers despite ranking above them in my ratings, they are 2 points behind Aberdeen and 1 point above Rangers in the league albeit having played a game more, theyve already drew 2-2 at Celtic Park this season, won 3-2 at Ibrox but succumbed 1-0 at home to Aberdeen.

Image

Bet

Hibernian to win the Scottish Cup (EW) @ 20/1 bet365 & Stan James

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wonderwall