Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby man o bong » Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:52 am

Brilliant post Darren
When you're told you can't do something, do it and prove them wrong

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby machacro » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:45 pm

Superb write up, Darren.

I must say, as a big follower of the National League myself, I agree with pretty much everything you've written. I can't look past Tranmere for the title but the odds are too short to back seriously over the next 9 months. They pushed Lincoln all the way last season. Other than that, it's a very wide open league and the extension of the play-off places from 4 to 6 teams makes things that bit more open, with Aldershot certain to push Tranmere fairly close as Gary 'Wadfather' Waddock continues to work his magic.

Wrexham have made some very interesting signings and there's still time for more. There's definitely a big sense of positivity surrounding Dean Keates and what's happening at the club. As a Sutton United season ticket holder, the bookies have overpriced Sutton seemingly on the back of a freak FA Cup run, but as already mentioned two other outsiders to follow are Fylde and Ebbsfleet - both of whom I'd expect to be at least top 10 considering the resources and ambition. Ebbsfleet, in particular, struggled to get out of a weak National South league and at times couldn't cope under the pressure. That said, they finished like a train last season and did well to hold their nerve and win the play-offs. With Ebbsfleet, they were a very big fish in a small pond whilst now they are a much smaller fish in a much bigger pond - and that could be of advantage to them as little is now expected of them.

With regards to the National South, Eastbourne could be worth a bet at 16/1. They're a side with recent Conference pedigree and they also appointed Bognor Regis' promotion winning manager Jamie Howell over the summer, while last year they announced the biggest investment in the club's history.

In League 2, I can't look past Yeovil and Crawley for relegation - although there are a few candidates. Crawley have taken a huge risk in appointing rookie Harry Kewell as manager, while Yeovil are severely depleted and have been on a downward spiral ever since relegation from the Championship in 2014.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby addpea » Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:41 pm

Thanks guys.
I think if Tranmere were any shorter than 3s I would have just stuck them in multi bets, but I think there is just enough to back them in a single as well. They have what looks a kind first few fixtures so chances are the price won't get any bigger.
Glad you agree with me as regards to Sutton. I am really surprised you are as short as you are, having said that I might be backing you to win on Saturday.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Mr Blue » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:35 pm

I had to smile on reading the last post -from Darren.edit. OH I'm sorry I have clearly misread `Darren's post.Was in a hurry. Well it doesn't matter. So`Tranmere may be value. Wonderful !I often read threads from the bottom up so havnt read Darren's post that everyone's complimenting him on.
Because I have literally just been putting Tranmere in a few accumulators. :oops:
Now I could ,and probably should leave it there ,but I'm going to say something that will make everyone on this forum think I don't have a clue .
But that's ok because it's the same on other forums :)

So all I'm going to say is .....
In long term markets it's actually a mistake to not bet on a favourite in accumulators merely because you believe the price isn't big enough so long as the betting pattern is favourable and so long as your stake is a tiny part of your bank. :shock:

The betting pattern in the National league is currently pretty wonderful.

Of course things change but I can only comment on the current situation.

One other thing regarding this league. The 6 playoff places is fantastic for someone like me who bets accumulators.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Mr Blue » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:32 pm

My goodness!
Yes Darrans post was wonderful!
It was so good I had to pause the movie I was watching to take it all in. And its a good movie . Not the normal Hollywood nonsense aimed at 12 year olds.
Incredibly useful.
It's got me wondering how many bookies actually take his bets unrestricted ?
Can't be many.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Springfield » Sun Aug 13, 2017 12:18 am

You are right most do restrict me now although that is more to do with horse racing than non-league football. bet365 and Betway don't restrict which is lucky as they have the best and most markets although BetVictor closed my account and Skybet have limited me for years now and they also have a decent range of markets. Match betting wise most of my bets are through Marathon as they are nearly always biggest about who I want to back and they have decent limits as well.

PS this is my account I had to set up as I don't have access to the other one out of work.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby ibfm23 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:17 pm

I have come a bit late to the party this year but for those who are interested my Premier League ante-post betting tips are:

Rooney to score 9 goals or more - I took this at evens - I felt that the price was to a certain extent disrespectful towards Rooney who I believe will be rejuvenated at Everton. Not sure whether the price is still available though.

Salah to score 15 goals or more - I took this at 5 and Tommy posted it on his ante-post blog.

Berainho Stoke top scorer - I took this at 3.25 - Stoke's goals will probably be split among many players but if he can keep fit and get a couple of confidence boosting goals early during the season the former West Brom man could be a 15+ goal man which should make this bet a winner.

Bournemouth relegated - I took this at 7 - Bournemouth toyed with relegation last year and I feel that they haven't done enough in the transfer market to be mainstay mid-table. Could be a good cash out early on.

Gray Watford top scorer - I took this at 3.5 - Very similar thought process to Berainho.

Mitrovic Newcastle top scorer - I took this at 7 - He had a brilliant pre-season and will be a handful against the smaller clubs. Gayle remains favourite but the price was good enough to warrant a punt.

Italian Serie A

The Serie A will kick off next week and I have identified the following ante-post opportunities:

Napoli winners @ 7 - Juventus are massively overpriced. The Bianconeri lost Bonucci whilst Chiellini, Barzagli and Buffon are all a year older. The defense which served them so well over the years won't be as consistent and could well cost them the title. Napoli haven't done much in the transfer market however they have kept all their key players put. Could be a good cash out early on.

Immobile top scorer EW 1/5 123 @ 26 - He hit 23 goals last year and can't be so far off the likes of Higuain, Dzeko and Icardi as the price suggests. Doesn't have the pressure the others have and is the designated penalty taker.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby pep004 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:29 pm

Hello guys, I don't know how much are you into French league football, but well, transfer window is closed in my league and here you can read all about it. I posted some analysis last season and even if I started working with closed group of subscribers this season, I will try to be active here as well.

Transfer window is closed and Ligue 1 lost some great players. Anyway, thanks to PSG from this season on, Ligue 1 will have one of the best players in the world - Brazilian magician Neymar. After a magnificent season of Monaco it was pretty clear that European giants will attack them from all sides. It's true that they lost some important players, but they invested in future with smart signings and we can expect them fighting for highest places again. Plenty of changes happened in Nice, Bordeaux, Rennes and especially in Lille, where Bielsa started his "era" with bringing in several hot prospects. Another team who earned a lot during this transfer window is Lyon, who invested in future as well. Opposite happened in Marseille as they added some experienced players. Some eyebrows were raised about transfer activity in Nantes, Montpellier and Metz.

Big spenders! PSG, Monaco, Lyon, Marseille, Lille.
- Neymar who has joined PSG this summer is most expensive footballer in history. Of course Neymar wasn't the only new superstar in the team. Besides full backs Yuri Berchiche and experienced Dani Alves, PSG loaned Kylian Mbappe from Monaco. All in all 238 million euros!
- As mentioned, Monaco lost few important players but they spent more than 100 millions for Yuri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Stevan Jovetić (Inter Milan), Keita Balde (Lazio), Adama Diakhaby (Rennes), Kongolo (Feyenoord) and Meité (Zulte Waregem).
- Lyon invested in future as well. Except experienced target man Marcelo (Besiktas), they bought young promising players as Bertrand Traore (Chelsea), Mariano Diaz (Real Madrid), Kenny Tete (Ajax), Marçal (Guingamp), Ferland Mendy (Le Havre) and Diop (Celta Vigo) and spent 48,5 million euros.
- Marseille's plans were slightly different as they added experienced players as Luiz Gustavo (Wolfsburg), Adil Rami (Sevilla), Valere Germain (Monaco), Kostas Mitroglou (Benfica), Steve Mandanda (Crystal Palace), Aymen Abdennour (Valencia), while one and only little bit younger player is Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa). All together they spent 42 million euros.
- Lille spent 58 million euros for bunch of young talents!

New projects...
- First of all we need to mention Lille here. With several hot prospects in the team Bielsa will try to do his magic, but as competition is pretty high this season, his job will be far from easy. For promising players as Thiago Maia (Santos), Nicolas Pepe (Angers), Kevin Malcuit (Saint-Etienne), Thiago Mendes and Luiz Araujo (Sao Paulo) Lille needed to pay more than 50 million euros. All in all they added no less than 13 players to the group!
- We have plenty of new faces in Nice as well. After they lost some key players, they tried to replaced them and most known player who joined the team is Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray).
- We can be sure that Oscar Garcia will try to change defensive minded Saint-Etienne and players who joined them: Assane Diousse (Empoli), Loïs Diony (Dijon), Remy Cabella (Marseille) are suitable for his way of football.
- Bordeuax started new season with high hopes as they brought Benoit Costill (Rennes), Cafu (Ludogorets), Lerager (Zulte Waregem), De Preville (Lille). Even though the most important news for the club was that Brazilian talent Malcom stayed in the club.
- After departure of Conceiçao, Nantes agreed with experienced Claudio Ranieri, but as it seems new coach isn't really happy with the way how the transfer window ended. They added some players to the squad as Ciprian Tatarusanu (Fiorentina), El Ghannasy (Oostende), Rene Krhin (Granada), Nicolas Pallois (Bordeaux), Andrei Girotto (Chapecoense), Kalifa Coulibaly (KAA Gent), Joris Kayembe and Chidozie Awaziem (Porto), but main problem stays in attack. Who can be a quality goalscorer of this team?
- Team who had a pretty decent transfer window is Toulouse. Finalising the deal with Corentin Jean (Monaco) and adding Yaya Sanogo (Arsenal) and experienced Giannelli Imbula (Stoke) and Max-Alain Gradel (Bournemouth).
- Of course we need to add Lyon here, as they have started this season with bunch of new players in first eleven and PSG as well as they brought a new key player to the team.

Ligue 1 will miss bunch of quality players...
As mention on start, some clubs had decent seasons and their key players weren't unnoticed. Biggest fear was in the team of Monaco, where big European clubs were aiming on players as Bernardo Silva, Benjamin Mendy, Timoue Bakayoko, Kylian Mbappe, Djibril Sidibe, Thomas Lemar, Fabinho,... Even though it looked that they will loose all of them, they lost "only four of them". Benjamin Mendy (57,5 million euros) and Bernardo Silva (50 million euros) signed for Manchester City; Timoue Bakayoko (45 million euros) for Chelsea, while Mbappe has been loaned to PSG with future fee which might go till 180 million euros! Lyon lost their key players Alexandre Lacazette (60 million euros to Arsenal) and Corentin Tolisso (41,5 million euros to Bayern) and little bit surprisingly Emanuel Mammana (16,5 million euros to Zenith) as well. Besides that I can stress also transfers of Aurier (from PSG to Tottenham for 25M), Matuidi (from PSG to Juventus for 20M), Dalbert (from Nice to Inter for 20M), Karamoh (from Caen to Inter for 6M), Boudebouz (from Montpellier to Betis for 7M), Ounas (from Bordeaux to Napoli for 10M), Augustin (from PSG to Leipzig for 13M), and several others...

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:47 pm

Skybet are offering 7/2 the top 4 in any order
Man City
Man U

3 of those are guaranteed (I don't know which 3) so you are basically getting 7/2 that neither Arsenal or Spurs finish top 4. With Spurs problems playing at Wembley and Arsenal in turmoil. I think this represents great value. What do you think?

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:10 pm

Somehow my AP post suffered the fate of many - put into 'preview' mode for proof-reading and forgetting to actually post it. needless to say, it was one I didn't write in Word first! OLBG really should make it impossible for senile old idiots to close a post while in preview mode. :lol:

Along with the customary bets on the relegation market, I ventured into some others. As you will now see, there has been a wide range of WIP scenarios, ranging from that looks quite good to why did I do that.

Premier League Handicap market.
Leicester (+32) with Hills.
Premier League to finish bottom.
Brighton @ 7.50
Huddersfield @ 3.60
Premier points spread.
Burnley BUY @ 35
Championship handicap.
Wolves (+10)
Sheff Weds (+4)
League 1 promotion.
Bradford @ 5.00
League 1 Each Way bets.
Scunthorpe @ 21.00
League 1 handicap.
Shrewsbury (+26)
League 2 Each Way bets.
Luton @ 8.00
Wycombe @ 29.00
League 2 handicap.
Accrington (+14)
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Matshopsy » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:29 am

Season long bet rather than ante post but i noticed Jonathon Kodija is back from injury for Villa, came on as a sub last night. 33/1 for top scorer got to be worth an E/w bet imo. Currant top scorer only has 5 - Bristol City's Bobby Ried. Couple on 4 goals. Think Kodija is a top player who could catch / suppass them all

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:10 pm

The problem Mat is Villa don't score enough goals so your guy would need to be getting a big percentage of those they do get.

Get on Huddersfeild @ 13/8 now for relegation, certs :-)

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