Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby SB2704 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:19 pm

League 1 looks as competitive as always this season but may just lack the strength of recent seasons. It is no surprise to see Blackburn at the head of the betting but feel they have been priced up on the basis of their name more than anything else. The squad looks pretty light to me and I can't help feeling they will find it tough to go straight back up. Rotherham looked out of their depth last season and it would be less of a surprise to see them struggling at the wrong end of the table this season than challenging for the promotion spots. Of the relegated teams, that leaves Wigan. Having seen Barnsley spend a lot of last season vying for the Championship playoffs and Burton successfully staying up, it would have been hugely disappointing for the Latics to get relegated at the first attempt, having seemed the best of the teams that came up from League 1 two seasons ago. Provided it does not take them too long to get that disappointment out of their system, they look a strong contender at this level. They have a ready made 20 goal a season striker in Will Grigg and the memory of winning this division two seasons ago. Outside of the teams who came down into the division, I would be looking at those who were in contention for promotion last season. With finishing positions of 7th, 5th and 5th in the last 3 seasons, Bradford can't be ruled out but I think they lack the goal power to make a serious tilt at the title while Fleetwood went from relegation contenders to promotion contenders last season. It remains to be seen if that was the start of something special or a one off. The team who finished above both Bradford and Fleetwood last season was Scunthorpe and I like their chances this time around. I backed them Each Way last season at 33/1 based on a fast finishing 7th the previous season and they seem to have been largely ignored by the bookmakers again. Being unfashionable is no bar to success in this division and at a level where player turnover is high, they have benefited from keeping a relatively settled squad including Paddy Madden - a striker who will be near the top of the scoring charts again this season.

At the other end of the table, it is usually the teams who are regularly near the drop zone who eventually fall through the trapdoor. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see Shrewsbury and Oldham amongst the favourites to go down. However, it's impossible to get away from the likelihood of Blackpool making an instant return to League 2. Last season they finished a country mile behind the automatic promotion spots but snuck into the playoffs and, to their credit, won through. Against a backdrop of fan boycotts, ongoing legal action and serious question marks over the club owners, it's amazing they got into League 1. In my mind, it would be a minor miracle if they could stay up.

Selections:

Wigan to win League 2 @ 8/1 e.w (bet365)
Scunthorpe to win League 2 @ 20/1 e.w (bet365)
Blackpool to be relegated @ 11/8 (bet365)

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby tbuckley » Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:07 am

Just coming across this & I will take the time to read through all the points made and add my views, I've got views on Mansfield for League 2 as I work in Mansfield & have recently spoken to people connected to the club, as I said I'll add more in the next few days.

I've just posted my first ante-post blog covering a look at a range of different markets in the Premier League including Top 4, Top half finish, relegation etc

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412781

as I said I've covered a range of various markets with views & selections, a market that has served me well in last few years has been Premier League relegation market and here are my thoughts on that from the blog :-

"So while I greatly respect what all fans put into supporting their teams & appreciate relegation is horrendous to experience, purely from a betting perspective the relegation market has been good to me and two clubs in my early sights this year are BURNLEY at 5/4 & BRIGHTON at 6/5 for relegation with Ladbrokes.

I honestly can't believe BRIGHTON are odds against, yes I respect they won the Championship & have a good manager with Premier League experience but right now they don't look like having a squad capable of staying up, I personally have them to get no more than 30 points maximum and clearly that won't be close to being enough points, if I'm wrong Brighton fans and you stay up then I will applaud you & hold my hands up.

As for BURNLEY then they got a lot of good praise & coverage last year for their amazing home record, vast majority of their 40 points came at home and yet that amazing home record was only good enough to see them finish 16th and only 6 points clear of what were mostly 3 pathetic Premier League teams.

While I'm a big fan of Sean Dyche, a fan of the way Burnley is run as a club, the spirit the fans show, I just don't believe they can match that stunning home record again and I don't see why their away form will improve to balance it up.
Burnley have lost key player Michael Keane from their defence, I don't think they've got enough goals in them and I just feel they'll be dropping back down to the Championship, I think Burnley to get relegated at 5/4 is worth taking, they face 3 huge away games in opening 6 matches and that 5/4 could well turn into 4/6 or shorter within a few weeks of season starting."

will run through this again in next few days & give my thoughts, top work by everybody involved as always :win:
Loving it on OLBG, on twitter @tbuckleythinks :

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby richmiester » Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:27 am

Starting to look at ante-post markets now it's getting close to the start of the season. What are people's opinion on top Premier League goal scorer next season? Looking at the market can see the obvious pick of Harry Kane at 3s and Lukaku at 4s but I like the look of Gabriel Jesus at 9s.

This is going to be his first full season in England but from what we saw last year before he got injured, he scored 7 in 10 appearances and got 4 assists. Man City are spending a lot of money this summer and if I am being honest I have them down as favourites for the league. Pep can't have a season like last year with 0 trophies but I expect to see an improved Man City this year with the players they have signed. Suppose one thing could be whether he plays both Aguero and Jesus up front or who he plays out the two when he plays only one? Judging by the amount of speculation last season and also recently, with Aguero being linked with Chelsea, I'd imagine as long as he stays injury free it be Jesus being favoured upfront.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby SB2704 » Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:23 pm

The trend in League 2 seems to be that teams who figured highly the previous season on the goals for and against stats without getting promoted tend to do well the next season. The other trend is that you don't necessarily need a striker near the top of the goalscoring charts at the end of the season (though it helps obviously) but you do need one who will at least get into double figures. The team who seem to fit that bill are Luton. They have a very fine goalscorer at this level in Danny Hylton and figured in the top six for both goals for and against last season. The disappointment of losing in the playoffs should not be a major handicap. Both Plymouth and Portsmouth lost in the 2015/16 playoffs before filling the top two positions whilst Burton, champions in 2014/15, had lost out in the playoffs in the previous two seasons.

Teams relegated from League 1 have a mixed record in their first season in League 2. However, one has found their way into the top three in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (though none as champions - a record that should have been put right by Doncaster last season). With that in mind, I think it should pay to look at the four teams who came down, at least with an Each Way bet in mind. Of the four, I like the outsider of the quartet in Port Vale. They know how to get out of this division and in Tom Pope, have a striker who scored a hatful last time the Vale were at this level.

Selections:

Luton to win League 2 e.w. @ 7/1 (bet365)
Port Vale to win League 2 e.w. @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby STEVEOCN » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:48 pm


Starting to look at ante-post markets now it's getting close to the start of the season. What are people's opinion on top Premier League goal scorer next season? Looking at the market can see the obvious pick of Harry Kane at 3s and Lukaku at 4s but I like the look of Gabriel Jesus at 9s.

This is going to be his first full season in England but from what we saw last year before he got injured, he scored 7 in 10 appearances and got 4 assists. Man City are spending a lot of money this summer and if I am being honest I have them down as favourites for the league. Pep can't have a season like last year with 0 trophies but I expect to see an improved Man City this year with the players they have signed. Suppose one thing could be whether he plays both Aguero and Jesus up front or who he plays out the two when he plays only one? Judging by the amount of speculation last season and also recently, with Aguero being linked with Chelsea, I'd imagine as long as he stays injury free it be Jesus being favoured upfront.

Hi Rich, followed you on twitter there!

To reply to your post I was only looking at the Premier League Top Goalscorer market over the weekend. I really like Alexandre Lacazette at 10/1 this season especially if Ozil and Sanchez both stay. 15-27-21-28 were his goals in Ligue 1 the last four seasons and he may well take the penalty duties aswell at the Emirates.

Bigger prices I wondered about the 40/1 about Manolo Gabbiadini at Southampton, could he have a big season? A friend of mine has told me to back Roberto Firmino at 50/1 with Paddy Power...now I am a Liverpool fan but not sure Firmino has 20 league goals in him but saying that with Salah Coutinho and Mane beside him he may well fire this season. Kelechi Iheanacho has moved to Leicester City and with Musa and Slimani not able to hold down a starting spot would the youngster play enough alongside Jamie Vardy to have a good run in the team because he will score goals.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:42 pm

Just coming across this & I will take the time to read through all the points made and add my views, I've got views on Mansfield for League 2 as I work in Mansfield & have recently spoken to people connected to the club, as I said I'll add more in the next few days.

I've just posted my first ante-post blog covering a look at a range of different markets in the Premier League including Top 4, Top half finish, relegation etc

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412781

as I said I've covered a range of various markets with views & selections, a market that has served me well in last few years has been Premier League relegation market and here are my thoughts on that from the blog :-

"So while I greatly respect what all fans put into supporting their teams & appreciate relegation is horrendous to experience, purely from a betting perspective the relegation market has been good to me and two clubs in my early sights this year are BURNLEY at 5/4 & BRIGHTON at 6/5 for relegation with target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/1/L3/D/words'>Ladbrokes>.

I honestly can't believe BRIGHTON are odds against, yes I respect they won the Championship & have a good manager with Premier League experience but right now they don't look like having a squad capable of staying up, I personally have them to get no more than 30 points maximum and clearly that won't be close to being enough points, if I'm wrong Brighton fans and you stay up then I will applaud you & hold my hands up.

As for BURNLEY then they got a lot of good praise & coverage last year for their amazing home record, vast majority of their 40 points came at home and yet that amazing home record was only good enough to see them finish 16th and only 6 points clear of what were mostly 3 pathetic Premier League teams.

While I'm a big fan of Sean Dyche, a fan of the way Burnley is run as a club, the spirit the fans show, I just don't believe they can match that stunning home record again and I don't see why their away form will improve to balance it up.
Burnley have lost key player Michael Keane from their defence, I don't think they've got enough goals in them and I just feel they'll be dropping back down to the Championship, I think Burnley to get relegated at 5/4 is worth taking, they face 3 huge away games in opening 6 matches and that 5/4 could well turn into 4/6 or shorter within a few weeks of season starting."

will run through this again in next few days & give my thoughts, top work by everybody involved as always :win:

I like your wirte up m8 and agree with your opinion of of Brighton. As I said previously I think Huddersfeild are definitely going down too. One small thing I have to pick you up on tho ( and it shows I read the whole post) ;-)
Brighton didn't win the Championship!.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:29 pm

Not sure if many bookies have priced up but Sky Bet have priced up the bottom 3 in the Premier League in the correct order.

Yes i know it's not going to be easy but i already think that Huddersfield & Burnley will struggle and probably go down.

The shortest priced treble is Huddersfield (Bottom), Brighton (19th) & Burnley (18th) and this is priced at 66/1.

I was just wondering if doing 5 or 6 bets for £4 each could keep me interested all season.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby richmiester » Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:57 pm

Looking at the SkyBet request-a-bet specials....they've priced up Dele Alli, Defoe, Rashford and Rodriquez to score 10+ league goals at 9/1 which appeals to me. Alli I expect to have another great season. Defoe scored goals in a struggling Sunderland side and I think he will get good service at Bournemouth. Rashford didn't score as many last season but think with the summer off, him and lukaku will thrive in attack for Man Utd and his already bagged a few in pre season. I suppose the only doubt would be Jay Rodriquez. His moved to West Brom for £12 million and feel for that kinda money Pulis will look to have him first choice next season. After his awful injury he missed a lot of football, he did score 5 last season but wasn't a regular starter and I feel if he plays regular football he is more then capable of scoring 10.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Micko70 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:13 pm

Not sure if many bookies have priced up but target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/42/L3/D/words'>SkyBet> have priced up the bottom 3 in the Premier League in the correct order.

Yes i know it's not going to be easy but i already think that Huddersfield & Burnley will struggle and probably go down.

The shortest priced treble is Huddersfield (Bottom), Brighton (19th) & Burnley (18th) and this is priced at 66/1.

I was just wondering if doing 5 or 6 bets for £4 each could keep me interested all season.
I have done a few of these. I think Brighton and Huddersfield are certs to go down so pick another and mix them up a but 66/1 and 80/1. Put them in Accas with teams to finish top half and always adding Celtic for a small increase. I also added Dundee Untd for Scottish Championship.
Good luck with those bets, i think i might do 6 and put all my eggs in 1 basket,
3 bets with Huddersfield 20th & Burnley 19th and 3 other sides 18th, then 3 bets with Burnley 20th, Huddersfield 19th and 3 other sides 18th

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby The Executioner » Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:14 pm

SB2704
Selections:

Wigan to win League 2 @ 8/1 e.w (bet365)
Scunthorpe to win League 2 @ 20/1 e.w (bet365)
Blackpool to be relegated @ 11/8 (bet365)
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Mr Blue » Wed Jul 26, 2017 4:56 pm

We have seen in previous seasons that Ante Post betting can be very lucrative, backing a team at say 14/1 and after 3 or 4 games they are into 8/1. Or Laying a short priced team and then them drifting giving you the ability of having a free no cost bet on that team.

I would suggest laying the top 3 teams in the betting for the Premier League

Chelsea
Man City
Man utd

and backing
Tottenham
Liverpool
Arsenal
Them seeing how long it takes for each of those 6 teams to be in profit for the title by trading out on them.
I like the basic idea. It's the kind of thing I'm doing in other non premiership non to win the league markets albeit with the bookies not Betfair (I bet accas throughout the season so no laying just betting)

But I wouldn't bet on Arsenal to win the league before they play Leicester at home in the first game :)

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