Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

nors
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Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby nors » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:29 am

Ok guys and gals please provide your best ante post advice for the new football season, at the end of the season we shall check and praise the ante post members who found winning bets.

Will the promoted teams struggle?

Will the relegated teams bounce back?

Which teams can not be trusted?

Which new managers will be out of a job by Christmas?

Which team are over priced to make the play offs?

What about European Leagues?

Which players will have a breakthrough season?

What prices do the bookmakers have wrong?

How will your team get on?

Find us some winning ante post bets please!!

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Micko70 » Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:26 pm

I have been looking at teams to get promoted and i was shocked to see that Mansfield (League 2) are 13/2 favourites to win the league and as short as Evens (best priced 5/4) to get promoted.

They finished 12th last season, and the season before.

Under Steve Evans (took over in November 2016), they have played 13 games, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 3, which is decent, but Evens to get promoted???

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby nors » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:55 am

We have seen in previous seasons that Ante Post betting can be very lucrative, backing a team at say 14/1 and after 3 or 4 games they are into 8/1. Or Laying a short priced team and then them drifting giving you the ability of having a free no cost bet on that team.

I would suggest laying the top 3 teams in the betting for the Premier League

Chelsea
Man City
Man utd

and backing
Tottenham
Liverpool
Arsenal
Them seeing how long it takes for each of those 6 teams to be in profit for the title by trading out on them.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby ian0318 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:32 am

the three teams that got promoted to the premiership to go back down again

Brighton-have not got the quality and chairman has said that he is not going to spend excessively -needs a couple of decent strikers-but they cost money.

huddersfield -teams promoted from playoffs have a terrible record and usually go straight back down.

newcastle- already rumours of a rift and benitez could quit over transfers- my opinion if ashley goes they stay up ,if not back to the championship

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby Micko70 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:00 am


newcastle- already rumours of a rift and benitez could quit over transfers- my opinion if ashley goes they stay up ,if not back to the championship
Rumours are just rumours, Graham Carr left his job as chief scout giving Rafa full control of all signings, there is plenty going on at the club, i will be amazed if Rafa leaves the club.

Good luck with your bet but its very rare that all 3 promoted clubs get relegated, not sure how many times this has happened.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:01 pm

I'm new here but looking for other like minded peoples views on the English leagues. I'm Scottish but prefer the English leagues for gambling although all my long term bets will include Celtic, even at 1/9 they are worth including in all bets as they should be certs.

I have already invested a good amount and I'm basing a lot of my bets on bankers Celtic and Huddersfield for relegation in the Prem.

I have also done a few bets with Sky bets relegation trebles as I think we have 2 starters in Huddersfield and Brighton and with minimum odds of 16/1 for the treble I think they are worth investing in. Name the bottom 3 in exact order minimum 66/1 I also like.

The other divisions I'm finding harder to predict so I'm leaning towards backing top half or top 6 or 7.

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby nors » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:36 am

Welcome hearts123 to OLBG, when was the last time all three promoted teams went straight back down, does anyone know? because the bookies will have based their ante post prices on historical stats ( + weight of money)

+ How many teams relegated from the Premier league returned the next season?

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:18 am


newcastle- already rumours of a rift and benitez could quit over transfers- my opinion if ashley goes they stay up ,if not back to the championship
Rumours are just rumours, Graham Carr left his job as chief scout giving Rafa full control of all signings, there is plenty going on at the club, i will be amazed if Rafa leaves the club.

Good luck with your bet but its very rare that all 3 promoted clubs get relegated, not sure how many times this has happened.
The answer is once during the Premiership / Premier League years. That was 1997/98 involving Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace.

In the last 8 seasons, 6 of the sides to have finished 17th in the PL the previous year (Sunderland, Aston Villa, QPR, Wolves, West Ham, and Hull) have been relegated the following season.

As for newly promoted clubs going straight back whence they came, in the last 9 seasons just 10 teams have suffered that fate.
In 22 years since the top flight was reduced to 20 teams, there have been 66 relegations but only 29 of those were promoted teams, of which 8 came up as champions, 8 as runners-up, and 13 via the playoffs.

Norwich, Sunderland, and Middlesbrough lead the way with most relegations from the P/PL (25 seasons) with 4 each. Eleven of the current top flight sides have never been relegated from the top flight in that time.

They are Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Huddersfield, Liverpool, Man Utd, Stoke, Swansea and Tottenham.

I agree that Newcastle look by far the most likely of this year's candidates to survive, with longer odds selections of Stoke, Southampton, Watford, and perhaps more controversially, Bournemouth, as being worth backing or trading.

Huddersfield look outclassed, and unless things change dramatically, Brighton have a similar profile to Middlesbrough inasmuch as they may be unable to win sufficient matches due to their lack of goals. That being the case, there may only be one more slot available.

As far as relegated teams bouncing straight back, I can find 17 in 25 years.
Last edited by davidg3907 on Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby nors » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:30 am

The answer is once during the Premiership / Premier League years. That was 1997/98 involving Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace.

So that leaves as most likely relegated

Burnley 2.4
Watford 2.75
Swansea 3.25
Crystal Palace 6.0

At the odds then surely Crystal Palace (and sorry Palace fans) must be the pre season bet and trade. They also have a new manager so it will take time to get his ideas across. The Eagles have an easyish start but at the end of September early October they have these 3 fixtures. They will need points on the board ahead of these games.
23: Manchester City (a) - 15:00
30: Manchester United (a) - 15:00
14: Chelsea (h) - 15:00

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby hearts123 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:51 pm

Thanks for the great Stats. I really can't see Huddersfield surviving and I'm almost as convinced with Brighton. Along with my many other bets I am thinking of a large punt on the following. What are your thoughts? I'm quite open to criticism if it saves me money :-)

Huddrsfeild releg
Fulham top half
Bradford top half
Luton top half
Celtic

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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:43 pm

League 1.

Many of the teams that finish in the playoffs (or very close to them) tend to fare quite well the next season but without producing too many champions. For this reason, initial thoughts turn to the handicap market if the likes of Bradford, Fleetwood, and Southend are favourably treated.

League 2.

Battle hardened teams from this level the previous season tend to do well in terms of champions and promotion. The problem here though is that so many teams were in the running for playoff places until the final day of the last campaign. Mansfield head the market and will almost certainly be the scratch team in the handicap lists. They may win the title, but at odds between 9/2 and 6/1 hardly represent value at this stage, and I would be surprised if they won it by a sufficient margin to cover handicaps and ward off teams such as Luton, Exeter, Wycombe, Accrington, and possibly even Lincoln who were promoted from the Conference. Decisions can be made nearer the start of the season once handicap markets have been formed.
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Re: Ante Post Football Betting 2017/18 Season

Postby The Executioner » Tue Jul 04, 2017 1:53 pm

It's rare that I get involved in the ante post markets, but earlier today couldn't resist having an interest on Everton to be top at Christmas @60/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook ( who almost immediately cut the odds to 25's ) , given the amount of money that they are spending pre season it wouldn't surprise me if they were quick out of the blocks and close to the pace, I can't see them near good enough to take the title but the 60's looked hugely over the odds to be leaders at the festive period. If the new players all gel then a push towards Europe could be on the cards for the end of the season. I can see the price shortening further before the start of the campaign and a 20/1 quote could be more realistic.
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