Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 13904
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby nors » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:49 pm

On the betting blogs and systems forum members trial their systems over a period of time to try and glean a profit.

This section of OLBG is popular but in many cases new members miss it. We thought it would be interesting if members could monitor a system on the main footy forum over a short period of time and 2 members have volunteered to put their system selections up for closer scrutiny (very brave).

From Monday 10th Feb they will add their selections in a head to head battle to see which members system can glean the biggest LSP over 2 weeks of selections.

Both will explain their system in their opening posts and we can all see their success and failures.

In truth it would be great if both made a healthy profit but there will only be 1 winner after 2 weeks.

Good luck to both

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby mathsbet » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:02 pm

Good luck to Horage, and thanks to Nors for facilitating what will hopefully be a mutually profitable demonstration of systematic betting.

I have been betting systematically for a couple of years now, and I use a couple of systems in conjunction with each other in order to identify value bets. The two main systems I use will project a scoreline for each game.

One system is based on goals, and aims to quantify a value for every goal scored by each team depending on who scores and who concedes, as well as the venue (home/away); the other system is slightly more complicated and revolves around shots on target. Again, the aim is to give values to each shot on target achieved, and use these values to project future shots on target given the values ascribed to the opposing team.

This expected shots on target total can then be translated into expected goals using the relevant conversion rate for shots on target scored and conceded of the teams concerned.

I am running a separate blog in the systems section to detail the outcomes when both scoreline projection systems agree on a correct score. It is off to a good start but it's early doors. That blog is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=62171

Anyway, the main point of these systems is not for the purposes of correct score betting, which is too volatile and risky for my tastes. The point is to give values which can be translated into probabilities of win-draw-lose, so that I can frame odds which are in line with true probabilities.

Using these systems, I then produce prices for the game, and then compare my prices to those available on the market. I usually find 15-20 value bets from across the top European leagues. The value is often to be found in backing teams in mid table, and in opposing famous teams, particularly on the handicap markets when they are priced long odds-on for the win in the 1x2 market.

I have listed the selections below with my price, derived from these systems, and the market price. All of the prices quoted are the prices available in the OLBG tipping competition at the time the tip was submitted. Write-ups for the selections can be found on my tips page: https://www.olbg.com/tipster/index.php?id=352115

English Premier
Saturday
15.00 West Ham Utd v West Brom
Away or draw double chance
My price 1/2 -- Market 22/31

15.00 Sunderland v Southampton
Home or draw
My price 1/2 -- Market 22/25

15.00 Man Utd v Watford
Watford +1.75 handicap
My price 2/5 -- Market 10/11

Spain
Sat
12.00 Real Betis v Valencia
Home win, draw no bet
My price 2/5 -- Market 39/50

15.15 Alaves v Barcelona
Alaves +1.5 handicap
My price 1/2 -- Market 24/25

17.30 Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo La Coruna
Home win
My price 4/9 -- Market 7/10

Sun
17.30 Las Palmas v Sevilla
Home win
My price 11/10 -- Market 9/4


France
Sat
19.00 Toulouse v SC Bastia
Home win
My price 4/5 -- Market 10/11

19.00 Nancy v Montpellier
Home win, draw no bet
My price 1/2 -- Market 37/50

19.00 Monaco v Metz
Home win
My price 1/7 -- Market 1/4

19.00 Dijon v Caen
Home win, draw no bet
My price 4/9 -- Market 20/29


Germany Bundesliga 1
14.30 Darmstadt v B Dortmund
Away win
My price 1/6 -- Market 2/5

14.30 Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Away or draw
My price 1/2 -- Market Evs

14.30 Werder Bremen v B Monchengladbach
Home or draw double chance
My price 2/5 -- Market 3/5

Sun
14.30 Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Away win
My price 6/5 -- Market 47/25


Portugal Premier
Saturday
16.00 Vitoria de Setubal v Chaves
Home win, draw no bet
My price 4/9 -- Market 31/50

Sunday
18.00 Moreirense v Sporting
Away win
My price 4/9 -- Market 3/5

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby mathsbet » Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:05 am

Well, that was a disaster. My worst weekend in two seasons. In real life, the loss was compensated by a large correct score profit, but in terms of win-draw-wins, the performance has been shocking. Even Darmstadt won! Their first win in twelve games, and it comes against Dortmund. It was that kind of weekend. In the same way that a team which is 6-0 down at half time still comes out looking for a consolation, I will post selections next week in the hope of mitigating the losses.

15.00 West Ham Utd v West Brom Away or draw double chance 1.71
15.00 Sunderland v Southampton Home or draw
15.00 Man Utd v Watford Watford +1.75 handicap (half loss, half push)
12.00 Real Betis v Valencia Home win, draw no bet Void
15.15 Alaves v Barcelona Alaves +1.5 handicap
17.30 Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo La Coruna Home win 1.70
17.30 Las Palmas v Sevilla Home win
19.00 Toulouse v SC Bastia Home win 1.92
19.00 Nancy v Montpellier Home win, draw no bet
19.00 Monaco v Metz Home win 1.25
19.00 Dijon v Caen Home win, draw no bet 1.69
14.30 Darmstadt v B Dortmund Away win
14.30 Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt Away or draw
14.30 Werder Bremen v B Monchengladbach Home or draw double chance
14.30 Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim Away win

16.00 Vitoria de Setubal v Chaves Home win, draw no bet Void
18.00 Moreirense v Sporting Away win 1.60

LSP: -4.63 -27%

horage
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1841
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby horage » Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:38 am

ha ha been posting on the wrong page.....

The SUPERNOVA 42 .IS A SIMPLE SYSTEM MOST MEMBERS CAN FOLLOW WITHOUT TOO MUCH FUSS.

The selection criteria are

1 the selection must be 3 or more places higher than opponents in the league

2 the odds of the selection must be 2/5 or bigger.

These two simple criteria form the basis of my system supernova 42....before i run my filters .... for final selections.

Lets hope it can make a profit over the next too weeks.

Horages SUPERNOVA 42 football system.....Saturdays results 10 selections ; 8 winners ; LSP 4.5 ...STRIKE RATE 80%...

STOKE
BRIGHTON
NORWICH
HUDDERSFIELD
READING
MILLWALL
SCUNTHORPE
LUTON
MANSFIELD
PORTSMOUTH

I will post up the next selections on tuesday....good luck mathsbet.

horage
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1841
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby horage » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:56 pm

HORAGES SUPERNOVA 42 FOOTBPALL SYSTEM TIPS . TUESDAY 14TH

BRIGHTON 11/20 DRAW
HUDDERSFIELD 27/37 WON
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 31/50 WON
MILLWALL 1/2 WON
NORTHAMPTON 19/20 WON
LUTON 3/5 WON
MANSFIELD 11/10 DRAW
PORTSMOUTH 3/4 WON
PLYMOUTH 4/6 LOST

All matches win singles.

Not much value around tonight but lets hope some of these come in . :hope:

close but no cigar tonight 6 out of 9 correct ..... strike rate 66.666% ....LSP 1.2

Systems running total LSP 5.2.......

Crofty well at least you did not lose ... :lol:
Last edited by horage on Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 13904
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby nors » Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:12 am

Well done Horage with your LSP, Mathsbet i suspect just one of those days.

Crofty11
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby Crofty11 » Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:30 pm

I know i shouldn't , but given my complete lack of success this month , I've had a small wager on the horage picks.....there goes your LSP for tonight!!

GL

horage
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1841
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby horage » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:31 am

After 2 rounds of the SUPERNOVA 42 FOOTBALL BETTING SYSTEM L.S.P 5.7 and 73 % STRIKE RATE..

Saturdays selections

CARDIFF 9/17
CAMBRIDGE UTD 10/11

both win singles


That's all that made it through the filters out of three divisions this weekend. :hope:

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby mathsbet » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:50 am

Have done some recalibration of my odds ahead of this week's round, so would be hopeful of recovering at least some of the ground lost last weekend:

England Championship
Sat
15.00 Barnsley v Brighton and Hove
Home or draw
My price 5/13 - Market 44/53

15.00 Cardiff City v Rotherham United
Away +1.5 handicap
My price 4/11 - Market 6/10

15.00 Burton Albion v Norwich
Home or draw
My price 1/2 - Market 10/11

15.00 Nottingham Forest v Sheffield Wednesday
Home or draw
My price 10/41 - Market 36/59

Monday
20.00 Newcastle v Aston Villa
Home win
My price 2/5 - Market 8/13

France
Fri
19.45 SC Bastia v Monaco
Away win
My price 2/5 - market 1/2

Sat
16.00 Marseille v Rennes
Home win 4/7 - Market 3/4


Portugal
Sat
16.00 Chaves v Arouca
Away or draw
My price 6/10 - Market 4/5

16.00 Moreirense v Estoril
Away or draw
My price 6/10 - Market 3/4

Sun
20.15 Braga v Benfica
Home or draw
My price 1/2 - Market 23/20

Mon
20.00 Maritimo v Nacional
Home win
My price 4/7 - market 47/50

Germany BL1
Sat
14.30 Mainz v Werder Bremen
Home win
My price 2/7 - Market Evens

14.30 B Dortmund v Wolfsburg
Home win
My price 2/9 - Market 9/20

14.30 Eintracht Frankfurt v Ingolstadt
Home win
My price 4/7 - Market 23/20

14.30 Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich
home +1.5 handicap
My price 2/7 - Market 4/6

14.30 Hoffenheim v Darmstadt
Home win
My price 1/6 - Market 1/2

Sun
16.30 Koln v Schalke
Home win
My price 4/6 - Market 31/20

Spain
Sat
12.00 Sporting Gijon v Atletico Madrid
Away 2/5 - Market 9/17

Sun
11.00 Real Sociedad v Villareal
Away +1.5 handicap
My price 1/6 - Market 2/7

19.45 Barcelona v Leganes
Barcelona to win to nil
My price 2/5 - Market 8/15
Last edited by mathsbet on Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RACHACE
Classic Winner
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 983
Joined: Sat May 04, 2013 11:00 pm

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby RACHACE » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:39 pm

Good luck lads. This thread has the potential to be a cracker. Could be very useful for all other users of the website.
Read my blog on Arsenal v Man City
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412497

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby mathsbet » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:29 pm

Perhaps since this is a system thread, it might be useful to explain a little bit what I mean by recalibrating my odds, as it may assist people who are new to building systems in their process.

By recalibrating the odds, I simply mean going back and imputting past results into a list or database, categorised by the outcomes projected by the systems, so for example, if one system said 2-1 home win and the other said 1-1 draw, and the outcome was a draw, that would be entered as: home1, draw, draw. In this way, you can break down games by category, and when you have a few dozen or, better yet, a couple of hundred or more, results in each category, you can then give pretty accurate odds in terms of the true probability of those events occurring.

The thing about breaking down results in this way is that it could even make a poor system profitable in some way you might not have considered. You might find that one or two particular categories seem to produce outcomes which are significant in terms of variation with the market, or you might even find that your projected home wins produce a large number of away wins or draws, in which case, you might find that effectively betting against your system is profitable.

My prices have changed a bit since the last round, as I had not entered the numbers for the last couple of month's of results or for two season simulations I did in the meantime, so there a large number of outcomes to imput, which brought the numbers up to date.

As an example of how the new results moved the odds in significant ways, the true odds for the draw in the 'draw, draw' category, when both systems predict a draw, have gone from 21/10 to 23/10, which means that backing the draw will almost never be value, since the price is rarely bigger than 23/10, but significantly, the 'draw, draw' category produces an almost even distribution of home and away wins, so this category of games produces true odds of home or draw of 1/2 and true odds for away or draw of 6/10. This allows us to find serious value in the double chance on occasions when one side is heavily favoured in the market.

The new prices were in line with the market in about half of the games this week, though as you can see, there were some very wide variations in some of the odds offered in terms of my estimation and the market price. The first league I did this week was Spain and, as you can see, it's slim pickings there, so I initially thought the new prices might have basically turned the system into a mirror of the market, and I glumly trudged through the Bundesliga fixtures, only to find some pretty astonishing variations between my odds and the market. Almost every home win in the Bundesliga seems to offer enormous value, according to my data. Given last week's form, stand by for a freakish series of away wins in the Bundesliga!

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Mathsbet Football Betting System v Horage Football Betting System

Postby mathsbet » Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:21 am

Nobody is giving prizes for backing what turned out to be a loser, but it was interesting to see that Monaco to beat Bastia was at 2/5 by kick off. I took it at 1/2 because I thought it should be 2/5. This seems to happen more often than not with these selections, and the value is often gone by kick off.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wonderwall, zendenpen