Underdog of the weekend week 24

[Crofty11]

Friday 10th 7.45

Ausberg to beat Mainz 3-1 with Betway

Ausberg have steadied the ship over the last few months, winning their last two in row, they have lost only 1 in the last 5 and drawn with dortmund. Mainz are having a bit more trouble winning only 1 of their last 5 losing two and drawing two. Likely I am being influence by the fact the I backed Ausberg against bremen last time out, where they last a 2-0 lead but had the resilience to get a late winner.

[undertherobe]

Sutton United have been pretty poor away from home in the league, picking up just two points from their last eleven games, scoring just six time in the process and with an FA Cup game with Arsenal on the horizon, their minds could be elsewhere.

Solihull haven't been anything special this season, but they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in the league and won 3-1 at Sutton earlier in the year and they look far too big a price in this one.

Solihull Moors vs Sutton United
Solihull Moors to win @ 19/10 (bet365) Sat 3pm

[mazeymay]

Very surprising this week as three of the five teams I had pencilled in have been selected by others and the
4th team are no longer the underdog and the opposition has been selected. Hopefully for the sake of the thread
and those members it is a case of great minds think alike and not that we're barking up the wrong tree. I didn't
have the selections in any particular order so I'm still happy to go along with my other one

National League North
Bradford Park Avenue 10/11 v Gainsborough 69/25
Two of the divisions strugglers meet here as Bradford PA in 20th welcome Gainsborough who are 17th and four
points better off. Bradford have struggled at home all season, though the two home wins they have gained have
come in the last five home games against Brackley who are 11th and 16th placed Alfreton. Their home record
reads two wins, three draws and nine losses with a 14-30 goal difference
Gainsborough aren't much stronger on the road with three wins, three draws and eight losses and a 20-34 goal
record. However, they have gained two of those wins and two of their draws in the last four road games so do
arrive in better shape and overall have suffered just two losses in the last eight league games. For those who
like to follow historical h2h games Gainsborough have won here for the last two seasons and on three of their
last four visits, going back to December 2012
The price for the away win looks appealing on hosts home versus visitors away form and overall recent form

[mazeymay]

stretchpaul..Young Boys to win away at 9/5 or 2.80 Sunday 3-00pm
Switzerland Super League

Baz2014.. Burton Albion to win away at 13/2 or 7.50 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

Devilimp..Morecambe to win at home at 14/5 or 3.80 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 2

Inquisitorem..Sunderland to win at home at 14/5 or 3.80 Saturday 3-00pm
England Premier League

mathsbet..Las Palams to win at home at 9/4 or 3.25 Sunday 5-30pm
Spain La Liga

nors..Plymouth Argyle to win at home at 19/10 or 2.88 Saturday 3-00pm
England League 2

Crofty11..Augsburg to win away at 3/1 or 4.0 Friday 7-45pm
Germany Bundesliga

undertherobe..Solihull Moors to win at home at 19/10 or 2.90 Saturday 3-00pm
England National League

mazeymay..Gainsborough to win away at 69/25 or 3.76 Saturday 3-00pm
England National North

risto123..Jagiellonia Bialystok to win away at 13/5 or 3.61 Sunday 5-00pm
Poland Ekstraklasa

bigmoose..Rotherham to win at home at 41/20 or 3.05 Saturday 3-00pm
England Championship

[risto123]

Sun 12th Feb
Poland Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdansk - Jagiellonia Bialystok
17:00

Jagiellonia to win @3.61 in Pinnacle

Ekstraklasa returns from the winter break and what would be better than to see current top 2 going head-to-head straight away.
Lechia Gdansk won all 4 friendlies during the winter break. However things didnt go aswell for Jagiellonia as drew 2 and lost 2 of the 4 midseason friendlies. But luckily for them result in friendlies isn't that important(although it's always nice to win.) Both teams have won 12, drew 3 and lost 5 of the 20 leaguegames this season and after they both went to the winter break with a defeat i'm pretty sure neither team wants to start 2017 like they ended 2016.
Lechia Gdansk have been pretty solid at home this season with losing just once at home. And even that was back in august. And you have to stay in august to find a game when was the last time Jagiellonia didn't get a single point on the road. Lechia Gdansk have won last 3 h2h games and they haven't lost h2h homegame in 4 years. But with both teams just returning from their training camps in Turkey(or wherever it wasn't held) i see both teams struggling here and like in previous h2h game i think this game is decided by 1 goal.

[bigmoose]

Some interesting posts here. Personally i'm really struggling this week, especially as I only bet on english league football. Some thoughts:

Championship
Lots of the underdogs are big odds due to being the away side at some strong opponents home grounds. As much as i can see Ipswich (at Villa), Barnsley (at Reading) and Brentford (at Preston) getting something out of their games I can't find any logical reason to think they really can win.
At home there's two underdogs - QPR, who face an on fire Huddersfield who have just played Brighton and Leeds off the park in their last two matches, and Rotherham:
Rotherham (3.05) vs Blackburn (2.5) - Rotherham, bottom of the table by a long way, lost their last home match 1-0 to Barnsley but prior to that won their previous 3 at home (vs Norw, Wigan and QPR). They seem quite competitive at home, more so recently, and even 6 of thier 7 home defeats have been by a 1 goal margin. Blackburn away have a WDL record of 2-2-9 for the season, scoring just 12 away goals. In a weak skinny on opportunities Rotherham don't look a bad bet at all, especially as home to bottom half teams this season they are 2-3-2 (WDL).

League One
Home teams Bolton (1.83), Bury (2.25), Northampton (1.85) and Gillingham (1.88) are all in the sort of poor runs of form that makes those small odds look perfect to oppose. Until you see the away form of their respective opponents Walsall, Swindon, Chesterfield and Port Vale. D'oh.
One home underdog in this league in Bristol Rovers (2.80) home to Bradford. Tempting as Rovers are most definitely a home team, although Bradford are hard to beat and i'm unsure how Rovers will go after the sale of top scorer Matty Taylor.

League Two
Four odds-on favourites in this league, which is a bit rare in this division. The away team underdogs look absolutely woeful on the road mind. Except my team Pompey are making such a mess of things again at the mo i can see Accrington taking a point, or worse all three.
And two good tips in this thread already regard the home underdogs Plymouth (3.00) and Morecambe (3.85)

Week 24 Pick
Rotherham @ 3.05 (home to Blackburn)

[mazeymay]

We had another good turnout on the thread with eleven members posting selections
Three members managed to find a winning underdog, congratulations to
Devilimp with Morecambe at 14/5 who won 2-0 against Cambridge, highlighting the home sides recent good form
nors with Plymouth at 19/10, whose price drifted quite a bit but they disposed of in form Exeter with an easy 3-0 win
and he also highlighted the possibility of a penalty for the hosts which did happen
undertherobe who spotted a decent opportunity with Solihull Moors at 19/10 who beat Sutton 3-0 and as he mentioned
the visitors chose to rest some regulars ahead of their cup match with Arsenal in eight days time

The biggest priced winning underdog this weekend is Devilimp with a 14/5 winner
he also wrote out a decent post and wins £5 for this weekend courtesy of OLBG
Well done Devilimp, I will ask OLBG to award the prize

Thanks to everyone for joining in again
Next weekend is FA cup 5th round, will there be a winning underdog from those games ?