Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Nathan249
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Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby Nathan249 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:34 am

Hi Guys,

I'm completely new to the site, and i'm mainly seeking some input about a bet that I currently have running. This is a season long bet that is based on each team winning their respective league. The teams on this bet are Man Utd, Newcastle Utd, Sheffield Utd and Plymouth. I placed a fiver on this with the potential returns of £ 9,900.00.

Now this is were i'm seeking a little input on what you guys would do, ultimately I want to try and make the most money possible, my current cash out value is at £ 430.00 - I'm putting this down to mainly Man Utd's poor season and the fact Chelsea are well ahead in the prem (if only i'd backed Chelsea). bet365 have added a feature since placing this bet to edit teams out of the bet, this places my current cash out value onto a treble of Newcastle, Sheffield and Plymouth,this would return £ 4,396.43 as I would want to remove Man Utd since they're not going to gain the 14 points and win the title. Newcastle and Sheffield are currently top of their leagues, Plymouth being 2nd behind Doncaster and 5 points off but with a game in hand, if won it would bring them to within 2 points.

My question to the forum is in my position what would you do? - I'm not going to take any answers as gospel and blame you, i'm going to try and get a general feel for the advise and make my decision, ultimately i know it's up to me.

Cheers

stretchpaul
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby stretchpaul » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:44 am

Tricky one.If Plymouth should go top of the league then the cash out amount will rocket.They dont score as many as Doncaster but concede less which suggests they might not get over the finishing line first in front of Doncaster.Sheff Utd are not clear cut either as they are not in the best of form right now.Newcastle for me will win the Championship though.If you cashed out now you could come away with a tidy sum and then if the treble does not come up its still a decent amount in the bank.If you wait then you will need a bit of luck and the stats are not really in your favor to be honest.

mathsbet
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby mathsbet » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:40 pm

If I were you, I would bite their hand off for the cash out value. Man Utd have no chance of winning the PL, as you say, and your bet will be worthless if you wait around for a while longer. Since you have no chance of actually winning the bet, I would advise to cash out and congratulate yourself on making a massive profit from a losing bet!

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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby ian0318 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:03 pm

totally agree with mathsbet -cash out with a healthy profit

Nathan249
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby Nathan249 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:08 pm

totally agree with mathsbet -cash out with a healthy profit
Well this is what I am thinking of doing.

But there's still that idea of potential 4k when editing Man Utd from the bet, it does then replace your cash out value which will almost definitely be the biggest bet i've ever placed in terms of money staked. All it would take is Plymouth to lose their game in hand and Scunthorpe to win there's and it'll plummet in value and that's what i'm most uncertain about, because should scunthorpe lose their game in hand and plymouth win there's it would surely rocket in price.

Either way i've come to the conclusion I probably won't be happy with the decision I make

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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby Cantrill04 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:16 pm

Doncaster will win League Two. Take the money.

mathsbet
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby mathsbet » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:49 pm

There will always be 'what if's, but the bottom line is that your fiver has turned into a lot more than a fiver, whereas if you let the bet run, it will decay towards zero. To me, it looks like United are only ever going to get longer and longer for the league, so I don't think time is on your side. Take the money and run!

getonit123
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby getonit123 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:45 pm

I think I would cash out. I think Sheffield and Doncaster will win their leagues.

I have a similar bet but I don't think the cash out is available or if it is it probably isn't worth it. I had Chelsea, Scunthorpe and Carlisle e.w. I just think Sheffield and Doncaster will prove too strong - and Carlisle also have Plymouth and Exeter to contend with.

Good luck whatever you decide to do

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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby getonit123 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:48 pm

I also think it's worth doing Each Way if you throw in a value selection like Plynouth. Did you get 12/1 on them?

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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby Crofty11 » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:26 pm

If you delete Man U , will you lose any cash out available?

If you lose the cash out then the treble needs to win...

I personally would take the option of deleting Man U cross my fingers and hope that the treble comes up..

After all it is a bet for a season...and you have got rid of the obvious loser

mathsbet
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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby mathsbet » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:46 pm

Editing the bet will not be any more beneficial than cashing out the bet. If you 'edit' the bet, you will essentially be cashing it out and then putting the total on a new accumulator consisting of some of the original bets. Whereas, if the bet is cashed out, you can then decide what proportion of the cash out you wish to put on that bet if you do want to continue with the treble minus Man United, or doubles, or singles even, it will be your choice. If you edit the bet, bet365 will just recalculate it at current odds anyway, whereas if you cash it out, you might even find better odds with another bookie for the season long bets that you wish to do.

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Re: Season Long Bet - Cash out Conundrum

Postby bigmoose » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:47 pm

Editing the bet will not be any more beneficial than cashing out the bet. If you 'edit' the bet, you will essentially be cashing it out and then putting the total on a new accumulator consisting of some of the original bets. Whereas, if the bet is cashed out, you can then decide what proportion of the cash out you wish to put on that bet if you do want to continue with the treble minus Man United, or doubles, or singles even, it will be your choice. If you edit the bet, bet365> will just recalculate it at current odds anyway, whereas if you cash it out, you might even find better odds with another bookie for the season long bets that you wish to do.
I wondered how the removing a team from your acca for "free" worked. Yep a Newc, SheffU, Plymouth acca is arounf 10/1 - 13/1 depending on the bookie. Thats because plymouth are anything for 7/2 to 5/1 with various bookies. I'd just be celebrating i'd got £430 win from a losing bet. But yes taking the cashout option now and putting £100 of it on the 3 team 12/1(ish) acca seems the way to go for someone not wanting to take the "win" now. Personally I'd snatch their arm off for all of that £430 now. Plymouth choked last year when on for winning the league and this season they still have away trips to nearly every team in the top half of the league. Donny are winning League2 for me.
Steve

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