Value Odds (or not)

Kop Kat
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Value Odds (or not)

Postby Kop Kat » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:25 pm

Hi,

Just trying to determine a cut-off point for value odds.

For example, if I price up odds for a team to win at 2.15 and the bookmakers offer 3.0, that is almost a 40% increase on true odds.

The problem is, do we accept that as value or a come-on?

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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:52 pm

Actually, that is a 73.91% increase, so unless there was a very good reason NOT to accept those odds, why would you not do so :?
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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby Kop Kat » Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:05 pm

Yes, sorry, the 40% difference is between the displayed odds and not the odds as percentages, if you know what I mean.

What I am trying to establish is where someone would take a generous increase in odds as value and where we consider it has maybe the bookmaker knowing something negative about the team, hence the hike in odds.

Another example, if you priced a team at say 2.75 and odds available were 4.2 is that still value or a negative?

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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:25 pm

This time your extra value is about 84%.

If every bookmaker is 84% above your odds, there are just 4 possibilities in my view if there is no obvious reason.

1. Every bookmaker has got hold of information unavailable to you; that is fairly unlikely.
2. There is information out there that you have missed; that too should be unlikely with all the media sources around.
3. You were a long way out with your calculations; that depends on how well you trust them.
4. You were right all along; fill your boots.

Incidentally,
If displayed odds are 3.00 and your estimate is 2.00, do you consider that to be 50% or 100% better :?
If displayed odds are 2/1 and your estimate is Evens, do you consider that to be 50% or 100% better :?
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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby mathsbet » Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:33 pm

I think David has pretty much summed it up. It comes down to whether you have confidence in your prices. Have they been tried, tested and shown to be sharper than the market over a large number of bets? If you have confidence in this hypothetical price, and you find the market way out of line, and there is no apparent reason for this (and unless the bookies have some top secret information, whatever information that is out there has already been factored into the price), then as David says, you fill your boots.

I understand the point being made though. It certainly does give pause when you find your prices way out of line with the market. The most recent time I had this experience was in the week, when I literally couldn't believe that Burnley were at 2/1 to beat Leicester, and thought it might be a palpable error until I checked on another site. That said, needless to say it's quite rare to come across an 8/11 shot (as I figured Burnley to be) that is priced at 2/1.

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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 6:57 pm

Hi,

Just trying to determine a cut-off point for value odds.

For example, if I price up odds for a team to win at 2.15 and the bookmakers offer 3.0, that is almost a 40% increase on true odds.

The problem is, do we accept that as value or a come-on?
I suppose the other way of looking at this is as follows.

If YOU think the odds should be 5.00 and the bookmakers have it at 2.25, would you be rushing to back it because the bookies knew something you didn't :?

I think the fairest thing to say is either to trust your judgment and back something else (there must be value elsewhere as per your original post) or leave the event well alone.

You price something at 2.15; by coincidence, Watford were 2.15 BOKO (Best Odds at Kick Off) today against Burnley, with the draw at 3.30 and Burnley at 4.25 - a book of 100.34%. Let's assume you priced the draw 3.30 and Burnley 4.25 in line with the bookies

Changing Watford to 3.00 BOKO would result in the other odds changing too. So maybe now Watford 3.00 Draw 3.10 Burnley 2.68 which is 100.33%.

If you now want to swerve Watford because the odds are high and have really become BAD value, it follows that backing the draw at 3.10 or Burnley (much shorter) at 2.68 has become GOOD value.

If this only happened occasionally, and there was no apparent reason for it, my instinct would be to trust my judgment.

If it happened regularly, I would rewrite the program. :D
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Re: Value Odds (or not)

Postby Mr Blue » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:49 pm

I was searching for something and this thread came up.
I think this is an interesting thread since despite the huge number of threads on the internet I myself have never come across anyone asking this question.

Now of course some may believe that's because the answer is obvious . But I tend to believe it's a great question.

I felt like replying straight away because I'm so pleased to find something interesting on a gambling forum but right now the only thing I can add is that in the case of the cited Burnley Leicester example it should have been rather easy for anyone to have come up with a very plausible reason as to why the odds could be so wrong.
And of course that should be the first thing you do when you see odds that are wrong in your favour;

IE Ask yourself if there's an obvious reason why they could be wrong.

And I really don't think I should insult the intelligence of those on here by explaining why those odds would have been wrong.

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