Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

garlicsauce
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11613
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: RCT

Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby garlicsauce » Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:54 pm

Discussion & Selections on all NON UK Games for Saturday and Sunday (including)..........................................


Please see Africa Cup of Nations thread here - viewtopic.php?f=3&t=61844

SAT -
German Bundesliga - Bayern Munich v Schalke - ko 14.30
Italy Serie A - Bologna v Napoli - ko 19.45
Dutch Eredivisie - AZ v PSV - ko 18.45
Spain Primera - Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao - ko 15.15
Portugal Primeira - Porto v Sporting - ko 20.30

SUN -
France Ligue 1 - Saint Etienne v Lyon - ko 20.00
Italy Serie A - Juve v Inter - ko 19.45
Spain Primera - Sevilla v Villarreal - ko 11.00
Australia A League - Central Coast Mariners v Adelaide Utd - ko 06.00
Turkey Cup - Besiktas v Fenerbahce - ko 17.30


Plenty more games on this weekend. What will you be watching and betting on?
Please try and give a short explanation so that your bets and opinions can help others.

Micko70
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7614
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:00 am
Location: Newcastle

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby Micko70 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:03 pm

The top 2 in France go head to head on Saturday when Monaco host Nice.

They are both level on points at present with 49 each, Monaco have a home record of 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, whilst Nice have an away record of 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat, but they have only conceded 7 goals on the road.

Monaco drew 1-1 at PSG in their last league game and Nice have already drawn 2-2 at PSG just before Christmas and were leading 2-0 at half time.

If Nice can score first here then i think the current odds of 5/1 are a huge price, but the bet i am interested in is the 7/5 on offer on the Double Chance market for Nice

titans choice
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1573
Joined: Sun May 03, 2015 11:00 pm

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby titans choice » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:38 pm

If Nice can score first here then i think the current odds of 5/1 are a huge price, but the bet i am interested in is the 7/5 on offer on the Double Chance market for Nice
[/quote]

If I am reading the stats right Nice have scored 3 times in the first 15 mins of their away games in the league so far this season and have not conceded in the first 15 mins of any of them and they have scored a total 7 goals in the first half of their away games and conceded just 3 in the first half.But Monaco have scored 38 goals in 11 home games in the league so Nice have started away games well this season but Monaco are the highest scoring team in the league.

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1823
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:47 pm

I wouldn't normally be shouting from the rooftops about an odds-on shot, but if I were to put the proverbial house on any game this weekend, it would be Eintracht Frankfurt to beat Darmstadt on Sunday at 16.30 in the German Bundesliga (best price 31/50 or 1.62 with Betway, generally available at 4/7 or 1.57).

I believe that Frankfurt should be at 3/10 to win this home tie against probably the most opposable team in any top league in Europe at this moment. Darmstadt are rooted to the bottom of the Bundesliga, and all but certain to be relegated. They have not only failed to win any of their away games, they actually have the only perfectly bad away record in the league, with 8 defeats from 8. It's not as though they are much better at home, where they have mustered 2 wins from 10 games.

Darmstadt have been on a run of form so bad that it almost defies belief. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games (the exception being a home draw with Monchengladbach, who are so terrible away from home that they couldn't even win that one). In their most recent game, Darmstadt were hammered 6-1 by mid-table Koln. To make matters worse, they were playing in front of their own fans.

Frankfurt, by contrast, are third in the table, entirely on merit, and are undefeated at home this season, with 5 wins and 3 draws. They won their 3 home games against teams in the bottom half of the league. Perhaps the fact that Darmstadt won the earlier fixture thanks to a last minute winner explains the fact that the price is not shorter here, but that result came in the distant days of the second week of the season, and since then, Darmstadt have fallen off a cliff.

Given the relative strengths of the sides and Darmstadt's unbelievably bad form, I think any price above 3/10 is extremely generous and should be taken.

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1823
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:42 pm

To expand on the theme of opposing Darmstadt, not just in this game, but into the future, it seems to me that they are a team that has not just lost the habit of winning, but has lost the will to live entirely. Once this kind of death spiral sets in, and when avoiding relegation becomes a more and more distant prospect, teams lose motivation and tend to lose frequently.

Of course, once it becomes apparent that the death spiral has begun, the odds follow the team's chances down the toilet. I think a good comparison is Aston Villa in last season's Premier League. Consider that after 18 games of this Bundesliga season, Darmstadt have 9 points, while after 18 games of last season's Premier League, Aston Villa had 8. Both teams are/were 4 points behind second bottom; Villa were 9 points adrift of safety, while Darmstadt are 'only' 7 points adrift.

I think we may be in that golden moment when Darmstadt have lost the will to play but are still being priced as a competitive outfit. The same thing happened with Villa last season, and it took some time for their prices to collapse entirely. Even after 22 games, West Ham were as big as 5/6 for the home win (West Ham won 2-0). By the 26th round of games, Liverpool were available at 8/11 for the away win (Liverpool won 6-0), and in the following round, Stoke were at 10/11 to beat them (which they duly did).

Although prices for teams playing Darmstadt have shortened in recent rounds (Schalke were short at 4/11 when they might ordinarily have been 4/9, with Freiburg at 4/5 when they might normally have been evens), they have not fallen enough proportionate to the collapse in Darmstadt's form, and it might be one that's worth keeping an eye on for the remainder of the season.

pharlap
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1188
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby pharlap » Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:41 am

A tip from the french league 2...

AUXERRE vs ORLÉANS

Worst home team Auxerre host worse away team Orléans who have only got two points on their travels.
I wouldn't normally have tipped in this if things had stayed the way they were only two weeks ago "teamwise"...

Auxerre have been playing well on the pitch for sometime now, dominating teams but just not scoring goals as quality strikers were non-existent. In the last couple of months they were shooting at goal 20 times on average but just not putting the ball in the back of the net.
But ten days ago they signed Mohamed Yattara from Standard Liege and he has been a real asset for the team scoring the only goal in Auxerres 1-0 win in Clermont a week ago and the first of the teams 3-0 win at home against St-Étienne in the french cup in midweek. Trainer Cedric Daury says he has brought a confidence to the team that was lacking all this time.

As I wrote earlier, Orléans are the worst away team in the league and sit at the bottom of the league 2 standings. They did win home to Sochaux but will be playing against an inform team who have finally found the striker they so desperately needed.
I don't have any odds on Yattara to score first or anytime but I can't think of any other to find the back of the net this afternoon.

Auxerre to win @ 2.45
Mohamed Yattara to score first or anytime

mazeymay
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3315
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:00 am
Location: New Malden, Surrey

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mazeymay » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:46 pm

This is a really strange one and if any member can shed light on these odds please let us all know!

In Nigeria there is a game which the top team is playing away to a side that is 5th bottom of the 20 team league.Plateau are the league leaders and have won 4 of their opening 5 games with no loss.The hosts are called Nasawara and have won 1 of their 5 league games.In a league of few goals and many draws you would of thought that the visitors would be at least evens or odds on for a win.They have scored more goals than anyone else averaging 2 goals a game.But look at the odds...

Nasawara vs Plateau

1=1.38
X=3.74
2=7.88

I have checked most of the top bookmaker sites and it is similar odds.

So the league leaders,unbeaten and in great form are almost 8/1 for a win against a team that is struggling.

Match fixing? probably

worth a punt?

Well I have covered the double chance and gone for over 0.5 goals for Plateau at odds of 2.80 and 2.34 respectively.Small stakes but still a chance of a decent return

mazeymay
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3315
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:00 am
Location: New Malden, Surrey

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mazeymay » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:55 pm

The above was sent in by stretcpaul for todays Nigerian League games. Originally posted on the Wednesday fixtures thread but the games were moved to today
stretchpaul, inquisitorem, mathsbet and myself also posted up replies and mathsbet posted a very interesting article on the League, hopefully if he reads this he
will kindly post the link up for more people to read, basically to win away from home in this league is massively unlikely due to many things
This weekend there were ten games played

15:00 Finished
Abia Warriors
1 - 0
Gombe
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Akwa
1 - 0
Remo Stars
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
El Kanemi
1 - 0
Enyimba
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Ifeanyi Ubah
1 - 0
Enugu Rangers
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Kano
1 - 0
Bukola Saraki
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Lobi
2 - 0
Wikki
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Nasarawa
0 - 0
Plateau
(0 - 0)

15:00 Finished
Niger Tornadoes
1 - 1
Katsina United FC
(0 - 1)

15:00 Finished
Shooting
2 - 1
Rivers United FC
(1 - 1)

15:00 Finished
Sunshine Stars
0 - 1
MFM FC
(0 - 0)

As you can see there were seven home wins, three of which were won by late goals and one by a penalty
Two draws and just the one away win

mathsbet
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1823
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:00 am

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mathsbet » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:20 pm

It's remarkable that there was even one away win this weekend, that's only the third away win all season (60 games played now). Here is the article Mazey mentions that I linked to before, well worth a read if you're not aware of the issues with the Nigerian league: https://www.theguardian.com/football/bl ... e-win-away

In terms of my Frankfurt bet, it is ironic that I joked about putting the proverbial mortgage on it, because a fat finger error meant I accidentally put half of my bet365 balance on Frankfurt inplay when the odds hit evens. Let's just say it was a fairly big relief when they converted the penalty for 1-0, and I couldn't get to the cash out menu quick enough :phew:

mazeymay
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3315
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:00 am
Location: New Malden, Surrey

Re: Non UK Football Disc Sat & Sun 4/5th Feb 2017

Postby mazeymay » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:38 pm

Thanks for re-posting MB, it really is an unbelievable article
Good call on Eintracht Frankfurt game, I see the first goal was a penalty, I just had to double check the nationality of the ref
seeing as they were playing at home :wink:

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wonderwall