Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:52 pm

Scott Sinclair on the scoresheet twice today. He's now joint top scorer in the Scottish Premier on 13 goals for the season, 4 clear of Dembele and 5 clear of Griffiths and Armstrong.

The hours are ticking away on the transfer window and once it's shut, it's finger crossing time that the players I've backed stay fit and keep up the form that's seen them in the position they are in now.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:35 pm

Gutted that Hogan is leaving Brentford and not joining a Premier League team. The 20-1 looks a biggish price on him at the moment. Villa have to create more chances than Brentford have been, so his goals to games ratio could increase. Surprising decision with West Brom, Palace and West Ham having shown interest, the first two of those up to today, he's joining a big club, but one that's 9 points off the play offs in the Championship.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:33 am

As I said, disappointed that Hogan joined Villa and not a Premier League team. If he'd left the division, that would have left 4 players on 15 goals or more, with the next highest scorer on 11, but now Hogan on 14 makes it a group of 5 players who are slightly clear in that league. Each Way bets are all 1/4 the odds 1234, except the Scottish Premier which is 1/4 123, so need Abraham to finish 4th for the place portion of the bet, but hoping he can mount a challenge to Gayle the rest of the season. He did at least score tonight, that's if the dubious goals panel allow him to keep the goal.

In other divisions, Costa missed a Penalty........what a terrible penalty it was as well. Suspect that if Hazard is on the pitch next time they get a penalty, he could well get the ball handed to him.

Better news with the transfers in League 1 and League 2.

In League 1, there were four players on 16 or more goals, with a slight gap back to the next best on 11. Well, Matty Taylor swapped Rovers for City and League 1 for the Championship in jumping from one Bristol side to the other. That now leaves Vaughan 6 goals clear of the players who can now catch him. I'm really glad that he didn't leave Bury anyway, he's scored 12 in his last 12 league games taking his season total to 17 in 22. That compares favourably with Billy Sharpe (18 in 29) and Josh Morris (18 in 28). Vaughan needs to stay injury free, stay out of the referees notebook and stay in the form that's got him where he is at present.

In League 2, my bets I put on over Christmas are almost all down thanks to Charlie Wyke moving up a division to Bradford. But along with Wyke moving up a division, Omar Bogle moved up two divisions to join Wigan. That leaves Akinde as the short priced favourite to win the division top scorer. He's only 3 goals clear of John Marquis of Doncaster, but Barnet have played a game less than them. If he can finish the season like he did last season, he scored 12 goals after February 20th last season, he should take a lot of beating. He hasn't scored 19 goals already by accident. Again, he needs to stay fit and in decent form.

In the National League, I still can't get used to not calling it the Conference, bet365 stopped taking bets on the division top scorer after the weekend. Miller has 27 goals, 9 clear of Harrison, who's missed a couple of games with injury and 10 clear of Hawkins. Both those players have 17 games left in their season, 10 in 17 would be a lot of most players. But Miller hasn't even left the division, so he'll hopefully keep adding to his total. He could, if he maintains his current pace, get close to 40 goals this season. He's scored 27 in 27 games so far this season, Dover still have 16 games left to play.

In Scotland, Scott Sinclair's main competition seems to be struggling with injuries at the moment. Moussa Dembele was never really likely to join Chelsea today, but the news that he was in London to see a specialist about his knee suggests Celtic may take it easy with their £40 million striker. Last season's top scorer Leigh Griffiths missed their game on the weekend and has been in and out of the team with injuries. If all three were fit, I'd still fancy Sinclair to keep pace with the other two, so with a 4 or 5 goal start on them and with their fitness in question, I'm liking him for this division. That's not to knock Liam Boyce, but I don't see him maintaining his current scoring rate.

All in all, just happy none of the players in my biggest bet changed clubs in January and all 6 (7 with Fornaroli) seem to be fit and in form. Interesting few months ahead.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:38 am

Something that does concern me is that I've basically backed Costa, Abraham, Vaughan, Akinde, Miller and Sinclair in the bets I've outlined and added Fornaroli for a further bet. Now these bets with bet365 would pay a seven figure sum, but they include a National League player, a Scottish Premier Player and a player in the Australian league. But bet365 have a £500,000 limit on their pay out's involving players in the National League, Scottish Premier and Australian League. The two bets I placed on the 6 folds would exceed this, without the 5 folds and definitely without the 7 fold I added later.

My fault, I know!!!!

But why allow you to place a bet that exceeds the maximum pay out on an event, the 7 fold would exceed the £500,000 limit on it's own.

I could probably write software that would pick up what you are betting on and apply limits on the bets according to the rules.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby sammyscott65 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:34 pm

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:20 pm

How are they looking, how many of those bets have you placed and what percentage are still live after the correct score part is finalized?

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:06 pm

Bad weekend last weekend, with only Scott Sinclair adding to his tally for my key bet. You're going to have weeks like this.

This weekend has gone much better. Tammy Abraham scored twice for Bristol City today, Dwight Gayle missed another game for Newcastle and Chris Wood didn't score for Leeds, so Abraham is now only 2 goals off the top and is 4 goals ahead of Scott Hogan who's in fifth. James Vaughan scored for Bury not to fall any further behind Billy Sharpe and is still 2 goals behind him. John Akinde scored again and is 3 goals clear of Marquis, his nearest pursuer. Costa's Cheslea play tomorrow and Ricky Miller didn't score, but he is still 9 goals clear in the National League and firms aren't taking bets on that division any more. Celtic played in the cup, but Dembele scored his second hat-trick in as many games, so is a serious challenge to Sinclair in that division.

When I placed the bet on Costa, Abraham, Vaughan, Akinde, Miller and Sinclair, I got a accumulative price of 133086.5 to 1 on them all finishing top scorer. Betting is no longer available on Miller, but the last price on him was 1-6 and he would have shortened by now to 1-10 probably. The bet if placed today would pay around 270 to 1, that's less than the place part of my bet pays. According to oddschecker, the best prices on the other five are Costa 18-5, Abraham 4-1, Vaughan 9-4, Akinde 4-11 and Sinclair 7-5.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:02 pm

Bad night last night, no news yet on how long Tammy Abraham will be out. Only Chris Wood of the leading scorers managed to add to their tally, but if Abraham is going to miss an extended period, that could derail my bets. Fingers crossed.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:13 pm

Well, I haven't updated this thread in a while, been in hospital, had an op, haven't been tipping as regularly as I normally would.

The season's nearly over, my big bet is still going and this is how they are looking.

Diego Costa (11/2), Tammy Abraham (5/1), James Vaughan (12/1), John Akinde (6/1), Ricky Miller (4/1), Scott Sinclair (13/2) - Covered the 5 folds and the 6 fold and all apart from Diego Costa now look certain to finish in the placings at least. The chances of the win are very remote with Costa 6 goals behind Lukaku, Abraham 3 goals behind Wood, Vaughan 5 goals behind Sharpe (but with a game in hand) and Akinde 2 goals behind Marquis. The Each Way 6 fold portions of these bets pay 279.54-1 and the 5 folds each pay 105.87-1, 139.26-1, 111.21-1, 69.13-1, 123.68-1 and 117.12-1. The last of those odds is the one that practically up already, but the others all rely on Costa.

Also covered the above bet at slightly different odds a couple of weeks later, but with Bruno Fornaroli (9/2) added in to finish top scored in Australia. Well, that league is over now and Fornaroli finished 3rd, so he's already placed. The Each Way portion of this bet pays 627.76-1.

I also had the bet with Serigio Aguero (11/8), Dwight Gayle (11/4), Josh Morris (11/4), John Akinde (6/1), Ricky Miller (7/2), Moussa Dembele (11/4), Pierre Emerick Aubamayang (5/2) and Bruno Fornaroli (9/2) again Each Way, only the 8 fold covered. Well, the place part of that bet pays 116.92/1 and only Aguero really is in danger of putting that one down.

Well Costa couldn't hit a barn door at the moment and he's looking likely to put my 6 folds down and the 7 fold down that would cost me big time. If he can finish in the top 4 scorers in the division (despite his recent form, he's still equal 4th), then I think I'm smiling.

I had Lukaku in two of my bets, the most interesting one being an Each Way 5 fold, Lukaku (25/1), Grigg (20/1), Sharpe (16/1), Matt Green (20/1) and Ricky Miller (20/1) that I put on in late August. Pity I put Grigg in there and not Abraham and pity I put Green in there and not Akinde. The day I put that bet on, Abraham was also 20/1 and Akinde was 10/1 six days earlier, so was probably around that price at that time. The Lukaku, Sharpe, Miller treble would have paid 9,281-1 at the time of this bet, but I only put the 5 fold on as a throw away bet.

Tammy Abraham picked up an injury around the time of my last post and missed a few games, but he's back now and scoring. Wood is 3 goals clear of Abraham, Glenn Murray and Dwight Gayle, but I think those 4 are now almost certain to fill the places (except Scotland and Australian leagues, all English leagues were E/W top 4). Kodjia was starting to worry me, with Abraham out injured he was banging the goals in for Villa and I had visions of Abraham dropping to 5th in the scoring charts. But Kodjia went and got a red card today, so he'll miss time and is 3 goals behind the top 4, with only 3 games left.

It was nice to have the dream of winning the max pay out for a while, but now I'm just crossing my fingers and hoping that Costa can sort out his game, his head and every thing else.

I'd encourage people to have a look at the top scorer markets next season. The current top scorer in each division at some point before October were big prices.

Lukaku was 25-1 (probably went bigger), Wood was 12-1 (could have gone bigger), Sharpe was 16-1, Marquis was 25-1 (probably went bigger), Miller was 20-1 and Sinclair was 13-2 (was probably bigger).

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby edandumdum » Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:08 pm

Had a double for Sheffield United and Accrington Stanley to get promoted at the emd of the season @17/1.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby simoncoolhand » Fri May 19, 2017 2:16 pm

Last week of action in both the Premier League and Scottish Premier this weekend. Basically, for my bets, Costa is 2 goals clear of Aguero and 3 goals clear of Deli Alli. I just need Costa to hold onto his place in the top 4 goal scorers for my biggest bet's place section to come good. So far, Tammy Abraham has finished placed in the Championship, James Vaughan finished second in League 1, John Akinde finished joint first in League 2 and Ricky Miller walked the Conference top scorer. Just leaves Costa to finish off the job in the Premier League, Chelsea winning the title early was a bad thing for me as it meant they could rest Costa. I'm hoping that he is back in the team for the home game Sunday against Sunderland. In the SPL, Scott Sinclair is joint top scorer in the division, but comfortably clear of the fourth placed player, so a certainty to finish in the top 3. It will be a nice little pick up in Costa does hold on for fourth.

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Re: Does anyone have any season long accumulators at big prices that are looking good at this point?

Postby toadie21 » Fri May 19, 2017 2:35 pm

Top scorer isn't something I usually look at and but it looks well worth ago.

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