How do you approach your weekend football betting?

nors
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:45 am

Yes david only 1 of my home teams did the business and that was Crawley the other 2 went down. The FA Cup throws up a whole different set of issues with managers resting some of their players. I will be looking at those teams who select much weaker sides.

What is guardiola going to do tonight? i wouldnt want to take 5/8 about them winning at West Ham

Newcastle away to Birmingham and Bournemouth away to Millwall look possible upsets and team news will be crucial.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:01 pm

I will have a look at the few league matches, but that is all.

How do you approach your weekend football betting? - This week - with a no entry sign, and a do not disturb sign for those that missed it! :D

Some teams will 'want it' more than others, but of course that will in virtually every case have already been taken into account by the baddies.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby undertherobe » Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:22 pm

My personal approach excludes cup games (99% of the time). Trying to predict the outcome of any game is hard enough, having to predict just how serious a team will take a cup competition just makes it tougher.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:23 am

11 matches to investigate and some took longer than others.

Those to make the final selection this week.

Bradford (1.50) v Chesterfield - one of two fairly automatic picks for most.
Scunthorpe (1.50) v Bury - the second one.

The are joined by.

Swindon (2.20) v Shrewsbury - more based on the away team's form than the reliability of Swindon.
Morecambe (2.62) v Notts Co. - An out of form home team against an away team on an even worse run.
Mansfield (2.00) v Crewe - A good result last week sees the Stags returning to some sort of form.

The other 3 matches on the shortlist.

Southend(4.33) v Sheffield United. This was difficult to omit, but the away team's form is too solid.
Colchester (2.62) v Carlisle. Another borderline contender with Colchester ahead on recent form, and boasting a tight defence.
Stevenage (2.18) v Newport. A match between two struggling sides whose results are erratic at best.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:33 pm

A mammoth 23 teams made the 'shortlist' this week, but after initial pruning it became 12 and eventually 9 when Burnley, Leeds. and Ipswich were removed.

Group A.

Reading (1.85) v QPR
Bolton (1.53) v Swindon
Fleetwood (2.60) v Bristol Rovers
Cambridge (2.61) v Blackpool
Carlisle (1.66) v Morecambe

Group B.

Crawley (2.40) v Hartlepool
Plymouth (2.05) v Stevenage
Portsmouth (1.44) v Leyton
Wycombe (1.95) v Yeovil
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby DistriBetting » Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:48 pm

I like Reading (1.85) v QPR. Also my custom prediction model shows that it will probably under 2.5 Goals too.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:15 pm

Unfortunately, I omitted the wrong 3 last week as the final cull eliminated 3 winners.

I will check overall progress after this week, but hoping to maintain the initial target of at least 60% winners at an average of at least 1.80 odds.

This week's shortlist seemed like three chapters of a novel, but pruning eventually cut it to 12.

This week's selections.

Group A.

Bournemouth (1.85) v Watford
Cardiff (1.91) v Burton
Norwich (2.15) v Wolves
Sheff Utd (1.40) v Gillingham

Group B.

Huddersfield (1.75) v Ipswich
Bradford (2.35) v Millwall
Barnet (2.10) v Newport
Doncaster (1.55) v Crewe

Group C.

West Brom (1.67) v Sunderland
Rochdale (2.15) v Oxford
Blackpool (2.10) v Yeovil
Cambridge (2.25) v Mansfield
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby LustForLeith » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:42 am

Slightly off topic so apologies in advance but I was thinking of changing my approach and was wondering if its common sense to do so?

I go for the over 2.5 goals market and my weekend bet will be an accumulator. Recent!y I've been let down by one game not hitting the target so that's me beat.

The odds won't be the best but I'm wondering if I should start backing doubles? I go for no more than eight selections over the weekend, sometimes five/six. My feeling would be I wouldnt win as much as I would with an accumulator but I'd increase my chances of winning something.

If that makes send!

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:38 am

Slightly off topic so apologies in advance but I was thinking of changing my approach and was wondering if its common sense to do so?

I go for the over 2.5 goals market and my weekend bet will be an accumulator. Recent!y I've been let down by one game not hitting the target so that's me beat.

The odds won't be the best but I'm wondering if I should start backing doubles? I go for no more than eight selections over the weekend, sometimes five/six. My feeling would be I wouldnt win as much as I would with an accumulator but I'd increase my chances of winning something.

If that makes send!
If your SR is good enough to make an LSP or even a very small loss, then multiples may be the way forward for consistent profits. The odds at which your selections will be, is almost certainly in the same range as my 'home favs' where over the 55 bets listed on here, the average winning odds have been 1.86. I have found that TREBLES are possibly the best value, but the SR over a period needs to be close to 60% for it to be really viable. At odds of 1.86, you need a SR of 53.75% to break even.

At these odds, and with an overall SR of 60%, NOBODY will hit exactly 60% every week, whether 3 correct out of 5, or 6 out of 10. It is certain that with 10 selections per week, you would be more likely to hit 6,8,5,3,9,5,5,7, in whatever order, than 6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6.

Even a successful 7 fold only returns about 77 @ average odds of 1.86 and just over 61 @ 1.80 - hardly a life changing sum (unless an almost life changing sum was placed as the bet :D ) so steady profits of smaller amounts SHOULD be both achievable and satisfactory.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:01 pm

Having just checked the records for my 'home favs', I was surprised with the outcome.

55 selections, with 29 winning bets is slightly below par (SR 52.73%) but not far enough short to be of any alarm as the average winning odds has been 1.86 as opposed to the minimum target of 1.80 which makes the LSP a loss of 0.93 pts. It is not unreasonable to assume that the average odds has had an impact on the SR over this short period.

The problem has been the enormous number of draws, 19 in total, but only 7 teams have lost. Until this week, no team had lost by more than one goal.

Of the 7 losses, I have 'lost' to QPR, Oxford, and Mansfield twice each, so that may have been a general under estimate of their away potential. Swindon winning at Bolton accounted for the other in that set.

That leaves much better returns on backing the Draw, backing the Double Chance at very low odds, backing the Handicap (or Asian Handicap) at +1, and even laying the 'other' team. After a few more weeks, those statistics can be revisited.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby kenenek » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:24 pm

I start the week by checking the fixtures for the forthcoming weekend. Forget what happened with your bets on the previous weekend; leave it there and focus again. Also check for how they played, or for whether key players will be unavailable for the next game through injury or being sent off. etc. Explore the market, i use for fooball pinbet88 via bet-ibc, pretty good tho :wink:

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby LustForLeith » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:24 pm

Slightly off topic so apologies in advance but I was thinking of changing my approach and was wondering if its common sense to do so?

I go for the over 2.5 goals market and my weekend bet will be an accumulator. Recent!y I've been let down by one game not hitting the target so that's me beat.

The odds won't be the best but I'm wondering if I should start backing doubles? I go for no more than eight selections over the weekend, sometimes five/six. My feeling would be I wouldnt win as much as I would with an accumulator but I'd increase my chances of winning something.

If that makes send!
If your SR is good enough to make an LSP or even a very small loss, then multiples may be the way forward for consistent profits. The odds at which your selections will be, is almost certainly in the same range as my 'home favs' where over the 55 bets listed on here, the average winning odds have been 1.86. I have found that TREBLES are possibly the best value, but the SR over a period needs to be close to 60% for it to be really viable. At odds of 1.86, you need a SR of 53.75% to break even.

At these odds, and with an overall SR of 60%, NOBODY will hit exactly 60% every week, whether 3 correct out of 5, or 6 out of 10. It is certain that with 10 selections per week, you would be more likely to hit 6,8,5,3,9,5,5,7, in whatever order, than 6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6.

Even a successful 7 fold only returns about 77 @ average odds of 1.86 and just over 61 @ 1.80 - hardly a life changing sum (unless an almost life changing sum was placed as the bet :D ) so steady profits of smaller amounts SHOULD be both achievable and satisfactory.
Thanks mate!

Watch as I switch to doubles and trebles and watch as I don't have enough winners each week ornall ooif them co e in and I've noit backed the accumulator!

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