How do you approach your weekend football betting?

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:17 am

Posted by: betsviewerr

Never stake more than 5%.
Select daily most popular tips with odds between 1.70 and 2.20.
It's more or less like heads or tails, but the tips tells you the most heavy side.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:55 am

I don't keep records of them as such, but as they would be in just two bookmakers' history, I can have a go at it tonight.

Whatever the answer, it will be news to me, but I anticipate using black type for the bottom line. :)

Rightly or wrongly, I treat them as a 'cheap' way of increasing the stakes on the singles. Yankees tend to be Yankees, or permed Yankees, but groups of 5 or 6 often have no doubles, increasing the stakes on trebles upwards. I feel this boosts profits on a good week, while losing little or no more on bad weeks than if the money lost on multiples had been used to increase the stakes on the singles.

Last week, the two groups of 5 had a loser in each again. Using the Bridge analogy of empty spaces, this is of course, more likely than to have both losers in the same group. Once Group A has a loser, there are 5 spaces left to be filled in Group B by the other loser, but only 4 in Group A.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:37 am

The updated list, with Wolves and Peterborough added. They have been randomly split into two groups as usual.

Group A.

Brentford (2.25) v Cardiff.
Aston Villa (1.67) v Burton.
Brighton (1.57) v Q P R.
Derby (1.73) v Birmingham.
Bolton (1.53) v Shrewsbury.

Group B.

Huddersfield (1.80) v Nottingham Forest.
Fleetwood (1.67) v Bury.
Rochdale (1.67) v Chesterfield.
**Wolves (2.35) v Bristol City
**Peterborough (1.85) v Gillingham

I aim to post an analysis of the season to date by the end of Saturday.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby The rabbit » Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:36 am

Some very interesting and helpful posts. The next step for those who have replied may be some examples of what you are betting on the 26th December - so members can see your style/systems in action. So if you said your weekend approach was home doubles then please add your home double, if you said you regularly backed draws or btts please add those. This will then give readers some practical back up to your weekend approach.
Here are the 4 matches that I am doing on Boxing day as a BTTS accumalator -

Barnsley v Blackburn

Barnsley are a team who like to play an attacking style of football and they have scored a total of 38 league goals this season and only leaders Newcastle have scored more. Barnsley should therefore score here with home advantage. Blackburn are struggling in 22nd place but do play in a free flowing style and have scored in all of their last eight games so I expect them to also score.

Wolves v Bristol City

Wolves have been playing in a more attack minded style since Paul Lambert became their manager and have scored in all of their last 4 games and should score against their opponents who have kept just one clean sheet in their last 9 matches. Bristol City regularly score when playing away and have done so in nine of their latest eleven away games so they should also score.

Mansfield v Morecambe

Mansfield have not scored in their latest two games but that is unusual as they had scored in 13 of their previous 14 games so I think that they can score here with their home advantage against their opponents who have conceded at least one goal in all of their last 23 matches. Morecambe are often worth an interest in this market when playing away from home as they have scored in eleven of their thirteen away games this season so I expect them to also score.

Yeovil v Exeter

Yeovil have lost their last two games but were previously in good form and they have scored in nine of their latest ten games so I think that they should score here with home advantage. Exeter are a decent side away from home with seven away league wins this season and they have scored a total of 20 away league goals and only one other League Two side has done better so I think that they can also score.

If both sides score in all four matches then the bet gives a return of approx 7/1 :hope:

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Dec 25, 2016 5:44 pm

Nigel asked me to provide an insight into the details of football accas through the season. This I was happy to do, but said it would be virtually meaningless without relative monetary values.

As the amounts are comparatively small, and used in an explanatory manner, Nigel said go ahead. However, I think I can make the material easy enough to understand, without being specific – even if parts are only faintly disguised. Although using £1 units as the basis, the important factor is the relationship between stakes and returns, or the Return On Investment (ROI). The same principles would apply using any stakes if kept in the same proportion.

Starting out in August, any approach based on known form is by definition using dated information to a large degree, with current season form merging and gradually taking over. For this reason, the early season SR is generally lower due to avoiding short priced favourites.

Basically a continuation from last season, the plan was always to play some low stake accas in the early part of the season, with the occasional larger bet on singles only. Once there is sufficient current form on which to make a judgment, usually around late October, the main part of the punting season kicks in with increased stakes. Now all selections will be backed as singles with a stake of say 20-30 pts, but this may be a slightly larger range if desired. Multiple bets are added to something like the average stake on the singles of each group. Obviously, this can never be exact.

For the 'lite' version, please scroll to analysis.

For anyone not familiar with the term, a permed Yankee with 5 selections means five separate Yankees omitting one team each time – a total of 55 bets. For 6 teams it is any 4 from 6 so 15*11=165 bets.


Date...... Note.......Sels...Wins......Stake......Return....Yank.....PY5......PY6.....SY.....Hei.....SH.....T.....4+
Aug-13.......................4.........3.......14.00........32.64........................................................................4......1
Aug-20........A...........10........4.......38.50.........17.84......................2
Aug-27........B............6.........4.......29.00.........19.62.........2....................................................................7
Sep-03........C............7.........4.......33.00.........13.18...........................................2..................................7
Sep-10......................6.........2.......33.00...........4.05....................................1
Sep-17........D............8.........3.......16.50...........1.28........2
Sep-24........E............8.........4........22.00..........9.75.........2
Oct-01......................5..........1.......26.00..........0.00...........................................1
Oct-15......................6..........5.......33.00.........88.74....................................1
Oct-22........F............9..........2.......27.50..........0.00.........1..........1
Oct-29........G............9..........4......29.20..........19.35.......1...............................................................10...6
Nov-05......................5..........4......31.00..........57.10.......................................................................10...6
Nov-12......................5..........4......33.00.........104.73......................................................................10...6
Nov-19.......H............9..........6......43.50..........36.23........1..............................................................10...6
Nov-22.......I..............8..........5......33.00..........95.15........2
Nov-26......................5..........3......29.00..........19.49.......................................................................10...6
Dec-03.......J..............7..........6......61.50........162.47...............................................................1......31...6
Dec-10.....................5..........4.......29.00..........57.38........................................................................10...6
Dec-17.......K..........10.........8.......62.00.........182.51.......................................................................20..12

Total...........................................623.70.........921.51

Notes.
A. 2 separate permed Yankees covering 10 selections.
B. 6 selections. 2 Yankees with 2 bankers in each. Also 6x5folds and 1x6fold.
C. 7 selections. 2 super Yankees with 3 bankers in each. Also 6x5folds and 1x6fold excluding the away team.
D. 2 Yankees with winners split 2 and 1.
E. 2 Yankees with 2 winners in each.
F. A Yankee and a permed Yankee with just one winner in each.
G. 9 selections. A Yankee with 3 winners, and trebles upwards on five with just one winner.
H. 9 selections. A Yankee with 3 winners, and trebles upwards on five with three winners. The worst split for 6 winners.
I. A Yankee with 4 winners and a Yankee with just one. Obviously the best split.
J. 7 selections. All were in a Super Heinz (120 bets) at minimal stakes along with 21xtrebles. With the 2 shortest priced selections then omitted, trebles, 4-folds, and a 5-fold were placed on the remainder.
K. 10 selections. Trebles, 4-folds, and a 5-fold were placed on each of 2 groups of 5 teams. There were 4 winners in each group.

August. Total stakes 71.50 Returns 70.10. Not bad for the opening to a season, and a lot better if the current Premier League Champions had beaten the now current bottom club on the first day of the season! One of the few away selections in the list.

September. Total stakes 104.50 Return 28.26. Even with winners more favourably distributed, this may still have produced a significant loss.

October. Total stakes 115.70 Returns 108.09. I commenced backing singles seriously on 15 October after the international break. Things started well but the second week made me wonder whether I had jumped the gun completely, been slightly unlucky with timing, or simply shown poor judgment in the selection process. I am hoping it is the middle one. :)

The stakes up to and including 01 October total 212.00 which over 54 selections would be 3.93 each if backed as singles. With 25 winners, that would have lost about 40% of the amount lost on accas. SR even for the start of the season a slightly disappointing 46.30%.

The stakes for 15 22 29 October total 89.70, which over 24 selections would be 3.74 each if backed as singles. With 11 winners from 24, the returns would have been less than the 108.09 from accas. SR still a rather disappointing 45.83%, but showing what may be possible when it improves.

November. Total stakes 169.50 Returns 312.70. Stakes over 32 selections would be 5.30 each if backed as singles. The 22 winners from 32 bets would have ensured a profit, but far less than if including the accas. SR a quite good 68.75%.

December to date. Total stakes 152.50 Returns 402.36. The 03 Dec bets were spread over 3 days with Middlesbrough playing last on the Monday. I have not calculated how much would have been running on them if Leicester hadn’t let me down on the Saturday. Stakes over 22 selections would be 6.93 on each if backed as singles. The return would be miserly due to the extraordinarily high SR of 81.82%.

Analysis

Getting things into perspective, this sort of strike rate can’t and won’t continue. However, it is only when the strike rate was very low that accas performed poorly.

At this end of the market, a good strike rate is essential for any staking method to be consistently profitable. So, what is the best way to take advantage of a good strike rate?
Personally, I prefer to have the safety net of singles as part of the portfolio but find that using part of the bank to fund accas can reap fine rewards - even at short prices.

Using 5 selections at odds of 1.80 as the basis of this exercise (10 trebles, 5x4folds, 1x5fold), what happens with various numbers of winners from the five selections? This would give an ROI of 8% on singles with an SR of 60% - a fair target to test the system as lower figures would hardly make the right side of the break-even point.

Stakes on the multiples to be £1, so the comparison is between 5 singles of £16 plus the multiples, against spreading the £16 from the multiples over the singles to increase each by £3.20 and becoming £19.20.

0 winners obviously returns 0.00 whether on singles only, or the combination. Loss £96.
1 or 2 winners creates a larger loss on the combination as there is no return from the multiples. On singles only, the loss is £61.44 with one winner; £26.88 with two. The loss incorporating the multiples is £67.20 and £38.40 respectively.
3 winners is virtually the break even point with a profit of £7.68 on singles alone, and a loss of £3.77 with multiples.
4 winners shows a profit of £42.24 on singles but now a larger profit of £53.03 with multiples included.
5 winners shows a profit of £76.80 on singles alone, but hits the jackpot if multiples are included, showing a profit of £177.70.

Hitting the 'par' of exactly 3 winners from 5 every time would be very unlucky. Getting 4 winners one week and 2 the next is more probable and if staked in this manner, returns about the same over the two weeks as singles only, and turns a loss into a profit. Although this principle will work using average odds from about 1.75 upwards, there are limits. With average odds of less than 1.75, a greater SR is required; with average odds greater than 2.00, luck (or great skill) would be required to maintain a 60% SR.

If the SR can be improved even slightly, the prospect of getting 4 or 5 out of 5 increases accordingly.

Although not fully tested, it is quite possible that (proportionally) 5 x £20 singles and 10 x £2 trebles (ignoring more exotic bets) could prove to be better than either. This is due to the differential being eroded to a significant extent when there are exactly 3 winners.

I would NEVER advocate multiples only, even though it will work well for many. Part of the reason being that singles only is the best way to control fluctuations in the bank; the other is that some people try to manipulate a losing system into a winning one just by the use of elaborate staking systems. That almost inevitably leads to grief at some point.

My 2 groups this week currently have average odds of 1.75 and 1.87, so I have lit the blue touch paper….
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:20 am

Thanks guys for the breakdown of your approach, this deeper thinking and explanation of approaches helps readers to find bets and angles and can jog the rest of us into more detailed research, which should mean better returns.

Can other members add their approach ahead of this weekends matches.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:43 pm

Of the latest set of tips, 7 teams won and the other 3 drew. Overall a quite satisfactory return, but with 4 of the shortest priced winners in the same group, the profit from that set only just covered the loss on the other (10 trebles, 5 fourfolds and a slightly smaller stake acca in each).

20*trebles showed a profit of 4.55 pts, 10*4folds a loss of 2.75 pts, 2*5folds a loss of 2 pts. It is far too early to say that this confirms the singles and trebles approach to be better.

Something for the weekend.
The same teams are at home for this set of fixtures.

Almost certain to be included.
Huddersfield (1.77) v Blackburn
Derby (1.62) v Wigan
Wolves (1.91) v QPR
Rochdale (1.67) v Shrewsbury
Bradford (1.50) v Bury
Peterborough (1.85) v Coventry

Under consideration. Possible Doubtful Unlikely
Burnley (2.45) v Sunderland Boro' gifted the points to Burnley in a poor match. Sunderland style may suit better and will miss Pickford.
Leicester (2.12) v West Ham Difficult to back City in current unpredictable form. Hammers have won their last three.
Southampton (1.73) v West Brom Soton not scoring freely enough to convince they will easily break this stubborn defence.
Aston Villa (2.17) v Leeds Leeds were impressive at PNE. Villa struggled to beat Burton.
Brighton (1.62) v Cardiff A day less rest for Brighton, but after an easy win.
Newcastle (1.44) v Nottm Forest Toon (too short) need to bounce back, but Forest's last win was in the reverse fixture.
Millwall (1.85) v Gillingham A 2-1 home win in EFL fixture recently, but Gills' away form has improved.
Port Vale (2.36) v Chesterfield One win in eleven has seen Vale slip from 4th to 17th and dump their manager.
Fleetwood (2.00) v Oldham Fleetwood failed to score for the first time in league this season, Oldham are masters at it.
Oxford (1.95) v Walsall Oxford 3-2-0 home v lower. Walsall 0-3-3 away v higher.
Peterborough (1.85) v Coventry Even a new manager could not prevent Coventry stretching their run of league defeats to seven.
Luton (1.77) v Barnet Luton not in best form. Barnet away record and form too good.
Plymouth (1.75) v Crawley A run of 3 victories (2 at home) hides Crawley's generally poor away form.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby toadie21 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:07 pm

I use the soccer stats.com website to look at the home and away form of the matchups for the week ahead. Firstly looking for teams with good home form vs teams with average to poor away form secondly average home form vs poor away form and then the same to find away teams but I'm little more selective on the away teams. This to be honest doesn't take me too long it's just as the website has crunched the numbers for me.

I usually end up with a shortlist of 10-20 teams dependant on the week.

I would now start to narrow the list down. Which takes a lot longer. If I feel the price is too low then I would immediately eliminate them from the selections, ideally I want evens or above but am flexible and would go as low as 1/2 it depends on the situation. I would also look at recent form, recent home/away form I pretty much fixate on the defeats and who they lost to.

Every team is going to lose games, I'm just hoping that their defeats are to half decent teams which can be excused. I also don't like to back teams which had a big game last week I.e vs top of the league as some teams play to the occasion then have a let down week the week after.

And I also try and keep an eye out for injury news but with so many teams it's hard to. I might know some of the top scorers who grab the headlines but wouldn't have a clue who's the rock at centre back or the engine in midfield? But you sometimes get clues off of social media. The international break can also have effect on league 1 & 2 teams who might be missing a key player.

I am a small stakes bettor and place my bets in accumulators a 4 fold 6 fold and a lotto style 8fold. However just because I bet in small stake it doesn't mean I don't take my betting seriously and that I don't plan to be in profit when the season ends.

The principle is that I will win a few 4 folds through out the season. I might win a 6 fold or two. And fingers crossed that one season I will land the 8fold.
BOL gang

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:25 am

The same teams are at home for this set of fixtures.

Here is the updated list for this weekend.

Group A.
Derby (1.62) v Wigan
Wolves (1.91) v QPR
Fleetwood (2.00) v Oldham
Oxford (1.95) v Walsall
Plymouth (1.75) v Crawley

Group B.
Brighton (1.62) v Cardiff (Friday)
Huddersfield (1.77) v Blackburn
Rochdale (1.67) v Shrewsbury (Friday)
Bradford (1.50) v Bury
Peterborough (1.85) v Coventry

Staking as per last week.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:56 am

This is really an unique time of the year when matches come thick and fast. We have games this weekend 30th/31st and then again on Monday, there is little time for rest.

It will be very interesting over the next few days to see the reaction of
1. The teams
2. The bookies
3. The Managers

If the team lost last week and then lost their opening New Year period fixture you can expect an over reaction form the bookies (so a bigger price from the bookies)
If a team won last week and then won their opening New Year Period fixture you can expect a shorter price on their third fixture.

I would be surprised if that many teams in England from outside the Premier League won all three games - last week, this weekend, 2nd January fixtures. 9 points out of 9.

I will be looking at taking on teams going into their third fixture who are too short a price.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:03 am

As above at the weekend i took on away favourites Sheffield Wednesday and Doncaster both who were on a good run of form but imo were too short a price, neither of them won.

Todays matches i am again taking on too short away from home favourites, with the best of them
15:00 Shrewsbury  3) Draw  3.5) Fleetwood  2.38)

I wanted Shrewbury not to win their last game and they duly obliged going down 2-1 at Rochdale this was on the back of a previous 2-1 defeat to Bolton. So after 2 losses the team, manager, staff, fans will be baying for a win or at least not another defeat. Shrewsbury are in 21st place, Fleetwood in 8th. However on the Home and Away table they are closer together with Shrewsbury in 22nd and Fleetwood in 18th. Fleetwood drew on Boxing Day and Won on New Years Eve.

Other games where the home team needs a result are

Crawley v Yeovil
Wigan v Huddersfield

Those 2 games are not as strong as the Shrewsbury game but worth taking a longer look at, team news, injurys etc.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:46 am

Either too many of the away teams suddenly found form due to the Christmas spirit, or the well fancied home teams had consumed far too much of it.

Overall, a set of results that halted what had been a remarkably good run. The teams that had been away for the last two rounds of matches are now at home, facing the (in theory) better teams that had been at home recently. That should lead to a smaller selection of matches and indeed has. Caution to the fore, however, as this results in backing a couple of teams at longer odds than normal. The fact that the final list contains ten selections is coincidental, not by design. The provisional list only contained the ten teams plus Birmingham, about half of the normal amount.

I came up with ten teams initially but increased it to eleven by including Stoke. Birmingham are not in the greatest form, so they slipped off the list. An alternative would have been to find a banker to use twice, making 12 selections in 4 Yankees.

Group A.

Everton (2.32) v Southampton
West Brom (1.97) v Hull
Stoke (1.83) v Watford (Tuesday)
Leeds (1.65) v Rotherham
Sheff Weds (1.91) v Wolves

Group B.

Gillingham (2.90) v Oxford
Scunthorpe (2.15) v Peterborough
Blackpool (1.91) v Mansfield
Cambridge (1.75) v Notts Co
Wycombe (1.91) v Newport
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