How do you approach your weekend football betting?

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:56 am

Great write up The Rabbit - gives us an insight into your methods, we can see by the amount of Yes votes you get for your tip comments that members like reading your tip comments.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby RACHACE » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:38 pm

My current approach is still in it's infancy so whether it's a good or profitable one is still to be known.

However, I've been collating stats based on a teams attacking performance and have been doing so since the start of last season. The stats are based on a teams last 5 league games and various factors are included which make up a round score for said club. When I see that two teams are playing each other that have a fairly close round score I then highlight the game on my spreadsheet for further investigation. I like to focus more on the sides that score poorly and I look at backing the draw between them so for example this weekend in the Premier League 2 games were highlighted between sides that have similar scores. They were City v Arsenal and Sunderland v Watford. I have chosen to focus more on the game at Sunderland because the other game has more of a chance of a piece of individual brilliance that could turn a draw into a win and also that those two sides will play to win for the full 90 minutes whereas I believe depending on how the game goes that there's potential for Sunderland and Watford to get to say 80 minutes in the game and decide that they don't want to go for it because they could lose their point that they have at the time. This is my opinion though and completely subjective of course.

A weekend could produce any amount of draws but I only select 4 each weekend and I put a small bet on a 4 fold for fun. In the long term I want to look to back them as singles or doubles but it's all still trial and error at this moment and I've nowhere near enough a big enough sample size in order to take it on in a more serious way.

The draws so far this season haven't gone as well as maybe I'd have hoped but last season they were very good and my 4 picks each weekend produces a profit in 6 of the 8 months I did it for.

I also use the scores to highlight games where I believe there's a good chance of goals. BTTS in particular is showing some potential but again it's far too early to tell.

Even though the approach is in it's infancy I believe I'm getting far better results than I was just blind betting although I have nothing recorded to back up that argument other than maybe bank statements that would see deposit after deposit to bookmakers and a very rare withdrawal.

I really enjoy looking up all the games and working out the scores and I suppose that's a positive. I do league games only and no cups of European competitions. I look at the Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga and I started the Championship this season (which could be a factor on the draws not doing quite as well as last season)

Anyway that's my general approach to any bets or tips I add on here, including the one a day competition. The bookies aren't going anywhere so I'm on no rush to get some sort of profitable system sorted then hopefully I can start a pension for me and the missus :eyebrows:
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:56 pm

Having a bookmaking background, albeit centuries ago, I am loath to back favourites per se. Unfortunately, that does not prevent some of them winning, so over the past 9 seasons, I have monitored them to see if I can hit a good enough strike rate to make it viable.

Surprisingly enough, using BOKO (Best Odds at Kick Off), a few interesting points came to light.

Time to get some of the boring seasonal average stats out of the way.

In all Premier League matches Home favs 70.3% Away favs 29.7%
LSP for odds on favs (I can't split H and A currently) 1.61 pts per season from approx 200 bets per season. Also showing a higher profit this season.
H wins 45.7% A wins 28.4% Draws 25.9%.
Winning H favs 55%. Winning A favs 50%. Both lose about 2%.
0-0 draws split 71% H 29% A favs
1-1 draws split 69% H 31% A favs
2-2 draws split 68% H 32% A favs
3-3 draws split 67% H 33% A favs
As 4-4 and 5-5 draws are too infrequent, they are omitted. The much greater difference in the 0-0 ratio could be attributable to more away outsiders parking the proverbial.

As it is easier (but, I hasten to add, not necessarily more profitable) to concentrate on finding winning favourites than outsiders, that is what I set out to do. To avoid complications, and to keep the qualifying bets smaller in number, most matches with an away favourite are ignored for this purpose.

The target was to get a great strike rate, but ignoring most favourites shorter than 1.60.

Stage 1. Select suitable home and away teams. In general, that will mean teams with a good home record, playing against a team with a poor away record. For this purpose, a sequence of 5 wins and 5 defeats from 10 games is too random unless all the wins are against weaker teams, or all the losses are against much better teams.

Stage 2. Current league form over 6 &10 matches is used as that conforms to statistics readily available.

Stage 3. Check for injuries or suspensions that may have serious consequences. If you can wait until line-ups are announced, that is even better.

Stage 4. Check the odds. This is not just to ensure that your selection is not too short, but to spot major differences between your idea, and the bookmakers, primarily to see whether you have missed something vital.

Stage 5. Staking for singles. Essentially betting to level stakes, but a slight variation in either direction is possible.

Stage 6. Staking for multiples. This depends to a large degree on the number of teams to be backed. Up to 6 teams can be grouped as one bet. With 7, it is often a case of finding a banker to create two yankees. For larger numbers, they are split into groups of 4 or 5, as convenient.

Stage 7. How to group the selections. This old chestnut always rears its ugly head when one Yankee has 3 winners and the other has 1 or 2. If only I had put x in the second group instead of the first! Picking the 4 shortest and 4 longest together, or putting 2 of each in both bets can lead to the same problem. I have a simple solution - use a pack of cards to do the job. Just list the 8 teams and turn over cards until you have 4 red or 4 black, and the balance will go into the other bet. There is no guarantee that this will have greater, or indeed less, success. However, there are no if only's at the end. With 3 groups, use suits instead.

Since form settled at the end of October, the strike rate has been 37/53 (69.8%). With odds generally in the 1.65 to 2.35 range, that is quite acceptable.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby GeorgeTheBettor » Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:43 pm

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby Casino55 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:52 am

Personally I don't think you can go by stats etc. I remember the days when Manchester United Arsenal Chelsea at home would be bankers on any coupon

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:55 am

Personally I don't think you can go by stats etc. I remember the days when Manchester United Arsenal Chelsea at home would be bankers on any coupon
If you modify that to "stats alone", I would agree entirely, as they can only point you in the right direction. In this instance, the stats were used more to confirm the viability of the method than invent it.

In none of the stages have I suggested using the stats other than a guide. Unless that is, one treats form as a statistic, which would be taking the avoidance of statistics a bit too far. :P

The data on my previous post is a fraction of that available, but is quoted to show how robust some information can be.

I have always considered consistency as being vital to the relevance of any data or statistics.

However, in most aspects of betting, statistics play a role. Long term football statistics that are not team-specific are far more valuable than those relating to a certain team. Check out Chelsea's and Leicester's performances over this and the previous two seasons.

With data from almost 3500 matches in a single division, patterns will emerge. When such data does not vary a great deal from one season to the next, it provides a guide as to what may happen, and what is likely to happen. Extracting relevant data, and discarding the rest, is crucial.

The only issue I have at the moment is that I need to use the same method for lower leagues too; maybe that can also be updated for next season.

If I have 100 minutes to spare, I would rather spend 5 minutes looking at each of 20 matches, than 2 minutes on each of 50. Looking at only the matches likely to provide a betting opportunity will, of course, mean missing a few winners but should improve the quality of the selections made.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby hunt » Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:25 pm

There was a time when the Championship was full of draws and at twelve to five they represented good value. However that trend seems to have finished. I now assume that away wins are unlikely and backing short priced away wins doesn't work. I now look for following three bets:
1) Four home wins better than even money in an accumulator.
2) Two long priced (better than nine to four) home wins, two singles and a double. Last week I had SHREWSBURY and GILLINGHAM the double better than twelve to one, the week before ROCHDALE and WYCOMBE double better than six to one.
3) Two draws, two singles and a double.

Recently I have added two accumulators taking two from the first group, one from the second group and one from the third group.

The conclusion I have come to is that some long priced home wins, good home form, poor away form, are incredibly good value.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:05 pm

Some very interesting and helpful posts. The next step for those who have replied may be some examples of what you are betting on the 26th December - so members can see your style/systems in action. So if you said your weekend approach was home doubles then please add your home double, if you said you regularly backed draws or btts please add those. This will then give readers some practical back up to your weekend approach.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:23 pm

There was a time when the Championship was full of draws and at twelve to five they represented good value. However that trend seems to have finished.
That is a classic example of when a statistic became unhelpful because the pattern/trend/data had changed. It is impossible to spot such things if you do not have the statistics in the first place. The more data that remains fairly constant, the more reliable that trend or statistic is.

The average number of draws in the Premier League over 9 seasons is 98.33 (25.9%). The number of matches played is 380 per season, 3420 in total.

Draws by season are 101 97 96 111 94 108 78 93 107. Basing a system on figures as random as that when expecting 'about 26%' is courting disaster; similar to insufficient data. If the range was 93 to 104, rather than 78 to 111, it gives more substance to the data.

For 8 years, the average number of odds on favs was 200, in a range of 190-213. That is a fairly reliable statistic. So last season, when there were only 185 sticks out as either a blip, or an end to the reliability of the trend. Time will tell.

In the 'good old days', teams would play local rivals on Christmas Day, with the return fixture on Boxing Day. This led to a few unexpected results courtesy of the 'derby' nature of them. Modern travel makes getting to matches over the holiday a lot easier, but the fixtures are still geared to limiting the journeys, even if far less of the games can really be described as 'local derbies'. We will all have this excuse ready to wheel out on the 27th. :D :D :D
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:30 am

So yesterday i looked at the teams looking to bounce back after a defeat last week from league 1 and 2

Accrington
Barnet
Blackpool
Bolton
Bristol Rovers
Crewe
Grimsby
Leyton Orient
Mansfield 
Millwall (playing tonight)
Milton Keynes
Morecambe
Newport
Northampton
Notts County
Oldham
Yeovil

Then i looked whether they were home or away and who they were taking on.

I concluded that they were no home underdogs at decent prices, so then i looked at home teams who would win and these 2 caught my eye. Now Charlton play tonight away at Millwall, i expect Millwall to win at 2.1, if they do i will not be interested in the MK Dons v Charlton match, however if Charlton TONIGHT win then i will be backing MK Dons at home n Boxing Day.

The other game is really a derby, 1 team from Somerset and 1 from Devon. Yeovil as the home team coming into the game having lost 2 i cannot see losing, so would be a layer/trader of Exeter, or a backer of Yeovil + the A/H on Yeovil. Yeovil have been a touch unlucky in recent games and they are going to be motivated to beat their west country rivals.

15:00 MK Dons (2.3) Draw (3.55) Charlton (3.7)

15:00 Yeovil (2.45) Draw (3.4) Exeter (3.1)

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:50 pm

I shall update this list later, but for now, the following matches are 'under consideration'. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United have been omitted as they are likely to be less than 1.40. Any of these will be appended if appropriate.

Almost certain to be included.
Brentford (2.20) v Cardiff.
Aston Villa (1.70) v Burton.
Huddersfield (1.80) v Nottingham Forest.
Brighton (1.62) v Q P R.
Derby (1.73) v Birmingham.
Bolton (1.50) v Shrewsbury.
Fleetwood (1.73) v Bury.
Rochdale (1.67) v Chesterfield.

Some of these may make the list.
Watford - Watford slightly below par, Palace scoring freely away without results.
Leicester - Neither team in great form despite good victories over Man City and Arsenal respectively.
Wolves - Neither team in good form.
Newcastle - Both in good form.
Millwall - Neither in good form.
Peterborough - Both in reasonably good form.
Port Vale - Both out of form.
Sheffield United - Slightly wary of away draw specialists, Oldham, so odds may be unacceptably short.
Grimsby - Neither in good form.
Luton - Both in reasonably good form.
Plymouth - Away team in much improved form of late.

These have (temporarily at least) been removed.
Southend - Away team's current form is too good.
Cheltenham - Away team's current form is too good.

8/10 last week, making 45/63 (71.43%) since the end of October when there was sufficient data and form to work on. LSP will be calculated and added to this or the next set of matches.
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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:10 am

In your Almost certain to be included list you have 8 matches, these would form the basis of Yankees?

Do you have any records of Yankee/multiple payouts this season?

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