How do you approach your weekend football betting?

nors
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How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:55 pm

I was just thinking of my approach to this weekends football betting and noted that i have been repeating the same process for a while.

Now i am happy with this process and have been doing well this season, and compared to horse racing i am much better off from football betting.

I was talking to another member and he said the same that his footy punting was going well.

Image

Now at the weekends most of us have a bit more time to study and analyse and this is my thinking aloud approach:

1. Look at all weekend matches in English leagues only, normally tuesday or wednesday if no midweek games, if midweek games then Thursday.
2. Check all prices of teams
3. Check line ups, injurys, news.
4. Check last 6 matches of teams, looking for teams who lost last week and or the previous week.(in their league, i ignore cup games)
5 Check matches of teams who lost last week and or previous week.
6. Grade them against teams they are lining up against, using well known stat sites (soccer stats, soccerway)
7. Check odds in those specific matches.
8. Favour home teams always
9. Check OLBG tipster comments to see if i have missed anything vital. Check mazeymay underdog thread for value selections. Check OLBG Premier League bloggers for their individual team insight.
10. Check best price available normally around midday on Saturday.
11. Place single bets, normally a max of 2/3 bets at weekend, where if 1 of the 2 won i would be in profit.

I may have missed a couple of steps but there is no well known pundit on TV or in the newspapers or online that i would refer to for football guidance.

It would be illuminating to read other members weekend approach this season, and hopefully we can all learn something from each other. Please add your approach.

Members can add any sites they find helpful. (no spam)

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby mathsbet » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:45 pm

I use three custom built systems to select bets, so my bet selection starts with updating the tables with the last round of results. I maintain separate home and away tables, as many teams are radically different at home and away, so I essentially treat every team as two teams - a home team and an away team. I play all of the major European leagues except Italy (too corrupt), plus Turkey, and Iran.

Once the tables are updated, I get the relevant information for the upcoming matches. I take the upcoming fixtures from livescores.com so that I cannot see the odds. I never check the odds until I have priced the games myself. I discard the games where any of my systems disagree entirely about the outcome, which is fairly rare (if two of them say win, and one says draw, then it's a win, draw no bet, whereas if one says home win and the other says away win, it is discarded). Then using previously observed outcomes, I price the games myself, which tells me what price is fair for the selections I will actually back.

When I have drawn up my own prices, I then use betexplorer.com to go through the markets to confirm whether or not I will actually place the bets. In 65% of games, my odds are identical to those available on the market; I discard those games where the odds are shorter than my prices, but I don't back the opposite outcome simply because I perceive value there, as I don't back against the outcome thrown up by the selection process.

Finally, I do the write-ups for the tips here and for the underdog of the week thread if I am backing an underdog that week. This process also helps me to identify stronger bets which can carry a bigger stake. I try to do write-ups for the strongest 20 or 30% of my weekly bets. Including goal bets and correct score bets, I will generally have upwards of 200 bets per week, so I try to highlight the ones with the biggest gap between my odds and the market's odds.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby monkeytennis » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:49 pm

My system when looking for low scoring games is as follows:

Early in the week use bet365 stats and look at form tables for every league they offer odds on, checking to see if low scoring teams are playing other low scoring teams.
Create a shortlist of matches that could be low scoring.
Later in the week (usually Thursday) use bet365 stats again to look at each of the matches on my shortlist to decide what the best bet on each match is (unders, 1-0, etc).
Check the odds on those bets I have highlighted, crossing off any that I deem poor value.
Place my bets immediately or if certain markets I am waiting for are unavailable wait until they are priced up on the Friday.

That's it really! I definitely prefer the approach of splitting it over multiple days as sometimes I'll look at a match on my shortlist and wonder how it made it on there. I think you need to be able to look at your bets several times and always think it's a good punt.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby mathsbet » Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:44 pm

I forgot to add that I compile a list of all of the games with outcomes which are too short, but which I want to back, sorted by kick off time, and if possible, I monitor the odds inplay. I set a minimum threshold for the odds I would accept for a given outcome (it's usually a home win, if it's too short to back pre-game, or an away win for a famous club).

Sometimes an event like an early goal for the opponent, for example, which might not ultimately affect the outcome, will move the markets enough in your favour, or on other occasions if the game remains scoreless long enough, the odds can reach the minimum threshold for betting.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:42 am

As we get closer to the weekend, i suspect many members are physically sorting out their bets, please add your process as you do it. There may be something a member does that could help all of us make better bets.

Mathsbet: That is a lot of bets on the week,
as many teams are radically different at home and away
i certainly agree with that, and am not sure in some instances whether the bookies factor home/away advantage enough, which is to our benefit.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby mathsbet » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:29 pm

i certainly agree with that, and am not sure in some instances whether the bookies factor home/away advantage enough, which is to our benefit.
They certainly don't seem to give it as much weight as they should in my opinion, and sometimes it leads to what I would consider flagrantly incorrect odds on some games. A good example this weekend would be Burnley at a ridiculous 12/5 to beat Bournemouth. Burnley have been pretty good at home this season with 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats (in fairness, two of those defeats came against Man City and Arsenal and both of those were narrow defeats). On the road, they have five defeats and a draw.

On the flip side, Bournemouth have a decent home record (4W, 1D, 2L) but a poor away record (W1, D2, L4), yet because of their home form and perhaps partially because they managed to come from behind to beat Liverpool, a team with an away win ratio of 14% is priced as 6/5 favourites for the win.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby wonderwall » Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:49 pm

That's a great tip Maths, Burnley & Bournemouth are massive at Home but not good away, even West Ham beat Bournemouth at the Olympic Stadium, even if this tip don't come, its ok, in the long-term this kind of tip will come good. Nice one.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Mon Dec 12, 2016 11:40 am

Well done Mathsbet, that always looked decent, well highlighted.

Wonderwall: What is your approach?

Can other footy experts give us their approach?

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby weyayeman » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:00 am

There is one thing I do before I start looking at the weekend fixtures and I was wondering if any other posters take the same approach and that is I look at the outcome of my previous weekend bets and for all of the bets that lost I will review the game(s) by looking at the stats and read match reports to try and find a reason why i lost money.
Sometimes it could be that I just made an error in judgement and maybe overestimated/underestimated what I had perceived to be an upturn or downturn in a teams form, it could have been that I missed information that was out there for all to see ie. half the team were ill with flu. If I can discover any errors in my methods of selecting a bet then maybe I can use this to my advantage for the upcoming weekends bets.
After looking at the match details it could be that I am happy at how i came to the decision to place the bet and if the game was played again I would stay with my initial choice of bet.
Only when I have finished going over my losing bets will I start on the long process of making my selections for the upcoming games
Last edited by weyayeman on Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:47 am

I agree weyeman, i backed Reading and they won, but reading the match report it seemed Sheffield Wednesday had the bulk of the best chances, now i didn't see the game so i am only going by the report, but it seems on another day Wednesday may have prevailed. Now the bookies had Wednesday as favourites which i disagreed with, so in hindsight they (the bookies) may have been correct, and i don't like them to be correct, even though i won the bet. So by looking back even when having a winning bet we can learn a lot.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby nors » Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:12 pm

Weekend is nearing, think about your approach to this weekends football fixtures (if you are not christmas shopping) and please think aloud and post below.

Tomorrow after the final midweek matches i will be looking at the prices and injury concerns for teams.

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Re: How do you approach your weekend football betting?

Postby The rabbit » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:53 pm

I concentrate on three markets when it comes to betting on the soccer.

1. Both teams to score accumulators and I only select matches when I think that both teams will score. I avoid games when I think that both teams will not score for the simple reason that I have tried to do it and I am lousy at it.

I look for teams that tend to play a free flowing style of football and have a positive attitude going forward and try to score goals and do not sit back and play defensively if they take the lead. These teams often have defensive weaknesses and a good example of this type of team is Notts Forest who have scored in 16 of their 20 league fixtures so far this season and have only kept one clean sheet in a league game since the season started. Crystal Palace are a Premiership team with a similar attitude and there are also other teams in lower leagues.

Another thing that I do is look for teams who score regularly away from home - for example, MK Dons have scored in 10 of their 12 away games in all competitions this season ( however this may change with a new manager in charge ) and Bury have scored in 8 of their 11 away league games.

I do not choose all of the same teams every week so my weekend approach is to look at the their stats and match reports to see how they have been playing recently and how many chances they have created in their previous matches ( I use the BBC Website ). I also look at the details of the opposition before deciding which teams to select. I avoid teams who are playing sides with a solid defense such as Derby. I also do the same as Nors and check all prices in the market along with team line ups, injuries, news and often avoid teams when a new manager has been appointed as he may change the style of play for his team.

I usually choose about 5 -7 matches involving these teams and often use a bookmaker such as Betfair who offer money back if one side lets me down or I may do a series of trebles/ four timers etc depending on the circumstances.

2. Laying teams at outset not to win.

Some teams have a good away record and it can pay to Lay the home side when they are playing these teams depending on the odds on offer. A good example is Stevenage who have won five and only lost three of their ten away league games this season. Exeter are useless at home but have won seven and only lost three of their away games this season. My weekend approach is to study the fixtures and odds and decide if any home team is worth laying at outset.

3. Laying teams not to win in running if they go 1-0 up ( Premiership and Championship only ).

This is something that I have experienced mixed results with but the odds on some teams will come quite short in running when they go 1-0 up and they can be worth laying with the intention to cash out if the opposition equalise. Picking the right teams is something that I have problems with and I have not made a lot of money from this. I did try doing it when a team went 2-0 as their odds can get extremely low and teams do not always win after taking a 2-0 lead but I stopped as it did not work for me.

Another weekend approach is for me to watch the recordings of MOTD ( BBC 1 ) and Championship ( Channel 5 ) from the previous weekend in order to refresh my memory of how the teams in these leagues played.

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