Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14421
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:21 pm

No sandymc i couldnt

Dortmund had 9 shots on target and 8 went in
Warsaw had 7 and 4 went in.

I am not exactly sure what the average ratio is for shots on target v goals but Dortmund seems high in that game.

The Executioner
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11516
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:00 pm

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby The Executioner » Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:10 pm

Sevilla look the value play to me @2/1 away to Lyon tonight. Currently sitting in third place in La Liga just a point behind Barcelona and seven behind the pacesetters Real Madrid , whereas Lyon sit some fourteen point off the leaders in Ligue 1. It could well be a close run game tonight but at the odds available the value surely has to lie with the Spanish side. Personally I'd make them slight favourites.
2017 , 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 1 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412109

2017, 50x3yos To Follow ( Part 2 )
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412111

2017, 20x2yos To Follow
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412443

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14421
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:13 pm

Would be good to monitor how the thread does on tonights and tomorrows games. I am with Basle on the Asian Handicap + 0.25. I have seen too many Arsenal games where we are ill prepared away from home. Arsenal had their chance at home to PSG and blew it. The odds on +.25 for Basle look too big.

jibberjag
Handicapper
Tips
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby jibberjag » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:30 pm

All good viewpoints above guys. But why in football is nothing ever cut and dry? God damn it. That Besiktas wager seems very good on paper (of course, they all do) I mean I could make a case for Dinamo Kyiv surely.....can play with freedom and try and get a morale boosting victory to lead them into the weekend? Do they play anybody fierce in their domestic league comign up?
But isn't the fact it isn't part of the fun?!

Kiev have got a week off then play Shakhtar. I think Besiktas might sneak it tonight yep. There is a bit of value in the Draw No Bet but you can never be too sure with games like that.

Dortmund game was like one of my five a side games or like an eclipse! So no, nobody can make sense!

mazeymay
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3180
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:00 am
Location: New Malden, Surrey

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby mazeymay » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:04 pm

PSG v Ludogorets

Both teams to score looks good here at just above evens with most firms

Both teams scored in the previous meeting between the sides in the group as PSG came out 3-1 winners, PSG have qualified for the next stage but need to match Arsenals result to top the group so will have a certain level of motivation but could still be a little slack, Ludogorets again need a similar outcome here as they need to match Basel’s result against the gunners so will feel they need to score, they are a decent side going forward so are capable of breaching a PSG defence that has conceded 7 goals in their last 4 matches

Basel v Arsenal

Over 2.5 goals 4/5 in some places

The gunners come into this knowing the must pick up points and hope PSG slip up at home against Ludogorets to top the group, pressure is off a little for them however as they have already guaranteed qualification so may be a little less convincing at the back tonight, Basel need to better Ludogorets result in Paris and have the better chance here to pick something up, they tend to have a lot of goals in their games domestically and looking back over their last 10 games 8 of them have covered this goal line, Arsenal come in off the back of a 5-1 win away to West Ham so if in the mood are capable of covering this goal line by themselves tonight so we should see goals in this one as both sides attempt to leapfrog the sides playing in the other group game

The double would pay 2.6/1
Nice win double Scneedler

schneedler25
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 870
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:00 pm

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby schneedler25 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:20 am

Thanks mazey, ended up coming in a lot more comfortably than I expected in the end

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14421
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:37 am

FC Basel 1-4 Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Ludogorets Razgrad
Benfica 1-2 Napoli
Dynamo Kiev 6-0 Besiktas
Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Manchester City 1-1 Celtic
Bayern Munich 1-0 Atlético Madrid
PSV Eindhoven 0-0 FC Rostov

Well done schneedler25 + bluemal, petethebet, davidg3907, 4 winning advices. Not a bad return if all were followed.

My faith in Basle putting in a performance was misplaced and the bet went down and never looked like landing. Arsenal were excellent and i saw a big improvement in some of the fringe players, gabriel, holding, gibbs, perez which makes me feel a tad more confident about the Premier League, however as i bang on about all the time any top team losing key players and the team struggles, we would struggle without Sanchez and Ozil.

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14421
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:07 am

Wednesday games

Tottenham v CSKA
Real Madrid v Bor Dortmd
FC Porto v Leicester
Lyon v Sevilla
Bayer Levkn v Monaco
Legia War Sporting
Brugge v FC Copenhagen
Juventus Dinamo Zagreb

Copenhagan can qualify as they have a head-to-head advantage over Porto, so will come second if they win and Porto do not.

Lyon need to beta Seville by 2 goals

wonderwall
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 93
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:01 am

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby wonderwall » Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:21 am

Yup, for the Gooners, this Sanchez+Ozil is a double-edged sword. Pay them their true value and inflame the rest of the squad, or see them leave to Man U, Man C and continue that empty Trophy cupboard. (Aside from FACup!).

mazeymay
At Stud
Tips
Posts: 3180
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:00 am
Location: New Malden, Surrey

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby mazeymay » Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:25 am

At least if Spurs accidentally find themselves in the Europa League this season it will serve as good practice for next year. On Saturday they face a team already playing in it, so they could meet later on for Europa League bragging rights. :D

Basel may be happy with a stint in the Europa, and with Arsenal looking booked for second place, the visitors have less to play for. Wenger is more likely to field a slightly weaker side and still try to win just in case PSG slip up, rather than simply go to Switzerland to make up the numbers. Goals should, therefore, be on the agenda.

Benfica host Napoli in the tightest of the groups. Defeat for either side could see them eliminated, but a draw would see Napoli through and leave Benfica to worry about events elsewhere. There has been no shortage of goals in this group, and although goals are far from guaranteed when Italian visitors are in town and a 0-0 draw would suit them, I can't see this playing out that way due to Benfica probably needing a win.

I fancy an over 2.5 goals double on these two games.
A belated well done David, I hadn't realised Benfica scored a late 3rd match goal

sandymc
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 12:00 am

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby sandymc » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:34 am

Hahah on no Besiktas! what an awful result. Did anybody watch the match? Were the red cards justified? Obviously the second was just out of pure frustration.

Cheers guys,

Sandy

p.s well done Schneedler. That's exactly the kind of bet I look out for- a nice little double. I think I might just have a bit of fun on the Madrid match tonight-low stakes and go for correct score. 3-3, 4-3 or 3-2

sandymc
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 161
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 12:00 am

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby sandymc » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:47 am

Nors = yeah anomoly! Imagine picking correct score 8-4 lol

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], wonderwall