Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

jibberjag
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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby jibberjag » Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:00 pm

You know its a strange one regarding weakened teams. Because as soon as you leave out a few top players as the team are out already, they are replaced by players with something to play for.

Players who want to make an impact, get noticed etc. Also depends on the team. So my question would be in a weakened Spurs team now just on par with CSKA's strongest 11? Then you have to consider again for CSKA travelling etc.

So I think a weakened team is not necessarily a bad thing and I think you have to consider so many other factors.

If you are a team with nothing to play for, you still want to win as much. If I am relegated I don't stop wanting to win. A team will nothing to play does not change the way they approach the game. The personnel is the big factor here and until the lineup is announced, that is so hard to put into some kind of odds.

Does a Spurs without Harry Kane make them weaker? Not necessarily. Saying all that I do think CSKA will be really on it tomorrow. Last game until March for them!

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:08 am

Does a Spurs team without Harry Kane make them weaker?
- I think Spurs fans would say Yes. As an Arsenal fan i would rather he didnt play when we take them on.
If you are a team with nothing to play for, you still want to win as much.
I dont agree with that, think about our own lives when something is crucial we prepare better, take the task more seriously, worry more, ask for more help.

My underlying betting strategy on football is based on the "need to win" v "the wanting to win" and would rarely place a footy bet unless the need outweighed the want.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:39 am

At least if Spurs accidentally find themselves in the Europa League this season it will serve as good practice for next year. On Saturday they face a team already playing in it, so they could meet later on for Europa League bragging rights. :D

Basel may be happy with a stint in the Europa, and with Arsenal looking booked for second place, the visitors have less to play for. Wenger is more likely to field a slightly weaker side and still try to win just in case PSG slip up, rather than simply go to Switzerland to make up the numbers. Goals should, therefore, be on the agenda.

Benfica host Napoli in the tightest of the groups. Defeat for either side could see them eliminated, but a draw would see Napoli through and leave Benfica to worry about events elsewhere. There has been no shortage of goals in this group, and although goals are far from guaranteed when Italian visitors are in town and a 0-0 draw would suit them, I can't see this playing out that way due to Benfica probably needing a win.

I fancy an over 2.5 goals double on these two games.
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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby mazeymay » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:20 am

Club Brugge v Fc Copenhagen
The Danes still have a very slim chance of making it through to the knock out stage from this group. First and foremost they must win this game in Belgium
They beat the Belgian side comfortably 4-0 in the home group game and at a price of 11/10 to win here looks decent enough. Anything other than a win
for Porto against Leicester would see Copenhagen qualify if they take the three points in Belgium. With Leicester already having won the group there is
a big possibility they could field an understrength side in Portugal and Porto could run out comfortable winners. With both games kicking off at the same time
all Copenhagen can do is go out and win their game and then hope Porto failed to do the same at home. This is a big ask but for the bet itself we are only interested
in Copenhagen winning their game. Brugge have been woeful in this group, scoring just twice and conceding twelve, Copenhagen aren't high scorers with five but have
only conceded two. Odds against for the away win does represent value in my thinking

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby schneedler25 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:22 pm

PSG v Ludogorets

Both teams to score looks good here at just above evens with most firms

Both teams scored in the previous meeting between the sides in the group as PSG came out 3-1 winners, PSG have qualified for the next stage but need to match Arsenals result to top the group so will have a certain level of motivation but could still be a little slack, Ludogorets again need a similar outcome here as they need to match Basel’s result against the gunners so will feel they need to score, they are a decent side going forward so are capable of breaching a PSG defence that has conceded 7 goals in their last 4 matches

Basel v Arsenal

Over 2.5 goals 4/5 in some places

The gunners come into this knowing the must pick up points and hope PSG slip up at home against Ludogorets to top the group, pressure is off a little for them however as they have already guaranteed qualification so may be a little less convincing at the back tonight, Basel need to better Ludogorets result in Paris and have the better chance here to pick something up, they tend to have a lot of goals in their games domestically and looking back over their last 10 games 8 of them have covered this goal line, Arsenal come in off the back of a 5-1 win away to West Ham so if in the mood are capable of covering this goal line by themselves tonight so we should see goals in this one as both sides attempt to leapfrog the sides playing in the other group game

The double would pay 2.6/1

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby steenie1 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:20 pm

For a fun bet, the 16 CL matches to all produce 1.5 + goals is currently totalling 17.33/1 on Willie Hill---might be better odds on other sites, though. The way I see it, those teams already through to the next round will be relaxed about conceding if they're up against teams who are only playing for pride. And if qualification for either the next round of the CL or entry into the Europa League is at stake, those matches are quite likely to produce goals too.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby undertherobe » Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:31 pm

I like to focus on those teams who are already assured of their finishing position in the group and look to oppose them.

Dinamo Kiev will finish bottom of group B and host a Besiktas team who need a win to guarantee a place in the next round (a draw will do if Napoli lose to Benfica).

So Besiktas at 6/4 is my play here.

Celtic are also guaranteed to finish bottom although City just need a point and the 1/10 on a City win or a draw makes no appeal to me.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby sandymc » Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:06 pm

Kessy1971~

Good spot in the Lyon vs Sevilla match tomorrow night. I agree, the need for Lyon to score will ensure the game is played openly. For me, I'm not totally convinced based on the amount of goals across the whole group and that Lyon have scored 4 of their 5 goals against Zagreb and so it's a 6/10 Bet.......but thank you, I will have some money on but only small stakes.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby sandymc » Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:13 pm

All good viewpoints above guys. But why in football is nothing ever cut and dry? God damn it. That Besiktas wager seems very good on paper (of course, they all do) I mean I could make a case for Dinamo Kyiv surely.....can play with freedom and try and get a morale boosting victory to lead them into the weekend? Do they play anybody fierce in their domestic league comign up?

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby sandymc » Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:46 pm

Can anyone make any sense of that Dortmund vs Warsaw 8-4? An anomoly?

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby petethebet » Tue Dec 06, 2016 3:06 pm

D Kiev 11/5
Draw 12/5
Besiktas 6/4

A big night for Besiktas who can win the group with a victory. They can also head to the Europa League with a defeat and qualify for the knockout stages of either competition depending on the result in the other group game. That may play on the minds of the coach and the players. Do they go for the win but leave themselves open to the counter attack, or play cautiously and take their chances with a draw? The team has never made i t past tbe group stage in the Champions League and that could bring additional pressure. There is no pressure at all on the Ukrainian side who have already been eliminated. They also have a big game next Monday versus Shahktar Donetsk and that could be more important to the squad. Coach Rebrov states that he will play his strongest side. If he does, and they perform as well as they have in their domestic league, they could be the value. Dynamo have lost only to Benfica in their last fifteen games. They have won both previous clashes with Besiktas in Kiev. In fact Turkish sides have a poor recotf travelling to Ukraine, losing on seven of nine prior trips to the capital. Besiktas are undefeated in twenty competitive matches but have won just three of the last eight. Five were drawn and with an approach that could be a bus parking operation until news filters through from Lisbon another stalemate may be the value. One needs to check the weather forecast as conditions may be a tad on the cold side which may not suit the away side. On balance the home side on the Asian Handicap may be the value

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby bluemal » Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:13 pm

My only bet tonight is a single value bet on Double Chance .

PSV host the Russian who surprised everyone in last round of group games , FK Rostov beat Bayern 3-2 at home in what could be the biggest win of their club’s history and sit on 4pts in group and 3pts ahead of PSV who sit bottom on 1pt

The reverse tie in Russia ended a 2-2 stalemate but Rostov who led both times, Rostov have shown they aren’t pushovers and even scored at Atletico which is usually tough to do in CL. With both teams fighting I expect PSV to be the more hurried as they need the win and see them go through in better H2H for a Europa League place whereas the draw will suit Rostov and with there league closed down now for winter the Rostov players can go out and fight for everything as there next game will be in March

Rostov Draw or Win @ 5/4 bet365
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