Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:06 pm

Image

Are members getting involved in the Champions League Betting markets?

Currently the betting looks like this

Barcelona
4.4
Bayern Munich
4.6
Real Madrid
7
Atletico Madrid
12
Man City
12

This year looks more open?

Do you have an ante post bet that is going well?

Who can make it to the final?

Can You Predict the finalists?

Are Barcelona a spent force?

Will 1 of the English Clubs make it to the final? and if so which?

Will 1 of the big three win again? (Barcelona, Bayern, Real Madrid)

Is there a back to Lay team?

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:17 am

The top 3 games all look like being hard fought, Copenhagan and Tottenham need to win, Sevilla and Juve may settle for a draw. I may look at Copenhagan and Tottenham NOT LOSING which ultimately would mean being against Monaco and Porto.

Image

TheKnow
Listed Class
Tips
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:00 pm
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby TheKnow » Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:41 pm

I've compared the Lay prices on Betfair's Exchange for the Champion's League Outright market (currently betting to 98.4%) to identify which prices are ''value'' against the top prices currently being offered by the bookmakers.

There are two standout selections:

ATLETICO MADRID (12/1 Ladbrokes)
Runners-up in this competition last year and in 2014 - Atletico certainly have the recent pedigree to mount a serious challenge again this season. Currently topping Group D ahead of tournament second favourites Bayern Munich, the Spaniards have already qualified for the next stage of the competition and as they're only trading at 12.5 on Betfair's Lay market, they can be considered a very solid bet - particularly as Ladbrokes are now the last remaining firm going 12/1 (10/1-11/1 general).

SEVILLA (66/1 SportingBet/Stan James/Coral)
The most successful team of all-time in the Europa League (formerly the Uefa Cup) - Winners in 2006,2007 and for the last 3 seasons (2014,2015,2016), the Spanish side finally look set to have a decent crack at the biggest prize in European football. Sevilla currently top Group H on 10 points (already qualified for the next phase) and haven't conceded a single goal in any of their opening 4 Group matches in this campaign. Their current Lay price on Betfair is 65, so the 66/1 still on offer with the trio of firms is well worth a speculative Each Way punt.

Both sides hail from Spain - the most successful Nation in UEFA Champion's League history with 16 Wins and 11 Runner-up finishes - and look value Each Way bets with all firms going 1/2 1-2.

davidg3907
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 4813
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Nov 22, 2016 6:47 pm

This has been Leicester's initiation season.

Although mileage has been kind, with Bruges, Porto, and Copenhagen days, the fixture computer decided to give them an away Premier League match prior to each of the six games.

Giving the CL a good go may have been partly to blame for the league form, but it can't be held totally responsible.

A draw will see Leicester go to the knock-out stages and a win will see them top the group. Anything but a win would probably need them getting something out of the trip to Porto a few days after a battle with Sunderland at the Stadium Of Light. A win would be ideal, and they did win 3-0 in Bruges, but guaranteeing a point may be uppermost in Claudio's mind.

I therefore, see an unusually cagey game here unless an early goal sparks some life into it.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:31 pm

Tonights best odds, Ludogerets need to get something out of tonight's game with Basle as they are away to PSG in the final game. I would be against Basle.

Besiktas  2.81) Draw  3.35) Benfica  2.9)
Arsenal  2.72) Draw  3.45) PSG  2.9)
Ludogorets   2.65) Draw  3.5) Basle  3)
Borussia Monchengladbach  5) Draw  4.1) Man City  1.8)
Atletico Madrid  1.37 ) Draw  5.25) PSV  12)
Napoli  1.4) Draw  5.3) Dynamo Kiev  9.5)
Rostov  15) Draw  6.8) Bayern Munich  1.29)
Celtic  13) Draw  7) Barcelona  1.3)

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:35 pm

POSTED BY SCORERTHIEF:
Manchester City take on Borussia Moenchengladbach knowing that a victory will seal their passage into the knockout phases of the Champions League. A draw would even be good enough for Pep Guardiola’s men provided Celtic fail to beat group leaders Barcelona.

Manchester City could well make changes for this game as winning the group looks almost certainly beyond them while Moenchengladbach shouldn’t provide too stern a test. John Stones, Leroy Sane and Kelechi Iheanacho could all come into the team, along with Ilkay Gundogan who was rested at the weekend. Yaya Toure, who scored twice against Crystal Palace on his return to the side will definitely not play as he is not in Man City’s Champions League squad.

Gladbach come into the game in a poor run of form. Their defeat to Koln at the weekend continued a five-game winless streak in the Bundesliga and a six-game winless streak in all competitions – but they did snap a five-game scoreless streak in the German top flight. They’ll be without talented holding midfielder Christoph Kramer and right-back Julian Korb due to suspension.

Manchester City are clear favourites to win at 1.76, which reflects the massive difference between the teams. However, having seen Man City fail to comfortably beat opponents such as Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace when heavy favourites I’d be very reluctant to look at the handicap market. What does interest me however is Both Teams To Score – No at 2.26 with Gladbach finding it hard to hit the net of late.

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:41 pm

I would also be against Benfica with the need for Besitkas to get a positive result.

Benfica face Napoli at home in matchday 6
Besitkas are away at Kiev.

This is a real chance for Besitkas and cant see them losing.

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:43 pm

Never in doubt that Bestikas v Benfica result!! took 7.2 in play the draw although that was just to counteract the losses accrued pre match, so got out with a small loss as opposed to a big loss.

Fredgarv
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1281
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:00 pm

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby Fredgarv » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:33 am

This looks the most wide open champions league in a long time if ever and I have a sneaky for Dortmund they have come on bundles in the last few years and could culminate in the double 6 points adrift in the Bundesliga but on a knock out basis they could take any team out the usual suspects Barcelona Madrid Bayern are all having their problems so this is up for grabs.

Kessy1971
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 186
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:00 am

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby Kessy1971 » Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:47 pm

I have picked out a bet in the Lyon v Seville game which is on wed 7th

Lyon must win the game by 2 goals to qualify for the knockout stage with them being 3 points behind Seville and losing the reverse fixture 1 0 , the home team don't have a option than to go for goals which will suit Seville who are very impressive on the counter attack

Can see goals in this game, my bet here is over 2,5 @11 to 10 in most places

nors
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 14753
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Coventry

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:30 am

I can see this weeks games causing issues for the bookmakers odds compilers as you have a mixture of games between

1. Teams who have something to play for
2. Teams who have nothing to play for

I suspects some teams will rest players, some teams will be unmotivated.

Does anyone have stats/opinion from last years final Champions League games that could help us find wining bets this year?

stretchpaul
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 2162
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby stretchpaul » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:51 pm

I am pretty sure Spurs will play a much weakened side against CSKA on Wednesday.They are out of the CL and I recon they would rather not have to play in the EL this season while they are trying to get in the CL placings in the league.They face Man Utd away at the weekend too and I would suggest not losing their is much more important than playing in Europe's 2nd rate competition with lesser gates.Their form with their best XI is good but I honestly do not expect them to get a win against Moscow.The Russians would be happy with a EL place though so with that in mind and against a Spurs likely 2nd string,I think there is value on the AH.

Spurs vs CSKA (CL 7/12 1945) CSKA +1@2.06

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wonderwall