Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:59 pm

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:42 pm

Will the 4 favs win this week in the Champs League? 2 at home and 2 away or we could select the 2 shorties and mix and match 1 of the third games.

Arsenal (3.4) Draw (3.95) Bayern Munich (2.2)

Napoli (2.91) Draw (3.92) Real Madrid (2.5)

Barcelona (1.47) Draw (5.3) PSG (7.3)

Borussia Dortmund (1.4) Benfica (10.5)

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:04 am

The odds for the winners of the Champions League are as follows:
Barcelona
4
Bayern Munich
4.33
Real Madrid
6.5
Atletico Madrid
7
Borussia Dortmund
11
Juventus
12
Monaco
17
Leicester
34
Who will make it to the Semi Finals? Can you predict the 4 and suggest an acca?
Is there a value back to lay ahead of the 1st legs?
Is there a player who can light up the competition?
Are Monaco the real deal?
Are Leicester doomed?
What insight do previous quarter finals indicate?

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:04 am

It is difficult to believe that yesterday was the second anniversary of the win against West Ham that commenced the Great Escape.

Leicester are doomed. People have been saying so ever since Manchester United lost 3-0 at Tottenham on April 10th last year, confirming a top 4 finish for Leicester was guaranteed. It is just a question of time before Leicester lose and everyone says "I told you so". :D

I was confident that Leicester, despite lack of any CL experience, would comfortably get through the Group stage, and they topped that with a game to spare, conceding just one goal in five games. Some pundits ridiculed their performance in Porto, where a very much weakened side that had nothing to play for was sent to do battle with a full-strength team that needed a win to progress. The inevitable happened.

I was hopeful of beating Sevilla, more so once Vardy got an away goal, and fancied them to turn it around at the King Power.

However, of Leicester's three sorties into European football, two have finished at the hands of Atletico Madrid, who have been runners-up in this competition twice during the past 3 seasons. Red Star Belgrade (what has happened to them?) is the other team to knock them out.

Unfortunately, I can see this being a case of "these things come in threes" rather than "third time lucky".

Atletico, like any of the other teams at this stage, would fancy their chances of reaching the semi-finals, but in company with the others left in the competition will find Leicester to be a different kind of opponent.

Some may say that Leicester players should be fresh as their season only started in earnest towards the end of February, but that may be slightly unfair on the players. One thing is for certain, Leicester is the only team left in the competition with nothing to lose!
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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:10 am

How did the away teams in the 1st legs do in previous seasons? Any stats that can help us be with the home or away teams in the 1st legs.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby risto123 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:40 pm

During the last 5 seasons in CL QF 1st leg:

2011/12 - 3 of the 4 teams who played first leg on the road, got that away goal. And those 3 teams: Bayern, Real, Chelsea won to nil aswell.
Bayern and Chelsea made it to the final that year aswell.
2012/13 - Barca were the only away team to score on the road as Juve and Galatasaray lost to nil to Bayern and Real respectively and Dortmund drew 0:0 with Malaga. Both german teams kept clean sheets in QF first leg as they both went to the final eventually.
2013/14 - Again 3 of the 4 away teams found the net as Atletico and Bayern drew 1:1 while Chelsea lost 1:3.
2014/15 - 2 of the 4 teams scored on the road(Barca,Bayern) - these 2 went against eachother in the semis where Barca won eventually(like in the final)
2015/16 - 2 of the 4 teams scored on the road(Atletico, Man City) - like 2 years before Atletico again travelled to Barcelona for the quarterfinal first leg.

So basically in 4 of those 5 seasons one team(or 2 like in 11/12)who managed to score that away goal in QF first leg made it to the final eventually :?

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:26 pm

Good stats Risto, so the away goal as we know is important. The 4 away teams in the opening legs imo could easily score, especially knowing the importance.

These are their odds to win the game.

Monaco (5.1)
Barcelona (2.9)
Leicester (12)
Real Madrid (4.75)

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby bozzer » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:22 pm

Athletico for all their tightness at the back will be surprised by a Leicester team that doesn't do playing careful. If Leicester do score one they may score two and put themselves in a great position but you can't see them keeping a clean sheet therefore my best bet here indeed in all four games in the CL this week is BTTS at 6-4 widely available.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:08 pm

In 2014/15 Barcelona won away at PSG and then won the home leg too.

That remains the only away win in the QFs first leg in the last 4 seasons, but there had been 5 in the previous 2 seasons. However, no season has seen 4 home wins in the current format (set up in 1994/95), although in 1997/98 all 4 ended as draws. In the past 10 seasons, there have been 17 home wins, 13 draws, and 10 away wins.

As far as I could see, no team that lost the first leg at home has progressed since this format was introduced.

In 2009/10 only one of the semi-finalists had won their group. In the 6 seasons since then, only Real Madrid (twice) and Juventus have reached the semis without winning their group. Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are the only teams left in this season's competition that did not win their group. As they meet in the QFs, that will add exactly one more to the tally.

Monaco topped their group this season with 11 points, but Chelsea are the only group winners with so few points to reach the semis, although Juventus have reached the semis having finished second with 10 points, along with Real Madrid reaching the same stage when runners-up with 11 points on each occasion.

In 2011/12 all four home teams failed to score. This is the only time in the last 8 seasons that the home teams have not outscored the away teams.

In 64 ties over the last 16 seasons, only 9 teams have progressed after failing to score an away goal in the first leg; six of those being the result of 0-0 draws. The last team to qualify from the QFs having failed to score at home in the first leg was Real Madrid when beating Manchester United in 1999/2000 on their way to lifting the trophy. Two years earlier Monaco had done the same to United, who won the trophy themselves in the intervening season.

Those statistics may point to wins for Dortmund and Atletico, no worse than a draw for Barcelona, and a braver man than myself to sort out the old enemies of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby nors » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:54 am

Thanks David for your conclusion, so to repeat that means
Wins for Dortmund and Atletico, no worse than a draw for Barcelona,
So 2 home wins and a double chance on Barca.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby pep004 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:02 am

I arrived to this community little bit late, and as there are so small differences between top clubs in Europe, I think that is really tough to find the value. For me, the only valuable bet was Monaco to qualify, but odds dropped from 2,53 to 2,28 on SBO for example. I think that this duel is much closer to 50/50 than odds are showing to us. Plus Monaco is playing 2nd leg at home, which is advantage as well. Big question is if BVB can win the first leg. That might push the odds little bit higher again, but can they? I am really unsure as their defence is poor and Monaco will arrive in the box with 6-7 players, which might be cruel for Germans. But we need to consider also the other fact, which is attackers as Auba, who's pace might cause problems to relatively slow defenders Glik and Jamerson. I believe that Monaco will be positioned little bit deeper as we are used to see them. Specially because of Bakayoko suspension, who is crucial box to box midfielder for this team. They will be stronger on the ball with Moutinho, but Bakayoko were key factor of Monaco tactics against Manchester City.

When it comes to Barcelona.. they are unpredictable as sh... They should be motivated as it's Champions league, but is this "should" enough for them? Individually, this team is still among everyone in my opinion. But it's obvious that things are not as good as they should be, there are problems with manager, with leaderboard, etc. and to bet on Barca against Juventus in Torino.. I don't know. I think that odds are settled perfectly fine.

Everyone is saying, that Atletico Madrid was lucky as they pick Leicester on draw. I am not sure. Just remember the match against PSV. They cause them more problems than Barcelona. Atletico prefers to play when the opponent is having possession of the ball, but Leicester is far from that. We could even say, that Leicester is kind of English Atletico. Of course tactically far from that, we shouldn't underestimate Simeone's Atletico, but in my opinion.. they are not as big favourites as people think. They always have problems when they need to have the ball, ball movement is pretty slow for them, and they might have problems to go through Leicester's defence. I think that everything will depend on first goal. If Atletico will score, then Leicester will take the ball, because otherwise no one will be in possession :D and then things might become cruel to Leicester, as Atletico could fill them.. but if Atleti will have problems to score, than this could be a coin flip battle. Both teams strong in aerial duels, both likes to play aggressive,...

And about the last pair.. I think that Bayern is in much better situation right now. Modrić looks out of form, and if Bayern will stop Kroos, they will win midfield duels and they will create more chances. Ronaldo looks totally out of form, having some problems with Hazard situation recently, cannot find his form (years?), Bale came back after long term injury and he looks pretty "out" as well. In my opinion, Real would be more dangerous with Isco, Morata and Vazquez upfront. Sounds stupid, but trio RBB looks pretty quite recently. On the other hand Bayern is flying high, Thiago and Lewa with excellent form, while veterans Robben and Ribery are providing as well. I think that the main question here is if Ramos can save Real again or not.

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Re: Champions League Betting - Is there any value?

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:19 am

Thanks David for your conclusion, so to repeat that means
Wins for Dortmund and Atletico, no worse than a draw for Barcelona,
So 2 home wins and a double chance on Barca.
Yes, but of course I am only referring to the first leg of each match at this stage.
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