What is your most common football betting mistake?

Buckz990
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Buckz990 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:10 pm

The two mistakes I have made a lot of times are -

1. Betting on teams at very short odds to boost my acca and them letting me down.

2. Putting too many teams in my acca !! I now only bet on singles and doubles on football and maybe the occasional treble.

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby kenenek » Sun Jan 22, 2017 1:27 pm

Being too concerned about specific players.

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:02 pm

Without joking, my biggest mistake in the past has been having an opinion! There's nothing worse than free thought to mess with statistical facts and rules of engagement. Hunches and assumptions should have no place.

My focus is on results, goals, shots on target, shots ( conversion rates ) and current form. It's the most reliable measure of a team's squad status ( injuries and suspensions ) without analysing the starting line-ups in detail.

I'm only interested in matches where both teams are odds against. I go to work from there. I apply system rules from that point on.
If I deviate and make a rare exception because I have allowed some nonsense to contaminate data, I usually pay. If not short term, long term.

Note to self "Just stick to the facts"

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:02 am

Reading a great book at the moment - SQUARES & SHARPS, SUCKERS & SHARKS by Joseph Buchdahl (The science, psychology and philosophy of gambling).
A chapter in the book - THE HARDER I WORK, THE LUCKIER I GET offers some useful insight.

Inspired by some of the content in that book and this topic, I have discovered an even bigger mistake than simply clouding facts. For me personally, that is. Some of you may be very good at making judgements not based on any factual / objective / statistical evidence.

Not paying enough attention to the odds being offered has surely been my biggest bank bully in the past.
It's not whether you can predict the winner or not. There is, without doubt, a predictability about football. Every final league table has a familiar look about it in May, does it not? The better teams win more often.

But bettors are not in the business of finding winners alone. Finding winners alone will not reward them with profit. The odds on offer will invariably be too skinny. The real work for any bettor serious about making profit, is in overcoming what can only be described as the handicap. Bettors have to negotiate the handicap (the odds). The betting market is a derivative of sorts. It's a melting pot of opinion, and every player is looking to agree on a handicap, based on their calculations, that they think will best afford them a winning chance long term, financially that is.

In much the same way a property investor / developer makes his money when he buys and not when he sells, a bettor makes his money based on the odds he takes, not just the outcome.

Blindly backing every selection at any specific price (every selection at 2/1, for example) will lose you money. That is because more often than not, the handicap assigned (odds on offer) are not an accurate reflection of the probability. It's the job of the layer to see to it. The bettors job is to find the winners that have been inaccurately handicapped by the layer. Not quite such a sexy gig, this betting for a living game.

In much the same way a property investor / developer is looking for property available at below market value.
Last edited by Inquisitorem on Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: What is your most common betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:23 am

I don't think we spend enough time looking back at our bets. Once the days sport is over we tend to move on too quickly. This is partly because there are so many betting opportunities coming thick and fast.

Excellent point! This is a practise I have adopted. Not just to identify how unlucky I may have been to lose, but how lucky I may have been to win.

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby nors » Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:55 am

Inquisitorem welcome to OLBG. We have awarded you a forum discussion award (£10) for your contribution to the forum. Discussion is the lifeblood of a forum and your early helpful contributions are excellent. We hope you will continue interacting and adding helpful posts.

P.S No Links Please.

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:17 pm

Inquisitorem welcome to OLBG. We have awarded you a forum discussion award (£10) for your contribution to the forum. Discussion is the lifeblood of a forum and your early helpful contributions are excellent. We hope you will continue interacting and adding helpful posts.

P.S No Links Please.

Thank you, Nors!

Noted 'links' stipulation. No problem. I have to say, I just clicked straight to the football pages and so totally missed the forum rules.

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Peter Portman » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:34 pm

Betting on a favorite team. Without analyzing all necessary data and possible information... yeah...

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Crofty11 » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:15 pm

Re _ sticking to the facts. And having an opinion.

Before I retired I worked a lot in the area of how managers are successful in business, we analysed their behaviours and came up with a number of criteria that are. important. Two of these were,

Problem analysis . The definition being , the ability to recognise and categorise all the relevant information and data , both hard and soft , pertaining to a situation or problem.

Judgement. The definition being the ability to correctly interpret the outcome of the result of problem analysis, and most importantly act on it.

Judgement was the most critical success criteria, especially when there is gaps in the data supplied through problem analysis.

So I would contend that having an opinion on the facts and implementing it, (having a wager using a sensible staking plan) , is actually the key driver of success.

In my scenario your system rules give the required judgement on the facts, so I would contend that the system rules are actually your opinion.

Added. So the addional stuff is distorting your opinion. I don't have a set of rules that I use ..I would be interested to know what one or two of your system rules are, if you don't mind sharing?

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:27 am

For me personally, crofty11, there's enough randomness and luck in the outcome of sport without me guessing between the numbers too. If I follow criteria or rules, it's simply because the numbers dictate based on a past performance sample. I just trust the numbers and then watch with curiosity. Periodically, I might take a fresh look at the sample to see if it is dictating a change. I wouldn't make a change because I had a feeling about it. I'd make a change because the numbers were telling me to. Anything objective is a blessing in this game.

Take bookmakers for example. They make money because they offer odds below what they calculate to be the probability. Those odds are only moved by changing probability ( in-play ) or weight of money ( again, the numbers ). Winners are easy to find. Winners where the odds are more generous than the probability, are not. There are a small number of predictable games, but an even smaller number that will provide what you might calculate to be value.

It's all just number play. It's essential that many lose at this game so that a few can win, for example. Paradoxically, the more we help each other to win ( if that's what we eventually do ), the more difficult it will get. The odds will get skinnier and skinnier. Just numbers.
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:38 am

Hi Crofty

Just seen your added comment.

An example would be price stipulation or range. There has to be a price framework to work with. Otherwise it's difficult to calculate long term profitability.

For example: If I apply stat triggers to teams or horses for that matter, it has to only apply to that range. If my stat triggers throw up a strike rate of 65% and I am applying it to a 1/1 to 3/1 price range, the projected profit is positive.
It doesn't matter if it throws up selections that are 1/2, 2/5 etc
They're ignored because the figures don't make for good reading long term. Unless, of course, by including those picks, the strike rate shoots up too.

Another example, with regard to goals.
If I look at current form, be it 4, 6, 8, 10 matches, I would marry the goals for and against for both teams in that time. If the framework is 5 games, I would be looking for a team to show a 5 goal superiority (1 goal per game), at least. Anything less wouldn't make sense to me.

It's just me personally. If I start to make calls outside of the statistical facts, I can no longer truly measure the performance of the method, as it's been contaminated.

I do get your point though.
For example, if you want to calculate probability based on form. You would have to make a judgement as to how you calculate that because it's even more subjective. And ideally you would do it in a different way to a bookmaker, looking to get an advantage. No good drawing the same conclusions, they'll be pricing it below that probability. It's their job.
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Inquisitorem » Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:22 pm

A snapshot of tonight's football in the Premier League. I'll use the first theee games.

Arsenal v Watford
I calculate Arsenal have a 62-68% chance of winning ( I use more than one way so it's not absolute, I like working with ranges ). The bookies, however, are offering Arsenal at odds suggesting they have an 80% chance. Although they look good, I'll lose in the long run at those odds because I would expect Arsenal to drop points 32-38 times out of 100.

Bournemouth v Palace
I calculate a 50% chance in favour of Bournemouth. A coin toss. Why would I be interested? I can play that in a casino.

Burnley v Leicester
I calculate Burnley have a 50-68% chance of winning. Bookies calculate they have a 33% chance and offer 2/1. If I play here, and Burnley drop points 32-50 times out of 100, I still win, because I am getting 2's for the 50-68 times out of a 100 I expect them to win.

I guess what I am saying is, don't oppose your statistical findings / evidence.
But I appreciate there may be a judgement call on some aspects of criteria ( but still based on numbers rather than hunch though ).

Hope that makes some sense. I just like working stuff out systematically.
The challenge is a bit like doing a crossword for me. I'm looking to answer a question using the clues.
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