What is your most common football betting mistake?

Evgenios83
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Evgenios83 » Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:43 am

A lot of my common mistakes in football betting I have over time learnt to rectify through experience

One that has caught me out on occassion this year is as follows

"If it looks to good to be true, it probably is"

Example
There are certain games where a team is in such good form you can fool yourself into thinking a bad price is a good one when doing pre match analysis, often you may even ignore your gut instinct, big mistake, if you do have good instincts, if you smell a rat then stay away.

A good example is Nice vs Monaco, the away side had won 7 games going into that match and were priced around evens, I was aprehensive about whether it should be backed as I suspected it was not a good option to take. How many times can Monaco possibly win away and are they such a good team that evens away against a tough team like Nice is justified, no its not, its a bad price.

Having re-inforced that lesson, laster in the season I sensed another rat when Monaco played away against Dijon and had come into the game on a 5 game winning streak, I said to myself, no this is a bad price because Dijon had performed excellently at home against quality sides this season and Monaco being well below evens was simply not an acceptable price

So the lesson here is do not back a team with a bad price because they are in great form because form is temporary, also you have to ask yourself how good a team is, I suspect Monaco will not surpass the seven game winning streak they had earlier in the season because even though they are a very good side, its a lot to ask

In Play
Also don't be fooled by In Play stats, you may look at an online betting site and see a side has had 8 shots and the other has had 1, this may influence you in putting a bet on the side with the shots, however a common thing that happens is a side wastes their chances and get punished, also the shots may have been hopeless, shot stats are not enough alone to suggest a team is going to win, sometimes a team has a lot of shots and win but its best to do some background research and not jump on every team that seems to be dominating

Good luck

jibberjag
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby jibberjag » Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:19 pm

A lot of my common mistakes in football betting I have over time learnt to rectify through experience

One that has caught me out on occassion this year is as follows

"If it looks to good to be true, it probably is"

Example
There are certain games where a team is in such good form you can fool yourself into thinking a bad price is a good one when doing pre match analysis, often you may even ignore your gut instinct, big mistake, if you do have good instincts, if you smell a rat then stay away.

A good example is Nice vs Monaco, the away side had won 7 games going into that match and were priced around evens, I was aprehensive about whether it should be backed as I suspected it was not a good option to take. How many times can Monaco possibly win away and are they such a good team that evens away against a tough team like Nice is justified, no its not, its a bad price.

Having re-inforced that lesson, laster in the season I sensed another rat when Monaco played away against Dijon and had come into the game on a 5 game winning streak, I said to myself, no this is a bad price because Dijon had performed excellently at home against quality sides this season and Monaco being well below evens was simply not an acceptable price

So the lesson here is do not back a team with a bad price because they are in great form because form is temporary, also you have to ask yourself how good a team is, I suspect Monaco will not surpass the seven game winning streak they had earlier in the season because even though they are a very good side, its a lot to ask

In Play
Also don't be fooled by In Play stats, you may look at an online betting site and see a side has had 8 shots and the other has had 1, this may influence you in putting a bet on the side with the shots, however a common thing that happens is a side wastes their chances and get punished, also the shots may have been hopeless, shot stats are not enough alone to suggest a team is going to win, sometimes a team has a lot of shots and win but its best to do some background research and not jump on every team that seems to be dominating

Good luck
That is a mistake I often made Evgenios83. So now I have started to analyse well before I look at the price. If price is rubbish when I do look then no bet.
I think your point is also true when refering to Asian Handicaps on strong favs. Just because a team is so short that -2.5AH is the only value, doesnt mean its actually a good tip!

People are tricked into thinking that odds are always perfect and correct. I honestly think most odds compilers don't use and have access to much more info than us!

The hard part is analysing a team to win. Looking at the odds of say 5.00 and still backing them. Your mind instinctively say no, the odds must know more than me.

Again I like our points here about In-Play - SOT alone is not a good indicator. Your bet must still fit with you pre-match thoughts and corners but be high aswell. More corners means more attacks/saves/blocks.
Often you see a team with 10+ SOT not scoring more than 1. How? Well unless you are watching the game, who knows who they've got counting these.

Great post though Evgenios83, really made me think about errors I have made!

chestnutflamesprite
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby chestnutflamesprite » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:42 am

When my decisions are purely based on instincts instead of doing my research. Relying heavily on emotions does not always work and more often than not, always, fails.

wonderwall
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby wonderwall » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:20 am

My common mistake is hunting for tips all over the Internet, when in reality, there's not much out there, would anyone seriously publicly broadcast any successful hard work :)

Another one is looking for unknown leagues, like Egypt, Congo, just because its on at a particular time, nothing beats following a Team (personally I would suggest not your own), a Particular League and I would suggest the lower English Leagues, the Ryman etc, because the bookies must put less effort into these as their risk is lower, so hopefully the value must be greater ?

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby botev1921 » Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:38 pm

The biggest mistake one could make is not knowing when to stop. If you are losing, TAKE A BREAK, STEP BACK AND RELAX. Do not over-analyse or think about what could have been as you will get deeper and deeper into convincing yourself the next bet will get you out of it. If things don't go your way, maybe they will in a few days time. Never allow to get buried in losses. If you have won in the past, then it is very likely you will be winning again at some point, you just need a clear head!

Afrobet
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Afrobet » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:49 am

Picking smallest odds

simoncoolhand
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby simoncoolhand » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:50 pm

My most common mistake is posting last man standing after the deadline for the round :lol:

Oh well, won't bother making that mistake again lol.

Cannaetip
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Cannaetip » Sat Jan 14, 2017 10:12 am

"If it looks to good to be true, it probably is" quote] :yes:

jibberjag
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby jibberjag » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:32 pm

I think one thing I really struggle with is picking under's.

When looking through games my mind can pick out games I think should go over 2.5. But ask me to go and pick under 2.5 games and I would always struggle. Same with picking draws.

I suppose my mistake here is just because I wouldn't pick o2.5 doesn't necessarily mean the pick is u2.5. Sometimes it is. No value. No bet.

If that makes sense to anyone!

robinho7
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby robinho7 » Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:27 pm

These errors are mainly made on football betting.

Biggest and probably the most common mistake i've made is when you win money, especially a fair amount, thinking you've beaten the bookies and then use the winnings to place more bets that day. When you start losing, you play catch up and end up losing all your original winnings. (The reason Bookies have been forced to tell punters that there's a daily deposit limit available, but not automatically setup on accounts! similar to cigarette companies being forced to advertise health warnings on the packets but nobody takes any notice of it).

Good job i'm more sensible now!

The other thing i've completely stopped doing is betting big since the in-play markets have become available. What's the point in putting a £50 acc because if you're first selection loses and in an early kick off you'll end up putting more money on for the later games. I prefer just putting on a number of 50p or £1 acc's on wins and OVER 2.5 Goals especially on a Saturday afternoon as it's more fun watching 1 come in after another. That way you have fun and only lose the same money other people spend on the Lottery each week. Also, by doing that you only need 1 big and you're up for the season. I've had at least 1 £1 winner at 1,000/1 odds or better for the past 6 seasons.

I remember the first time i won a big amount before online betting became big. Not really knowing how the odds work and walking into the bookies buzzing because i think i've won a few hundred quid before they start handing me £1,800 in £20 notes. Haven't been more scared about being mugged in all my life lol...

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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby Cannaetip » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:05 pm

:? Are you looking at me? :lol:

gio1965
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Re: What is your most common football betting mistake?

Postby gio1965 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:51 pm

My biggest mistake is picking a team with all the research i have done on them and placing them in multiples of different bets , when this this team loses all my bets go down . Slowly learning there is never a sure Thing

Proof was yesterday

France La Ligue 1 Nice at home to Metz

Nice where top of the table and never lost at home priced around 1/2 . Metz on the other hand bottom of the league priced around 13/2. Game ended in a draw.

Sometimes and only sometimes David does beat Goliath.

Good luck to every one !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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