Can you make a living betting on football?

Is it possible to make a living soccer betting?

Yes
197
51%
No
191
49%
 
Total votes: 388
mathsbet
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Postby mathsbet » Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:15 pm

I think this proves the point I made in the other post that its impossible to make money on football because the odds are exactly right.
Neither of those statements are true.

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Postby wikidme » Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:50 pm

I think this proves the point I made in the other post that its impossible to make money on football because the odds are exactly right.
Neither of those statements are true.
why would you doubt it?

if the over/under 2.5 goals market odds are very very accurate it follows that the other markets are probably also very accurate since all the markets are linked.

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Postby mathsbet » Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:01 pm

I can tell you for a fact that there is quite a sizeable cleavage between the odds and reality. To be totally blunt about it, I know this because I make money from diving into that cleavage. If I can make money from systems that can outwit the bookies and I have only been doing this for a little over a year, I can also guarantee you that there are dozens or hundreds or thousands of people who are better at it than me and who also make money from it.

The bookies are not infallible.

Edit to add: It's interesting you mention the o/u 2.5 goals market which you suggest is very accurate, yet after just 17 games of o/u 2.5 goal bets, my new system is +6.16 points on that category. How can that be, if the odds are very very accurate? It cannot be, hence the odds are not very accurate at all. They are, in fact, quite inaccurate. (blog with all of those games here, all posted before the fact, no trickery involved :) http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic31_57969_24.html)

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Postby Football DZR » Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:02 am


I can tell you for a fact that there is quite a sizeable cleavage between the odds and reality. To be totally blunt about it, I know this because I make money from diving into that cleavage.

Edit to add: It's interesting you mention the o/u 2.5 goals market which you suggest is very accurate, yet after just 17 games of o/u 2.5 goal bets, my new system is +6.16 points on that category. How can that be, if the odds are very very accurate? It cannot be, hence the odds are not very accurate at all.
I have a number of pet hates about betting, one is "bad maths" and another is "preaching" bad "anything" . Sorry @mathsbet to me here i question the sense of what you write

Are the odds for the over / under 2.5 goals market accurate ??

This is answered in practical terms (as it never can be "proven" a fact either way) by calculating the returns of a bet on over (or under) on every possible available 2.5 line and seeing what exclusively betting on one outcome gives. To then say the market is false after adjusting to 100% book the bets would really need to show a better % profit or loss than the average market move. (and something similar can be done for any other market). I am pretty sure most are close to accurate with a few %.

If you want to say somebody statement the market is accurate is a false one that is what you would need to calculate, not some claim of profit or some 17 bet example.

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Postby mathsbet » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:54 pm

The approach you outline is one possibility to demonstrate the accuracy of u/o 2.5, but even if the bookies odds over, for example, an entire league season, are correct (and I suspect they are not in many cases), that does not mean that their odds on every individual game are correct or, as the original poster contended, that the odds are always exactly right.

If there is any way to find a selection within the whole which shows a profit, it demonstrates that the odds on those games were obviously not exactly correct. Obviously, it is possible for a bookies odds to add up to zero over a long enough period, but that does not mean that the odds are always exactly right.

In the same way as the bookies might be generally right while being specifically wrong, it might be true to say that Team A scores on average 2 goals a game given the following results, but it's also true to say that Team A never scores 2 goals a game.

Team A 4-0 Team B
Team A 0-0 Team C
Team A 0-1 Team D
Team A 6-0 Team E
Team A 0-0 Team F

If you're a bookie, you'll be fine setting the line at 2 goals over the long run, but clearly, if you're a punter, there's an edge to be found there in the unders.

Incidentally, I do not base my comments on a 17 bet sample, I base it on backtesting across thousands of fixtures. I can assure you there are massive edges to be found in the goal markets.

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Postby Football DZR » Tue Dec 15, 2015 7:20 am

"Edit to add: It's interesting you mention the o/u 2.5 goals market which you suggest is very accurate, yet after just 17 games of o/u 2.5 goal bets, my new system is +6.16 points on that category. How can that be, if the odds are very very accurate? It cannot be, hence the odds are not very accurate at all. They are, in fact, quite inaccurate. (blog with all of those games here, all posted before the fact, no trickery involved Smile http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic31_57969_24.html)" - Mathsbet

Well actually you did claim your 17 bets producing winnings on the o u 2.5 market was evidence the bookies/market odds were inaccurate, i coped your quote again above. Using an example of bets like the one you did "bettor Y wins X >> therefore odds are wrong" to me shown a pretty major lack of realizing the maths underlying bet calculations.

I see the link to the blog now shows the profit for o / u market has been eliminated, does that now mean you have proven the odds are more accurate correct to true probabilities now (i dont know id kind of think the accuracy of the market odds is exactly the same as it was and your about 20 bet win/loss is irrelevant to that)

I am not saying you or anybody cannot find a genuine legitimate edge on any market ,o/u 2.5 included, just that how you ve gone about support the claim is close to absurd to me

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Postby mathsbet » Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:37 pm

@Football DZR, actually, the profit on the o/u 2.5 hasn't been wiped out, but as I've said several times, my outlook is not based on small samples, but on very large samples, and it's my strong opinion that it is possible to find an edge in the goals markets, which you seem to agree with, and therefore the statement that 'the odds are always correct' is patently untrue.

And yes, I would argue that the wipeout my system suffered at the weekend was indeed evidence that both the odds, and my calculations, were incorrect, and that both myself and the bookies (as most of the bets were odds on) got it wrong, failed to take something into account (weather, perhaps).

I will give you a more definitive proof of my point, in line with what you mentioned before. If the odds are out of line, we should be able to, for example, blindly back a team and make a profit. Using a new system that I am just in the process of testing, I have identified and backtested for teams that are indicated as likely to be involved in higher scoring games than their previous season's performance.

I don't have time to do enough teams to provide mathematically conclusive proof by going through dozens of teams, but if I had all afternoon, I could give you at least 40 or 50 examples of specific teams being priced in error.

Here are the handful of teams I did, and obviously anyone can check that these calculations are correct using Betexplorer. I didn't even use best odds in these calculations, closer to mean odds. You would have to concede they are evidence of significant errors in the bookies pricing of these markets - and these are not minor leagues.

B Mgladbach 13/14 season
Home games, over 2.5 LSP: +3.97

Bayer Leverkusen 13/14 season
Home games, over 2.5 LSP: +2.10

Hoffenheim 13/14
Away games, over 2.5 goals LSP: +2.80

Spain 14/15
Valencia
Home over 2.5: +3.05

German BL Augsburg 14/15
Home over 2.5: +3.10

Edit to add: this discussion has actually given me the idea to backtest this new system for blindly backing over or under based on a projection of the team's relative performance. Here's another one the bookies got wrong. Only one of the biggest teams in Europe...

Bayern Munich 13/14 Home Under 2.5 goals: +3.0

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Postby Stewjmitch30 » Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:32 pm

Football (soccer) can be a very difficult market to bet on particularly for someone who bases their decision solely on stats. However a number of sports websites have made it much easier to make a profit with the Cash Out or partial cash out options available, there is a certain amount of risk with any sport. A large bank isn't always important just a greater knowledge of multiples cross market betting and insurance however without the larger stakes it will take time to build up larger profits especially in the cash out markets as this offers a small profit at a fraction of the odds.

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Postby johnyyydal24 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:22 pm

m.o.b ...... just about has it covered , a very big bank would be required - I'd suggest maybe £200k , discipline - courage and extra toilet paper would also be required.
I remember there you to be a guy who became very rich betting on the photo finnish in horse racing just thought I would mention it.

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Postby presldn » Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:19 pm

Hi, where did you find this article from?

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Postby TheHawkz » Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:48 pm

I don't buy that sucessful pros have highs and lows as previously mentioned. Not one myself but a pro wouldn't be risking more than say 3-4% of their bank and i doubt most care if a bet loses as its all stats based. If they did stake more they wouldn't be a pro for long.

Off track their must be hundreds of people who call themselves pros just because they don't work and bet big stakes for a few years (probably had a lucky one off big win or rich relative and living of the money).

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Postby 9nynemm » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:58 am

[quote="man o bong"][quote]

The Question i presume is straight forward enough,can you make a living off football betting?I will answer yes to that but my yes will depend solely on one characteristic which is "will".

Life is not a bed of roses they say,You can bet all the time but you sure cant win all the time,there are people out there ,some where, where? i don't really know ,but i figure many place their respective bets,claiming they have a separate account for the bet or it does not affect their normal mind or normal thinking.

When you place a bet, your only best saviour is to be engaged doing something, whereas,you will have to fight ad wait the thought out, and what thought is that? It is the thought of the bet you placed.

What makes you think so much about your bet is your will power, those who have that tend to win in the end,when u follow your bet so much, imagine,you placed a bet on a game and you didnt have the chace to watch it live or on tv, the only media around was the internet,so you decided to check live scores, you kept refreshing the score page like every 5 seconds just to keep your eager nerves updated on the scores,when u eventually win the bet it is a good feeling but when u loose you will never forget that team that made you feel so disappointed and made you loose your bet,so next time out of impulse or reflex, you will bet wisely against that team.

Your will,will make u or break you, so to make a living out of football bet really depends on you,how smart you are,how to keep sane when you hear so many voices in your head telling you what to predict,remember all you want to do is win,so remember that all the way,it is your catalyst alongside your Will

Mod edit: There is no need whatsoever to copy the entire content from directly above,it messes the forum and not easy on the users eye. Simply refer to the original contributor. Thanks

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