Roulette Scandal??

jwoody
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 7345
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:00 am
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace

Postby jwoody » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:20 pm

Apologies! I've misunderstood again :shock:

The croupier had to hit the section 9 out of 18 times, not 9 times in a row.

So basically the croupier has to hit nine 6/1 shots (roughly) in the space of 18 spins, which is more likely but still very unlikely. Still plenty of value for the pit boss unless he is laying at crazy odds.

Am I right in saying I finally understand the bet Goldfish?

goldfish
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 99
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:00 pm

Postby goldfish » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:22 pm

YES LOL

jwoody
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 7345
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:00 am
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace

Postby jwoody » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:23 pm

im not stirring anything up, im just standing up for someone when people are unnecessarily attacking them for not getting it.
I accept this, but the manner in which you have done this has been typically sarcastic and inflaming, in my opinion.

jwoody
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 7345
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:00 am
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace

Postby jwoody » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:32 pm

YES LOL

Woooohoooooo! :D There's a pint with your name on it at the next OLBG get together for taking the time to explain it in a way I understood :win:

I reckon it's not that people were attacking you Goldfish, they just had issues with what was being said and outlined the problems they had accordingly. It was then down to you to defend your comments, which you did by providing the necessary information.

Either way, I still think that the only way to make money from Roulette is by being the house. I'd be willing to listen if you can prove to me mathematically that I'm wrong.
Last edited by jwoody on Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

man o bong
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 17441
Joined: Fri Aug 12, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Mojacar, Almeria
Contact:

Postby man o bong » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:37 pm

I may add that also i have stated elswhere on the discussion in the other thread that i dont doubt for a minute that profits can be made from playing roulette. I was protesting about the probability factors only.

As far as imflaming. I have nothing personal against Goldfish, i dont even know the guy, but we have had heated debate on two occasions trying to get to the crux of the discussion, and clearing up any misunderstandings.

I think i am perfectly straightforward in the way i explain myself and ask questions. Not really a fance sitter. But then if everyone was a fence sitter there would be no debate at all, and the majority of the forums would be empty.

goldfish
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 99
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:00 pm

Postby goldfish » Fri Mar 06, 2009 5:17 pm

I did try to Explain how you can put the odds of roulette in your favour but everyone just started saying you cant overcome the house edge. When I tried to show In my opinion that you can I was ridiculed and told you cant overcome the laws of probabilit
The law of probability exists of course it does,but it doesnt mean the outcome of roulette spins are going to abide by these laws all the time.

See if u agree with me on this a simple example of how the odds are more in your favour.
If u divide the wheel into 4 sections of 9 numbers starting at 32 going clockwise around the wheel and number them 1,2,3,4.(missing out zero)
Then write down the numbers as the croupier spins them and make note of which sections they land in sometimes they will come out pretty even but other times they will come out very lobsided.
So when you find one section is not showing if you place 12 chips at random among the other three sections(27 no.s) I found that because the ball was landing at the time in the 3 sections that I was placing my bets in then I had more chance of hitting one of my 12 numbers,and of course your getting 2/1 if u hit.
Now I know that on paper all four sections of the wheel still have the same probability of coming out but I won more times than i lost over a longish period which shows that I had nullified the house edge.

Can u see how this works and why?

jwoody
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 7345
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:00 am
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace

Postby jwoody » Fri Mar 06, 2009 6:11 pm

I can see how the system works in that you focus on the 3 sections that are getting the most hits and leave out the 1 section that has'nt hit much during that session, you randomly pick 12 numbers from the 3 sections that are doing well and put a chip on each number, thereby making it a 2/1 bet that pays out at slightly less than 2/1, and there lies the house edge.

The only way I can see this system making a profit is with a malfunctioning wheel, or, the croupier was actually able to place the ball in one specific area more often than probability says it should, there would need to be a logical reason for why there was a bias, whether it be short term or long term. If there was'nt a logical reason then that would mean you could predict the outcome of future spins, which the laws of probability says can't happen as probability has no memory.

I'm not saying you don't make good money from roulette by employing various systems, what I'm trying to say is that your success has nothing to do with probability, which to my knowledge only leaves factors such as defective wheels and croupiers who somehow are spinning the wheel and ball in a way that favours certain numbers. A defective wheel seems the more likely reason why it is happening, it would be interesting to know whether the croupier was aware that he/she was spinning the ball in 3 out of the 4 sections more often than they should be, I also wonder if this is something the casino would be looking out for.

Why do you think this system is successful Goldfish?

goldfish
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 99
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:00 pm

Postby goldfish » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:04 pm

Sorry had to go out to pick the other half up.

Well It wasnt on one wheel this worked in any live casino and the modern wheels have no bais on them.

I can see that from your answer that you dont agree with my principle but thats ok.
The only way I can see this system making a profit is with a malfunctioning wheel, or, the croupier was actually able to place the ball in one specific area more often than probability says it should, there would need to be a logical reason for why there was a bias, whether it be short term or long term. If there was'nt a logical reason then that would mean you could predict the outcome of future spins, which the laws of probability says can't happen as probability has no memory.
Sorry but your not getting it are you. What u have said above implies that the wheel has to be biased or the croupier is section spinning for the ball to land in 3 sections and not the fourth very often this is not true.
So if the wheel wasnt baised and the croupier wasnt section spinning your saying that probability would have the ball land in each area in equal amounts. This doesnt happen and if It did that would be even more predictable would it not!
thereby making it a 2/1 bet that pays out at slightly less than 2/1, and there lies the house edge.
Also how does it pay slightly less than 2/1 ?
You outlay 12 chips and u get back 36 thats exactly 2/1

borogal
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:00 am

Postby borogal » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:19 pm

I also thought this was a kind of squeeze play but declined to enter the fray....
Also how does it pay slightly less than 2/1 ?
You outlay 12 chips and u get back 36 thats exactly 2/1
Does the "0" not come into play regarding overall odds?

jwoody
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 7345
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 12:00 am
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace

Postby jwoody » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:22 pm

So if the wheel wasnt baised and the croupier wasnt section spinning your saying that probability would have the ball land in each area in equal amounts
I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that it's random and you can't predict the future.
Also how does it pay slightly less than 2/1 ?
You outlay 12 chips and u get back 36 thats exactly 2/1
My understanding was that you were missing out zero? Obviously the casino still take your 12 chips when it lands on zero. I've sat at a table for a few hours where zero must have come up at least 10 times, it's as likely as any other number on the wheel. That's the edge I was referring to. I know you get a 2/1 payout, but you have to factor in the possibility of hitting zero and that means -12 chips every time it happens if I've understood the system correctly.

Is the zero missing?

goldfish
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 99
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:00 pm

Postby goldfish » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:29 pm

your chance of winning a normal 12 number bet is less than 2/1 chance that is not what I said though I said You get paid 2/1 on your bet.
And even better uv got more chance of hitting it when betting at the correct time using the system.

Sorry but thats it now I have spent to much time on here why I dont know, If you dont get it or understand it then its to bad.

manafana
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6373
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2005 11:00 pm
Location: Dublin, via tipperary and galway

Postby manafana » Fri Mar 20, 2009 9:39 am

i think u mean the odds are greater than 2/1 that your bet will work so in 1in3 chance is value of 2/1 bet but u probably have a 1in3.2 chance with the house edge.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users