Roulette systems/strategies

Betfairalfie
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Postby Betfairalfie » Fri Feb 20, 2009 7:24 am

Guys I concede defeat. You win. Your system works and me and my laws of mathematics and probability theory have been proven wrong.

Nurse - More medication please :lol:

Andy4Fingers
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Postby Andy4Fingers » Fri Feb 20, 2009 9:40 am

I've been reading this thread and enjoyed it very much so I'd just like to put my 2 pennies worth in.
The laws of probability dont work out perfectly do they if they did when you toss a coin 50 times it would come up 25 heads 25 tails but that is not the case most times the results will be skewed.
The emboldened part of this statement tells me that you will lose money eventually. The laws of probability do work out perfectly over a suitably large sample size. If you toss a coin an infinite number of times the outcome will be exactly 50/50 and this is why you don't have a system, you have had a run of good luck.
lets say that its just gone RED-BLACK-RED-BLACK-RED-BLACK-RED-BLACK
on paper the odds of red or black coming out next spin are equal but because its on a TREND of alternating I would be more inclined to back RED. Now i am not saying that it will deffinatly hit Red but that it is more likely because of the pattern that its showing us at the present time.
There are no such things as trends or patterns when the outcome is totally random and it certainly is not "more likely" to hit red.


The only things that are not dictated by probability when playing roulette are things like the power the ball is spun with, any slight variation of the table e.g. the tilt or any inconsistencies on the wheel (which would probably be picked up on very quickly by the casino) so these are the things that you would need to figure out. But they are such small variables as to be almost non existent - If they weren't, the casino would change them.

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:03 am

Great thread this despite not being all that informitive, I feel like both sides of the arguments are on the wind up here!

I'd like to say that there's some resonable explanations of probability and why games like roulette are always stacked in the casino/bookies favour though I may get shot down by those who beating it!

I'm really quite intrigued by those that say they can predict outcomes through patterns. I can personally only see an overall skew in results occuring on a particular wheel or with a particular croupier.

Quite amusing how late some people stay up arguing over the merits of probability vs. guessing!

Do you guys never go to bed?

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Postby portvalenil » Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:11 am

How can you see a pattern that hasn't happened yet?

I can understand the concept of betting on patterns - but if you are waiting for 5 heads to come up once in 32 times you will only get 31/1 anyway. So what's the point? Perhaps Fish has uncovered some smart way of exploiting a sophistocated chaos theory .. who knows.

Trends are OK if they are likely to be continued .. Fulham drawing away 0-0 for example. Betting on a roulette wheel is a classic "rear view mirror" scenario.

Have you ever tried driving a car by ignoring what's visible through the windscreen - and only looking through the rear view mirror to see where you've just been? If it's too dangerous for you to try, just follow the Fish system as the next best option.

The only people to beat roulette were those who had a computer in their shoe that worked out an edge, based on where the ball hit the wheel. Brilliant story for anyone who hasn't read about it yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eudaemons

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:31 am

The only people to beat roulette were those who had a computer in their shoe that worked out an edge, based on where the ball hit the wheel. Brilliant story for anyone who hasn't read about it yet.
I've got a laptop but it's way too big to fit in my shoe! wouldn't be too discreet!!! :lol:
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Postby goldfish » Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:42 pm

Andy4fingers

Andy sorry but u have not read or taken in what i have said properly, Iam only betting for 2 spins at the end of 16 previous spins not over a hundreds or thousands or infinate amount where probability says that all things will end up equal. So your point is not valid.

Are you also saying that you cant win at roulette because and i quote "There are no such things as trends or patterns when the outcome is totally random and it certainly is not "more likely" to hit red."

Right Iam sorry but you are wrong when it does a run like the one i gave an example of ie. R/B/R/B/R/B/R/B/R/B/R/B can you not see that in order for that sequence to happen it has to start off by going R/B/R YES am i right or wrong? think youll find iam right! so when its gone R/B/R that tells me that it could be about to start or continue in that pattern so i bet on BLACK and it comes in i then bet on RED it comes in and so on until the end of the run. Making a total of 9 winning bets on the trot and one losing bet at the end.

Olso the pattern can be say 9 or 12 or just 6 reds or blacks on the trot but in order for any of those sequences to appear it has to start either R/R then i would start betting or of course B/B then i would start there.

Can not believe that iam having to explain this step by step this is basic common sense stuff guys come on get a grip.

Its the same with the end numbers when it does a sequence of four numbers ie 21,2,33,14 thats just one example where the end numbers as i call them have just come out in sequence ie a number ending in 1 has gone to a number ending in 2 and then to one ending in 3 and finally ending in 4. THIS SEQUENCE has to start with a 1 going to a 2 so then you just put one chip on all the 3s ie 3,13,23,33 if it doesnt come in youve only lost 4 chips but if it does hit you divide the 36 chips you get back by 4 and put 9 chips on all the numbers ending in 4, ie 4,14,24,34 simple if that doesnt come youve still only lost 4 chips or you can even take the four back and just put 8 chips on the four numbers that way u lose nothing. If it comes in with the nine on u get back 324 for an initial outlay of just four chips.

These are my final words on the matter instead of arguing and aimlessly knocking nearly everything that i have put forward why not go away and try it for yourselves over say a month then come back after youve actually tried what iam on about and give me your opinion then instead of this endless drivel and [REMOVED - JWOODY] :win:

Andy4Fingers
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Postby Andy4Fingers » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:13 pm

I am only betting for 2 spins at the end of 16 previous spins not over a hundreds or thousands or infinate amount where probability says that all things will end up equal. So your point is not valid.
Yes, you're quite right. Probability theory doesn't apply when it's at the end of 16 previous spins. I'll alert the maths community and you tell all the theoretical scientists who use probability principles in their work.

Are you also saying that you cant win at roulette
No. People have made money at roulette by analysing certain flaws in particular wheels (take this case, the slight tilt of the wheel being responsible for more outcomes of one number than another http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/ ... 18860.html ) but that wasn't disproving probability, merley adjusting to a tangable fault on the wheel. That is the only way to gain any edge over the house, by analysing the physical side of it, since the numbers alone cannot be overcome.
I'm not saying there aren't patterns in the numbers that come out, there quite clearly are. I'm also not saying that those patterns don't have a beginning a middle and an end, they quite clearly do. But it's just coincidence if and when they occur.

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Postby goldfish » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:28 pm

sorry Andy but a roulette wheel on a slant was in fact tested years ago and the results where no different to a perfectly level one.

You should be able to work out yourself why this would be but to save you time i will tell you, If the wheel was on a slant but not moving(stationary) then obviously the ball would drop to the low point and only hit about 6 numbers in that area, unfortunatly the wheel as we all know is always moving so how can certian numbers always meet up with the ball at the low point of the wheel , they cant can they.

please think first people b4 u jump in with both feet :lol:

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Postby fairfranco » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:32 pm

I should leave this alone as I can see you do (or certainly say you do) make nice profits on this and believe in your system but I just want to say this.

Any pattern or sequences that appear through roulette are purely conincidental as each individual event is independent from the next.

In the same way as if I flick a coin and it lands on heads 5 times in a row, it doesn't make it more likely to land on tails the next time as event is completely independent of the previous one.

I don't want to teach statistics so won't go on any further with this!
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Postby goldfish » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:36 pm

OMG yes of course their coincidental iam not saying anthing to the contrary the art is to get on the bloody thing when it shows up.
Last edited by goldfish on Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jwoody
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Postby jwoody » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:40 pm

Please check your PM's Goldfish

Andy4Fingers
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Postby Andy4Fingers » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:46 pm

Not necessarily just a tilt (though even a tilt that is almost invisible would have an affect) but things like any slant of the casino floor, minute discrepancies when the wheel is manufactured, wearing over time of different parts, things like that.
I've given you an example of someone who has won €600,000 in a day playing roulette by finding a wheel with a flaw and you still don't believe it?

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