World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Nowl12
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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby Nowl12 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:45 pm

[quote=tbuckley post_id=1660324 time=1526948566 user_id=93049]
Hello there, those of you that know me and have come across me on here before will know that I like to take on different types of betting challenges including in the past doing An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge at the last World Cup & the last European Championships

.....

PHEW!!! :phew: - I've finally finished it, that's my take on the Ante-post Bet for Every Country Challenge, I hope people find it to be interesting and useful in some way, whether that be through making you aware of markets you didn't know existed, whether you agree and will back them or want to take me on and think I need help given some of my bets, either way I just hope you get something positive from it and of course I hope people join in.

You are welcome to take the full challenge if you want or just simply share your views about certain aspects. :win:
[/quote]

It was so helpful - thank you very much!!

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby tbuckley » Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:31 am

cheers for your comments Nowl12 and I'm delighted you enjoyed it and found it useful as that is always the motivation behind the work I do on here.

Of course there are other top class contributions within this thread and once again I thanks those that have joined in, it's greatly appreciated and I hope more do join before the world cup.

Then while the World Cup is one we can discuss how our predictions have worked out :win:
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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby toadie21 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:17 am

I won’t go through every team but a quick look at each group

Group A
Uruguay are a solid team, good at the back and an envious strike force of Suárez and Cavani. I’d have them to win the group. As for 2nd I’m split, I don’t really like Russia but they have the home advantage. Their isn’t much difference with the teams under Uruguay and a moment of genius could be the difference and Salah of Egypt could drag them out of the group.
Bet Uruguay 10/11 to win group A

Group B
Portugal won the Euros and have Ronaldo in their so are s threat in any game. But I’v already backed Spain to win the World Cup. A strong team with plenty of tournament experience. Strong at the back with De Gea in the net and they just seem to have unlimited resources of talent.
Bet Spain 6/1 to win World Cup

Group C
France are another team who seem to have enough quality players for 2 squads. But the standout player for me is Griezmann who had an amazing Euros. Denmark impressed me with their playoff win over Ireland and can qualify to the knockout stages.
Bet Griezmann 14/1 top scorer

Group D
I really like the Croatia team who have a strong midfield with Real Madrid pair Modric and Kovacic. Iceland are a team that can upset the odds and are capable of a shock and I wouldn’t be surprised if they qualified through the group. Argentina scraped through to the finals and are a team in not sure about and I can see them underperforming. However as mentioned before in a cagey game a moment of magic will be the difference and Messi is a magician.
Bet Croatia 7/4 to win group D

Group E

Brazil have the quality to win this group and it’s going to be interesting to see who come out of this group with them. I’m at a crossroads between Serbia and Switzerland and theirs not much between them but Serbia have the better deal on the fixtures with playing Brazil last. If Brazil are through they may rotate and Serbia could steal that all important point.
Bet Brazil 1st Serbia 2nd 2/1 straight forecast

Group F

Germany look the team to beat in this group and again its more of a case of who’ll join them. Sweden got to the World Cup with a tough campaign with France and Holland in their group and the beating Italy in the playoff and that’s enough to sway me.
Bet Sweden 5/4 to qualify from group F

Group G

I’ll let you form your own opinion about England but the should have enough to get past Tunisia and Panama. Belgium has some quality players but that Wales game is still a strong memory and is why I can’t trust them to win this tournament.
Bet Belgium 5/6 to win group F

Group H

Colombia stood out at the last World Cup playing some great football but that was a South American World Cup and they maybe a little overrated this time round. Poland topped their group above Denmark and have a good chance in a competitive group. Senegal interest me and with Liverpool’s Mane they could be that African dark horse.
Bet Mane 11/4 Senegal’s top scorer

That’s each group done.
Keep up the good work, I’v enjoyed this thread and look forward to more great advice.
UTR mentioned the group forecast and this is going to be a bet I will be having in as my World Cup face spitter.

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby SarojSharma » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:42 pm

Group D

In my opinion Argentina are going to have a tough group outing. It won't be as easy as it seems for them on the paper. Nigeria for me is the bottom rock team in this failing to win any of their three matches. Among the rest three any two could proceed to the knock out stage. I won't be shocked much if Argentina do not make it to next round. Goal difference could be a decider in this group.

Views above are my personal , not based on any stats or record. I believe it's not the stats that matter while predicting.

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby tbuckley » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:15 pm

Cheers Toadie for a top contribution and good luck with your bets :win:

Thanks Sarohsharma, great to see that this thread has encouraged new people to join in.

Thanks to everybody who has got involved and keep all the top thoughts coming, see if you can get your friends to join in the challenge :win:
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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby campbell64 » Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:41 pm

Top Work mate and opened my eyes to a multitude of markets I was totally oblivious too. Thank You for your efforts and hard work

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby tbuckley » Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:29 pm

Top Work mate and opened my eyes to a multitude of markets I was totally oblivious too. Thank You for your efforts and hard work
Cheers for that & I'm delighted the thread has given you ideas and markets to consider, there are so many ways to find a bet that suits you and your budget, of course I must say that this thread is very much a joint discussion and combined effort with everybody who has taken the time to get involved. :win:
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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby nawoo » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:34 pm

Odds from bet365

Group A

Russia
Apart from South Africa in 2010, hosts of World cup do tend to at least progress to the next stage but unfortunately for Russia I think they are likely to join the South Africans in that list. They have been poor in preparations winning only one of three matches at Confederations Cup last year v New Zealand and since then have won only one in 7 friendlies against South Korea and are without a win in last six which includes draw against Iran.
Stage of Elimination: Group Stage @ 3.00

Saudi Arabia
Their best performances at World Cup came in their debut in 1994 and have struggled since then at the finals. They did manage to beat a ten men Greek side 2-0 and scored against Italy in a 2-1 loss and lost by same score against Germany in which they had a late penalty call denied. That should give some confidence to the players.
They are favourites to finish bottom but as stated above the hosts have not been impressive in the build up and the pressure on the opening day might be too much for them so their opener against Russia gives the Saudis a getting something from their stay here.
Russia v Saudi Arabia: Half Time Result – Draw @ 2.25

Uruguay
In Luis Suarez they have a world class striker and he has already scored twice in their last 3 friendlies both of which were through penalties and coming up against Saudis & Russians not looking impressive, Uruguay are likely to top their group and give Suarez chance of playing more and he should be able to score some.
Luis Suarez - Over 2.5 goals @ 2

Egypt
I am not impressed with Russia and though Saudi Arabia have not lost to North African sides at finalsI expect that to change with Mo Salah having had a great season; I expect him to lead the Pharaohs to the next round.
Group Qualification @ 2.50 Yes

Group B

Spain
They look likely winners of the group with their opening match against Portugal likely to be a tough one. I can’t seem to find a decent bet for them so had to go through their goalscorers and Costa at odds of 3 doesn’t entice but I expect Aspas @ 7 looks decent he has been improving with each season in La Liga with Celta and was the top Spanish scorer with 22 and has already scored in one of Spain’s 5 friendlies since qualification. He also scored late winner against Tunisia. (Had to add this to my draft)
Top Goalscorer: Aspas @ 7

Portugal
They won Euro 2016 in unimpressive fashion and have not impressed in friendlies as well. They have failed to beat USA, Holland, gave away 2 goal lead to draw with Tunisia and needed 2 injury time goals to beat Egypt, so that doesn’t look rosy going to a World Cup. Spain should be able to beat them in the opening match which should boost the confidence of the other sides in group, Iran & Morocco.
Portugal – not to qualify @ 4.33

Iran
They impressed in their opening 2 matches in Brazil, drawing 0-0 with Nigeria and losing to a last minute goal by Messi to Argentina. They mostly play friendly against Asian & African sides and in the 3 against outside sides, they have managed to beat Panama and drew with Russia late last year and lost to Turkey in their last match.
Since ’98 they have met African sides twice and drawn both, as stated against Nigeria in Brazil & in Germany 06 against Angola, so they will fancy a good result against Morocco in the opening match and I do expect them to try and get a point from the other two games especially against Portugal by playing defensively.
Team Group Points : 2-3 inclusive @ 3.2

Morocco
They look likely to give a both their neighbours Spai & Portugal a run for their money and I have a strong feeling thay can beat the Portuguese. However, my bet is on goalscorer and on Younes Belhanda having scored in both their recent wins over Slovakia & Estonia and I expect him to be the topscorer of his side.
Top Goalscorer : Younes Belhanda @ 11

Group C

France

They have strong side and are rightly one of the favourites and with the likes of Griezmann, Giroud, Mbappe should have no problems topping their group. My bet again is on goalscorer and Griezmann who has been impressive both at Atletico and at Euro 2016 where he was topscorer with 6 goals and looks likely to topscore for his side again.
Top Goalscorer: Griezmann @ 2.5

Denmark
Even though they have Eriksen who has been in good form for Spurs, Denmark have failed to impress with goalless draws in friendlies with Chile & Sweden and defeat to Jordan and a single goal win over Panama. I just can’t see them getting out of the group.
Stage of Elimination: Group Stage @ 2.1

Australia
In 2006 they scored 5 in the group; 2 against Croatia & 3 against Japan.
In 2010 they scored 3; 1 against Ghana and 2 against Serbia
In 2014 they scored 3: 1 against Chile & 2 against Dutch
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2 as mentioned b whatarethechances, looks appealing.

Peru
They beat Brazil in Copa America 2016, drew away in Argentina in the qualifiers and finished above Chile and have already beaten Croatia, Iceland, Saudi Arabia and drawn with Sweden in friendlies. I see them as main threat if there is any to France in the group.
Qualify @ 2.62

Group D
Argentina

I am not impressed with Argentina, they struggled in the qualifiers and almost failed. Too much reliance on Messi
Not to qualify @ 5.5

Croatia
With the likes of Modric, Rakitic,Tadic & Perisic, I expect them to top the group – 3.25

Iceland
They did well at Euro 2016 and to qualify for their first ever finals and I do expect them to be able to score a few of their own with their main star, Sigurdsson leading and expect him to be their topscorer
Top Goalscorer : Sigurdsson@ 4

Nigeria
They have been able to beat Argentina in friendlies but at the finals on 4 occasions they have lost but as Argentina are relying on Messi too much, I expect Nigeria to get their act right this time and emulate their 2014 performance.
Qualify @ 3.25

Group E
Brazil
One of the favourites and everyone knows why. My bet – top South American side @ 2

Costa Rica
Did well in 2014 but are now a shadow of that side and have been dismal. Finish bottom @ 1.66

Switzerland & Serbia
Their H2H meeting might decide who might go through as I feel they are more balanced with the Swiss just being more better defensively set up.
Either can go through but slightly in favour of Swiss – to qualify @ 2 & Serbia Not to qualify @ 1.66

Group F
Germany
One of the favourites and defending champions. They have had a bumpy ride in friendlies winning just once in five which includes a loss to Austria after leading and managing to hold on for a unconvincing 2-1 win over Saudi.
They are my team and I expect them to win outright at 5.5 and they normally do score plenty at the finals 16 in Brazil 2014, 16 in South Africa in 2010, 14 in 2006
Highest scoring team @ 6

Sweden
They were in same group as France in the qualifiers and did manage to beat them at home and also finished ahead of the Dutch and then knocked out Italy in the play offs. They deserve respect and their match against Mexico should most probably decide who goes through along with Germany. They play well as a unit and I do expect some goals from Berg & Toivonen.
Over 3.5 @ 2 appeals to me.

Mexico
Reached second round at every finals since 1994
The bookies are slightly favouring them to finish 2nd ahead of Sweden but colder nights in Russia might suit the Scandinavians more – so I expect their hopes for a 7th straight 2nd round appearance to take a knock.
Stage of Elimination – Group Stage @ 1.83

South Korea
Most likely to struggle against all three but are capable of pulling off a shock. 1.72 to finish bottom looks good one but I expect them to score a couple at least and having had good season with Spurs, I expect Heung Son Min to topscore @ 3.75

Group G
Belgium
Do have a strong squad and are in great form and expect them to win the group @ 1.83

Panama
Not much known about them. Preparations have not been good with 2wins in 8 friendlies since qualifying with both wins coming against fellow CONCACAF sides, Trinidad & Grenada. Losses to Iran, Norway, Denmark and a 6-0 thumping from Swiss do not augur well.
To finish bottom - @ 1.5

England
Their group doesn’t look that tough on paper but they didn’t make it past the group stage in 2014 and in 2010 they could only manage draws against Algeria & USA before being hammered 4-1 by Germany in 2nd round.
Can’t decide much on them but under 7.5 goals @ 1.8 looks decnt as dont think they will progress much

Tunisia
They have had good results in friendlies, beating Costa Rica, Iran, drawing with Portugal 2-2 in which they came from 2 goals down and lost narrowly to Spain to a late Aspas goal.
England failed to beat Algeria in 2010 and the Carthage Eagles might fancy having a go against the English and I expect them to go cause a surprise and go past the group stage.
Qualify – Yes @ 5.

Group H
Poland
Though they are favourites to win the group, I think the other sides all look well capable of causing surprises, so will just look at goalscorers. Lewadownski is the main striker and he has been in good form and should be able to topscore for the Poles
Topscorer : Lewadownski @1.61

Colombia
Reached quarters in 2014 but their form has dipped since then. They failed to win in their last 5 qualifiers. Their win over France in March the only good result with draws against Australia & Egypt and loss to South Korea not helping in building confidence.
Not to Qualify @ 3

Senegal
Surprised the world in their debut by reaching quarters in 2002 but have failed to win any of 4 qualifiers which included draws against Uzbekistan & Luxembourg but in Mane they have good striker and can be a match winner and can be the dark horses and having beaten Korea in their final friendly match should boost their confidence.
To Qualify @ 2.25


Japan
They can be tricky opponents and have in the previous finals beaten the likes of Denmark, Cameroon and even held Belgium. On their day they can give any top side a run for their money but the other 3 sides have the likes of Lwendowski, Mane & Falcao in their sides and the only goodbet I can find is for Japan to finish bottom of the group at 2.5

Good Luck! :win: :wink:

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby tbuckley » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:57 pm

Great work Nawoo, absolutely fantastic contribution and all the best with your bets. :win:

I know I've said it a few times but it honestly does mean a great deal that people have taken the time to get involved in this, thanks a lot & keep it going!!!
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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby mc1000 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:19 am

Hi Tommy as you know unfortunately I will not have the time to complete the full challenge due to other commitments but I could not let a cracking thread such as this go without sticking my two penneth in. :lol: As you know I cannot resist a long shot so thought I would trawl through each group for an ante post double figure selection in the hope that if at least one of them comes in I will at least keep the shirt on my back. :oops:
All prices are taken from bet-365 just to keep it simple.

Group A @ 12-1 I will go for Eygpt to win the group with Uruguay to finish second as I believe after an easy opening win Russia may find the pressure of being the host nation too much and be the surprise early casualty in what apart from Saudia Arabia looks a tight group.

Group B @ 16-1 I will take a punt on El Kaabi to score two or more goals in there opening match against Iran. El Kaabi was in glorious form in the African Nations Championship scoring 9 goals and has come under the radar of a few clubs therefore a good performance here could be a career changer. (for my sins I have taken the 100-1 on El Kaabi to hit three or more in the game).

Group C @ 12-1 Anton Griezman to be the highest tournament goalscorer overall this is a tournamant bet but I needed one or two to keep the interest going and is the best bet I could see in the group.

Group D @ 10-1 Iceland to get out of the group and reach the Quarter Finals if they get out of the group they will likely play France but Iceland have become very difficult to beat will be well supported and are a much improved team in recent years.

Group E @ 50-1 (x2) This is a tactical bet on either Mitrovic or Shaqiri being the tournament's leading Premiership goalscorer I am banking on one of the teams getting through the group stages and as both are 50-1 they represent a decent shout under the circumstances.

Group F @ 33-1 Sweden to be the tournaments lowest goalscorers they lost there mojo in front of goal in 2017 are in a difficult group and at that price may be worth a little tickle.

Group G @ 10-1 I will go for 0-0 in the England v Belgium game as I believe both teams will be play a tactical game.

Group H @ 11-1 I will go for Senegal to win the group and Columbia to finish second this is an exceptionalyl tight group and if Japan are the ones to crack first Poland are always a little hit and miss.

I know the bets are a little off the wall but unfortunately that is just the way I roll. Once again Tommy a really nice peice of work (as usual) and nice to see a few people supporting the thread. :D

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby CapnBob » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:10 am

whatarethechances said:
I've had another look at Group A and still can't find anything I like. So I'll make just one more ante-post pick and then I'm done.

Group with Least Goals - Group G @ 10.0

4 of the 6 games in this Group will likely feature one team defending for their lives whilst the other huffs and puffs trying to break them down. England v Belgium looks to me to have 1-1 or 0-0 written all over it so it then just depends how Tunisia and Panama get on against each other. This Group would be one of my favourites in this market so to see it priced as the rank outsider just reeks of value to me.
Browsing the odds at the back of the Racing Post WC preview, this group is expected to be the highest scoring. Frankly, I find this strange and agree with you.

Firstly, the group contains a team from CONCAF. I am going to pick Panama as Lowest Goal-Scorers (6-1, bet365). The RP preview provided information on the last three World Cups (page 69). A CONCAF team has featured as lowest goal-scorers: Trinidad & Tobago, 0 (2006), Honduras, 0 & 1 respectively (2010 & 2014). Algeria (2010) failed to score in 2010 but were in a tight, difficult group & Cameroon & Iran netted a goal in 2014. Panama are the only qualifiers to finish with a negative differential, admittedly only one (9:10).

Saudi Arabia are among the other teams expected to finish as lowest scorers. However, they face Egypt in a game which has the elements of a derby. The Arabia peninsula may separate them but language does not. In 2006, the Saudis drew 2-2 with another North African team, Tunisia. Iran are the other team who might fail to score though the game against Morocco is basically a knock out tie in itself in a group containing Spain & Portugal.

Secondly, England have featured in two of the three lowest scoring groups according to the stats provided on the last three WC tournaments (2006 & 2014). On both occasions, each group featured a team from CONCAF, Trinidad & Tobago ('06) & Costa Rica ('14). England were in the second lowest scoring group in 2010 (9). Interestingly, the lowest scoring group featured a CONCAF team, Honduras, Group H (8 goals)

Thirdly, browsing the defensive records of the teams in England's group, they read as Tunisia conceded 4 in 6 games, Belgium 6 in (10), England 3 in (10) & Panama 10 in (10), meaning 23 goals in 36 games (0.64 a game). Group G may have been picked as the highest scoring because of Belgium netting 43 in qualifying. However, 23 were in the three games against Gibraltar, home & away, and home to Estonia.

Worryingly, Belgium thrashed Costa Rica in a friendly (4-1). However, CONCAF teams defend resolutely, with the emphasis on strong tackling, & Hazard went off injured. Panama are likely to defend deep and be difficult to break down. They are unlikely to offer much in attack, their squad is one of the oldest, at least 10 players over 30, meaning they lack pace so you'd expect them to be compact. To have qualified is an achievement in itself for them.

England & Belgium meet in the final group game. You'd expect a cagey contest between two teams who probably respect each other & know each others' game. The winners face the runners-up from Group G which could be Colombia, Senegal or Poland, difficult opponents but there isn't an emphasis to avoid one of the elite.

Of course, trends are there to be bucked, however, Group F fulfills two criteria: it has England in it & a CONCAF team often determines matters. Unfortunately, bet365 appear to have withdrawn their option for Lowest Scoring Group, Group G priced at 20-1 in the preview. Browsing oddschecker, most bookmakers appear to have withdrawn prices for Lowest Scoring Group. Group G is still being priced at 10-1 by Betfred.
Last edited by CapnBob on Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: World Cup 2018, Russia - An Ante-post bet for Every Country Challenge - join in!!!

Postby CapnBob » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:41 am

Other observations from the preview. Uruguay as dark horses, not sure. In their Conmebol campaign, their record at home, 7W 1D 1L, 2W 3D 4L less impressive away though they did draw at Brazil & Argentina.

Colombia who qualified in 4th, did not beat any of the teams above them.

Belgium, time to deliver? It should be remembered that they lost at the 2016 Euros to Italy. When did they last beat an elite nation team?

If I had to pick a dark horse, perhaps Serbia. Russia could exit early, the hosts will get behind other teams but as said before, this World Cup is as close to a home one for the Serbs (Slavic, Orthodox). Can Milinkovic-Savic live up to the hype? Perhaps not. Their veteran defence & lack of options up front a concern. But if they can edge Switzerland out, they could face Germany who they beat in the 2010 World Cup despite finishing bottom of their group with a game against the likes of Colombia/England in the QF. Serbia to reach the SF: 18-1 Hills, 20-1 b365.

Of course, it means beating the Germans, perhaps unlikely, but the Germans have gone out to Balkan opposition in 1994 (Bulgaria) & 1998 (Croatia) though their team was much more limited during this period.

It is highly unlikely. Last three World Cup, Quarters & SFs

2014: QF: all group winners....SF: all group winners
2010: QF: 7 group winners/1 RU....SF: all group winners
2006: QF: 6 group winners/2 RU (Ukraine, France)........SF: 3 group winners, 1 RU

Interestingly, though, two teams who finished as group runners-up to Brazil in 1994 & 2002, ended up meeting them again in the SF, Sweden & Turkey respectively. Admittedly, the Serbs have a much harder course (Germany, Last 16), should they even negotiate the group itself.
............................................

Some great tips from everyone else, I like the one about the Moroccan player getting a brace against Iran.
Last edited by CapnBob on Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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