Quarter Final Betting Strategy Discussion

BOOSTER16
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Quarter Final Betting Strategy Discussion

Postby BOOSTER16 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:11 am

Am now 67p down on the world cup, was 4pound 97 up after Uruguay bet England and Costa Rica beat Italy. have been done 90 minute underdog doubles during my bad run.

So what is the best strategy for Quarter Finals
1 Number of goals under or over 2.5 goals
2 Is it best to back 90 minute favourites, draws or underdogs?
3 Extra Time bets eg just a bet on each game to go to extra time?
4 Anytime goal scorer bets?

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Postby BOOSTER16 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:23 am

70pound29 up on all bets this year is a plus, but I can never seem to get the hang of football betting. Keep falling into the trap of thinking teams at good odds as in above 2 to1 are good bets. have looked at stats for football betting and teams at 6to4 or less would lose far less than teams above 6to4.

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Postby nors » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:07 am

Booster16, you say "i can never seem to get hang of football betting"

I am sure lots of OLBG members can assist

My take on it would be that many members will be betting on the World Cup and many have done well, but there is no hard and fast reason why you or anyone needs to bet on all the World Cup games unless they spot opportunities via the prices or take a particular view on a game. Aldershot v Ebbsfleet in September may be a better choice.

We do have more info on the W/C so that does help, most games we have been able to watch, we have gleaned a lot of info so those factors are all in our favour but i am not sure that all 4 games are equally good betting opportunities?

Can we agree on which game offers the best opportunity and as importantly which game offers the worst opportunity?

If you rank the games in what you think offer the best opportunitys you may find 5 bets on 1 game, 2 on another, 1 on another and none on the final game.

If you are disciplined with your match selection that would be a good starting point.
:win:

How are other members going to approach the quarter finals after what they have watched and learnt so far?

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:24 am

My initial thoughts are;

Brazil v Colombia

Colombia are a huge price to get through the quarter finals at 2/1. This match I would price as close enough a coin toss, with home advantage the only real thing that Brazil have going for them.

Netherlands v Costa Rica

Looks a very one sided match up. Costa Rica might have a chance playing the way they have in this tournament up to now if it weren't for the fact that they were dead on their feet at the end of the Greece match (played for a long time with 10 men, etc).

Germany v France

Anyone's guess? Germany weren't convincing against Algeria and did appear to be opened up far too easily. France seem to be having one or two problems with their selections... Benzema must start centrally and Giroud must start on the bench! Close.

Argentina v Belgium

After a start which did nothing to convince me that I was wrong to dismiss this Belgian team as a flash in the pan, they were magnificent against USA linking up properly for the first time. Argentina were dire. Upset on the cards? You always feel that Argentina have more gears to go through, but they couldn't turn it on against Switzerland when they needed to really?

:?
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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:29 am

Holland are 1/4 best priced to qualify for the semi. My tissue says 1/7... just saying...
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Postby inplayking » Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:59 am

This is now the time the big teams start to perform and I really don\'t understand the thought that Columbia will be a difficult opponent for favourites Brazil, yes they have entertained but they have played Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan and Uruguay without Suarez. None of those teams could be said to have much of an attacking threat but Brazil is a different story, with Neymar in the mood he is and possibly Fred and Hulk to occupy defenders thoughts Brazil to me are a stand out bet and with generally 5/6 available i may put all my efefforts into this one match for this round.

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:06 am

:lol:

And Brazil have beaten Cameroon, Croatia (luckily) and drawn with Chile and Mexico... don't understand your point about Colombia's results????
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Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:13 am

I quite like, well i do look out for Underdogs best value first.. :yes:
Then look see if any games will go to extra time..

France v Germany
Agree this one will be very close,and go to extra time..
Germany 14/1 in extra time,be one for me..

Brazil v Columbia
Feel this one can to normal time,
Columbia 7/2 in 90 minutes value for me
Columbia been playing well, and have bet them to
win World Cup, still good price to..

Argentina V Belguim
I quite like Belguim, playing great football, agree they were superb
against USA.
Great value 11/4 in 90 minutes
Argentina feel don t rate them, Switzerland was unlucky against
them.

Netherlands V Costa Rica
Think this one will be a tight one to call :yes: ..
Netherlands score lots goals, great paternership they have
with Robben and Van Persie,and other s they have to can score goals..
Costa Rica ok they had hard game against Greece, in extra time,
i sill feel they can give Nertherlands a hard game.
Feel this could go to extra time.

Am undecided what to do on this great match, a tough one to call.
So just focus on the other games i have selected..

Gone very quickly, wow qf all ready...
Plus some great games to.... :)

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Postby pokerslut » Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:36 am

My feeling on the World Cup so far is probably that of utter confusion, especially when it comes to most of the teams that are left.
Theres a feeling that some of these teams can step it up a gear but will they. Is the heat to blame for these below par performances.

If Argentina were going to step it up surely we would have seen them spark against the Swiss, they were dead on their feet until that burst of energy with which they scored.Saying that I hope they can as I have them pre W.C. in the outright.

For me the French look strong and controlled and 2/1 looks good against an unusually lactuster Germany. I think they will successfully exploit the Germans where Algeria fell short.

Belgium looked very good against USA and were unlucky not to wrap in up in normal time. However its probably a game I wont get involved in. (V Arg)

Also I think Costa Rica look exciting and 13/2 looks too big, especially the way the games are panning out.

As for Brazil v Colombia, I\'ll also avoid this one. Prob slightly favour Brazil. More room to improve.

Anyway they\'re my thoughts. Good luck with this tricky bunch.

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Postby arniehi » Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:56 pm

I fancy Colombia, France, Holland and Belgium to go progress.

Colombia have two of the best attacking players so far this tournament - the top goal scorer in James Rodriguez and Cuadrado who's racked up the most assists. Their transition play, pace on the break, and the fact that other attacking players (Quintero, Ibarbo, Martinez, Bacca, Teo Gutierrez and Ramos) all offer different options is really impressive. Their front line strikers haven't really performed that well so far and could do with taking some pressure off their two midfielders, but they also provide a threat from set pieces and full backs who create a lot of space going forward.

Brazil won't have Luis Gustavo, and that'll be a huge miss. Paulinho may come back into their side which will force Fernandinho to play a more defensive role. I don't really get how he's not suspended, too, but either way his nature could see him in card trouble early and he tends to lack the positional discipline. Gustavo has made the most interceptions this tournament and Colombia's link up play has been superb - the way they spread the ball is exceptional and you can see how effective by watching their second goal against Uruguay.

Costa Rica will undoubtedly be tired after their game against Greece. Joel Campbell could barely stand when he was taking his penalty, and Duarte will be a huge miss. Navas has been one of the standout players for them and Ruiz has been fantastic, too. I just think they'll come unstuck against this Dutch team who, although had to expend a lot of energy in incredible heat against Mexico, look to have too much for them.

France's midfield trio can catch Germany out. If Lahm plays a central holding role again Germany don't have the balance they need. They'll be playing 4 centre backs across the back 4 again and the likes of Griezmann, who's impressed massively, and Benzema will be able to seize upon that. The way they dismantled the Swiss makeshift defence after early injury was scary and they can certainly do something similar against Germany. Neuer was instrumental in the extra time victory against Algeria but the French have more pace and more trickery when it comes to getting in behind, while their trio in midfield of Pogba, Cabaye and Matuidi is one of the strongest in the tournament.

Argentina have looked so bereft of ideas at times it's incredible considering their attacking talent. I expected them to coast their group and score bucketloads, despite the fact Iran were always going to sit back. Their scoring record in qualifying was exception but it hasn't worked out in the competition, as they struggled to win all their games by 1 goal (and the latest after a late extra time winner). If Drmic had anywhere near the composure he showed in the German league last season Argentina would have been eliminated by Switzerland, and I think Belgium's defence will stifle them while their midfield out-battles them. Lukaku finally looked energised after coming on as a late substitute, though he was playing against a tired and, frankly, poor defensive setup in the USA who had no protection from their midfield. Still, I don't think Argentina will deal with Belgium and expect a tight game that Belgium will take, be it after extra time or penalties if needs be.

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:01 pm

I put this on one of the other threads as well, but here is most generally relevant.

Does anyone have any stats for the performance of teams in their next game after going to extra time only a few days previously?

A lot has been made of the conditions out in Brazil, but given that Argentina (for example) played 120 minutes in blazing afternoon sun will that be even worse for their recovery time than evening fixtures?

:?

Edit: well, I've just done a little bit of research and in the last 7 World Cups, 27 teams have played extra time/penalties and then gone on to play another match in the tournament.

4 of those teams played each other. Forget them.

Of the remaining 23 teams, only 7 ended up going through in the next round. 16 lost.

Coincidence? Is it simply that weaker teams go to extra time/penalties?

Could be.
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Last six world cup stats

Postby BOOSTER16 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:38 pm

Over and under 2.5 goal matches 12 of each
Both teams to score yes 11 no 13
Over 3.5 goals 5 matches under 1.5 goals 10 matches
Games that went to at least extra time 9 matches
games that went to penalties 7 matches

So profitability wise
Under 1.5 goals
Game to go to extra time
Game to go to penalties
These shown above could work well.

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