World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

nors
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World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:04 am

With friendlies being played this week it would be great if members could add any interesting snipetts from these friendlies that may help us make good betting decisions ahead of and during the World Cup.

Sweden 1 v Chile 2
Mexico v Iceland3 : 0
Peru Croatia 2 : 0
Curacao v Bolivia 1 : 1
Russia v Brazil 0 : 3
Denmark v Panama 1 : 0
France v Colombia 2 : 3
Argentina v Italy 2 : 0
Germany Spain 1 : 1
Netherlands v England 0 : 1
Poland v Nigeria 0 : 1
Portugal v Egypt 2 : 1
Scotland v Costa Rica 0 : 1
Serbia v Morocco 1 : 2
Ukraine v Saudi Arabia 1 : 1

Were there any players that members saw who stood out?

We saw England play a different formation, did members notice any other formation changes from countries?

Which countries do we think were shocked/impressed by their countrys performance?

Were there any significant injurys/players missing?

If we can be ready ahead of the 1st games to make decent bets then we should all have a profitable World Cup.

If you have not posted before and just lurked then please do add helpful World Cup information on this thread.

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:08 pm

The most competitive groups of 8 i feel is this one, with Senegal a possible qualifier at the price. Need more info on the Colombians. However this group should offer some betting opportunities. Colombia are the longest price group favs.

Colombia (6/4), Poland (15/8), Senegal (5), Japan (17/2)

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nawoo » Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:44 pm

Nigeria to qualify at 3.25 (bet365) looks good given they have already beaten Argentina whom they face in the groups & beat Poland in last friendly.

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:54 pm

Good stuff Nawoo, i can see this group being hard fought, there are no poor teams in this group, the Argentinians will need Messi to perform.

Group D Outrights
Argentina (8/11), Croatia (3), Nigeria (11), Iceland (16)

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby Micko70 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:15 pm

I am seriously thinking of doing a rolling acca over the 15 days of the group matches.

Starting on day 1 with Russia, and backing 1 nation each day just to score 1 goal.

What i want to know from OLBG members, is whether to pick them all out prior to the World Cup or should i wait and do them daily??

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:07 pm

I am seriously thinking of doing a rolling acca over the 15 days of the group matches.

Starting on day 1 with Russia, and backing 1 nation each day just to score 1 goal.

What i want to know from OLBG members, is whether to pick them all out prior to the World Cup or should i wait and do them daily??
I would probably make a provisional list of all 15 prior to the tournament but have substitutes ready to replace teams that have already qualified and don't need to win as they may rest players.

On the other hand, that is a lot of extra work if Russia fail to score in their opening match. :P
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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:46 am

Any work undertaken to know the teams, players, style, formations etc ahead of the World Cup should pay dividends. So maybe set up a provisional list that can be amended as you go along.

Tonight we get another chance to see many of the qualifiers in action.

Russia v France
Denmark v Chile
Germany v Brazil
England v Italy

The odds compilers for the bookies will be watching, we should do the same.

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:03 pm

Did anyone see the Russia v France game? Were Russia poor and France decent?

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby Epic » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:17 am

A few thoughts about every team.

Group A

Russia - the hosts have done well in recent World Cups, at least in terms of qualifying from the group, I don't think the Russians will have much trouble either. They have a favorable fixtures list as well, with Uruguay being the last opponent. Looking at their results over the last 12 months, backing over 2.5 should be a safe bet every time. They have a great goal-getter in Smolov but struggle to defend against the better sides.

Saudia Arabia - the 2002 World Cup was the first one, which I followed in-depth and I remember the Saudis getting embarrassed with an 8-0 loss to Germany, looking like an amateur side compared to their opponents. They tend to be at the World Cup quite often, but seemingly are there to just make up the numbers, so backing various handicaps against them should be profitable.

Egypt - the Pharoes sure looked impressive in a recent friendly against Portugal, but that was before the European champs got hammered 3-0 by the Dutch in the next game. They, of course, have some Premier League players, and they could score in every game thanks to the brilliance of Mo Salah, but overall, they lack the quality to make much noise in the tournament. At least in my eyes. Much better side compared to the Saudis though.

Uruguay - got a lot of mixed feeling about them. They have a good group of players, with some world-class quality, but they struggled through most of the qualifiers and I remember them looking very poor at the Copa America Centenario with Suarez injured. Cavani is a top-top striker as well, but they need creativity from the midfield to feed their big guns and I just don't see that special quality there that will get them far. They might not even win the group.

Group B

Portugal - the triumph at the Euros was a great achievement, but Ronaldo & Co enjoyed a lot of luck on their way to the trophy with multiple wins coming after regulation time and they haven't done anything special after the tournament. Judging by their performances two years ago, they should be an unders machine.

Spain - the Spaniards have had some great results since the start of 2017, beating France, Italy, Argentina - albeit a Messi-less one -- with ease, while drawing with Germany in a match which they dominated. Looks like they are over the mini-crisis they had after two unsuccessful finals. A top-three favorite in my eyes, so there's some value backing them, as most bookies have them at the fourth spot.

Morocco - they haven't been at the WC since 1998, so there's certainly more quality in the squad now than it was previously, but still not enough to cause any shocks. They recently beat Serbia, which was a decent result, but Spain and Portugal are much better sides. However, their defenders, lead by Medhi Benatia and Achraf Hakimi, play at a very good level, so I don't think they will be completely overrun. Just narrow wins by Spain and Portugal in my eyes.

Iran - don't expect anyone to easily walk past the Iranians either. On paper, they are one of the weakest sides at the tournament, as most of the squad comes from the local league, but Carlos Queiroz is a shrewd tactician and he'll make sure the team and the nation won't get embarrassed. In fact, they posted a WC qualifiers record with 12 straight clean sheets. They already did reasonably well at the last tournament, managing a goalless draw against Nigeria and Argentina needed an injury time Messi winner to get the three points, so they'll be a headache for everyone and I think can easily finish above Morocco.

Group C

France - don't think much needs to be written here. They got close to a big win at the Euros and are one of the highest rated favorites to take the crown. Lot of goals since the unlucky defeat at home to Portugal, so overs and BTTS look like the bets to target.

Australia - the Aussies even struggled in the qualifiers, needing a playoff with Honduras to get through, so I don't think they have much joy at the tournament. Matt Ryan should help keep the scores close though.

Peru - they have just easily taken care of Croatia and Iceland in a pair of friendlies, so will this be the year that Peru finally makes a big breakthrough and solidifies its place among the best South American sides? They haven't been at the World Cup since 1982 but have done well at a number of Copa Americas. They lost just two of the last 12 qualifiers, drawing with Argentina twice in the process. The squad doesn't really look the strongest, but they could play better as a team compared to other sides from COMNEBOL. A potential surprise qualifier from the group stage. Massive game right from the off against Denmark.

Denmark - Christian Eriksen has developed into a world-class playmaker and there's quality throughout the squad, but Denmark always seems to disappoint during the finals. They got outplayed by Japan at the last WC and they have qualified just once from the group stage in last four Euro appearances.

Group D

Argentina - they are always among the favorites when a big tournament comes around, but they haven't even won a continental title since 1993. The national team always seems like a mess. It started with the banning of long hair, at the 1998 WC if I remember correctly, then there was the 2002 superteam, which failed to progress from the group stage, and there have been a bunch of other issues as well, the bizarre Diego Maradona reign being one of them. Now there's talk of leaving Icardi and Dybala off the squad. They just never seem to get it right.

Iceland - the Euros were great and they certainly can make some noise this time around as well, but they won't have the surprise factor anymore and will find it tougher. A great BTTS machine though, if the Euros are anything to go by.

Croatia - lots of individual talent, not much teamwork. Great value to finish bottom of the group. Have picked up just eight points in the last three WC's combined.

Nigeria - got through to the Round of 16 at the last tournament, but had a pretty favorable group. Some great individual talent, like the African sides always tend to have, but they also always tend to lack quality from the tactical side. Have won just one game in the last three WC's combined.

Group E

Brazil - great group stage team, not so much in the latter stages. Went to the third-place playoff the last time around, but were lucky not to have been dropped in the first knockout stage by Chile, winning a penalty shootout. Neymar injured and unknown how fit will he be come June. Another disappointment on the horizon.

Switzerland - good enough to make it past the group stage, but only to fall at the next hurdle. Had eight clean sheets in the qualifiers, so a solid but not an exciting team.

Costa Rica - had a great run at the last tournament and can rely on a world-class goalkeeper, so there's some potential of making it out of the group against all odds. Recent games against better quality opposition have been ugly though.

Serbia - the Serbs won the U20 World Cup a few years ago, so they have a great group of players coming up, but this tournament comes too soon for most of them. Rarely seem to do well at the finals, with the lack of temperament and discipline among the reasons. Some good value backing them to finish last in the group.

Group F

Germany - the biggest favorite for the tournament. Enough said. Always there or thereabouts and even Neuer's injury won't stop them, as they have enough quality to replace him if needed.

Mexico - has had shambolic endings to multiple recent big tournaments. Manager Juan Carlos Osorio is a hardworking and a very clever tactician but tends to overthink at times. Look for them to make a bright start to the tournament, but they'll fade away quickly, as the performances on the pitch can differ from game to game like day and night. Have qualified from the group six times in a row and seem like a good bet at over even odds.

Sweden - no Zlatan no party.

South Korea - play well as a team, but don't have enough game-winners in the squad. Already struggled in the qualifiers, being especially poor at the back. Could pip Sweden in the group though.

Group G

Belgium - is it finally their year? It could be. The core is now at a good age and they already had a nice run at the last tournament, getting knocked out by Argentina in the quarters by only a narrow 1-0 defeat. However, they were also surprised by Wales two years later at the same stage, so I guess we can say that the lack of experience is still there. Also interesting to note that they haven't played any of the top sides since 2016. It's like they are afraid of playing them and possibly getting taught a lesson. Will dominate the group stage, but still a few doubts if they can be successful in the knockout stages.

England - pretty much the same story as it is with Belgium. I think the Three Lions have plenty of exciting players, but they are unproven at this stage, which makes it hard to back them to have a long run. Also, who's going to be the no. 1 goalkeeper? It's vital to have a solid GK if you want to be successful at a major tournament and with only a couple of months to go, it's yet unknown who gets the nod from Southgate. Hart has only just recently reclaimed his spot at West Ham, Forster seems to have no chance of doing that at Southampton and Butland is about to get relegated. Pickford has done alright, but in my opinion, worse than he did last year for a much poorer team. Nick Pope has been really impressive but is he on his way to the bench at Burnley with Heaton returning? At least there's plenty to talk about, as it is with England every time.

Panama - it's a miracle that they even qualified for the tournament, so there's not much to talk about. A team with multiple players, who are getting close to 40 and have well over 100 caps for the country. Nice story but not much quality. Sure-fire bottom finisher.

Tunisia - they have recently beaten both Costa Rica and Iran, which shows some quality. Far from an impressive squad, but unlike the Westen African sides, the teams from the northern part like Tunisia, Egypt and Morroco do have tactical discipline and that helps them cover for the lack of individual talent. Could be able to frustrate Belgium and England with both games ending up as low-scoring ones.

Group H

Poland - have the best centre-forward in the game and almost went to the semis two years ago. Very tough to play against on their day, but could also disappoint easily. Tend to be involved in a lot of high-scoring games with both teams scoring most of the time, so could be one of the most fun sides to watch at the tournament.

Senegal - they always have a decent-looking squad, but rarely seem to meet expectations. Haven't been at the World Cup since 2002 and haven't even had a deep run in the continental championship for over 10 years. However, they could be on to something this time around. They have plenty of defenders playing in top leagues, Kouyate and Gueye to shield the back-four and Mane with Sow up front to bang in the goals. Manager Aliou Cisse was part of the 2002 squad, so he knows how to be successful among the best teams in the world. Definitely worth to keep an eye on.

Colombia - were very impressive four years ago, but haven't done much since then, as James seems to have hit a hurdle in his development. Falcao has regained his form at Monaco, but looking at recent results, they don't score many goals and look overrated in the group, which is wide-open really.

Japan - they don't have as good a squad as they've had at previous tournaments, but they should still be competitive. Vital to get off to a good start against Colombia. Play a tight game, but could be carved open by talented individuals. Will likely finish last in the group, but I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow squeezed through.
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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:46 am

Excellent preview Epic, here are the countries currently above 11/1. Can we see any of them making the Semi Finals? England are 6/1 with Betfair, never has a country been so underpriced.

From this group i think we should look at the best tactical managers, those who can motivate the players and have a game plan when taking on the favourites.

Portugal 12
Uruguay 12
Colombia 12
Croatia 14
Russia 14
Poland 16
Mexico 40
Switzerland 25
Denmark 25
Sweden 50
Serbia 50
Senegal 50
Japan 100
Nigeria 66
Egypt 50
Peru 80
Iceland 66
Morocco 150
South Korea 200
Australia 125
Costa Rica 150
Iran 150
Tunisia 200
Panama 250
Saudi Arabia 250

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby nors » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:11 am

I am going to back many of the 3rd favs and some of the 4th favs pre tournament on the spreads, and get a profit at the end of the group stages. Because of the prices i probably only need 2 to qualify.

BTW we should all look at the order of the games, because some times you have the favs meeting in game 1 Spain v Portugal or game 3 England v Belgium. Same with the outsiders Panama v Tunisia.

Some countries will have to win their last game and some countries will want to win their last game, some may just need to avoid defeat, the approach will be different.

There should be a load of in group and in match play options.

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Re: World Cup Betting Discussion - Russia 2018

Postby meoldmate » Sun May 13, 2018 11:02 am

Here is my view of the World Cup

Group A

Could be a surprise package with Egypt and Uruguay qualifying, as I cannot see Russia doing well even though they are the host, their team seems to struggle to come together in these events.

Egypt have something about them, that can see them qualify for the next round, along with Uruguay like most South American countries play slick football and they could be a dark nation of the tournament.

Saudi Arabia could be found wanting and propping up the league in fourth place.



Group B

Spain and Portugal can prove the strongest from this group, with the possibility of Spain leading the way and Portugal in second place.

Group C

France can dominate this group and should take maximum points, second place could go to Denmark but Australia and Peru could have more to say for the second place.

Group D

We always expect Nigeria to come good but they do not pack the goods required to see through a tournament of this nature. Argentina will be a force along with Croatia and Iceland packing in with their strengths.

Group E

Brazil look to hold all the aces in this group with Switzerland taking second place, with Costa Rica and Serbia warranting respect but may falter at the wrong time for a qualification position for the next round.

Group F

Germany will take some beating and another who should collect all the points from this group matches. South Korea will run their hearts out and Mexico will do the same and may have more to offer than first thought. Sweden can be hot and cold and may be vulnerable to teams like South Korea and Mexico.

Germany a certainty (I know nothing is a certainty but they are good) possibly Mexico for second place.

Group G

Belgium have gifted players but they sometimes do not come together, so I am hoping to see England taking this group with Belgium in second place, with Panama and Tunisia making the numbers up.

Group H

Poland can show the way along with Columbia as Japan along with Senegal posting performances that can win a point also but not qualifying for the knock out stages.



Group A

1st Egypt
2nd Uruguay

Group B

1st Spain
2nd Portugal

Group C

1st France
2nd Denmark

Group D

1st Argentina
2nd Croatia

Group E

1st Brazil
2ndSwitzerland

Group F

1st Germany
2nd Mexico

Group G

1st England
2nd Belgium

Group H

1st Poland
2nd Columbia

The knock out stages

Winners of Group C France v Runners up Group D Croatia
Winners of Group A Egypt v Runners up of Group B Portugal
Winners of Group B Spain v Runners up Group A Uruguay
Winners of Group D Argentina v Runners up of Group C Denmark
Winners of Group E Brazil v Runners up Group F Mexico
Winners of Group G England v Runners up of Group H Columbia
Winners of Group F Germany v Runners up of Group E Switzerland
Winners of Group H Poland v Runners up of Group G Belgium

Last eight
The winners of France v Croatia will play either Egypt v Portugal
France v Portugal
The winners of Spain v Uruguay will play either Argentina v Denmark
Spain v Argentina
The winners of Brazil v Mexico will play either England v Columbia
Brazil v England
The winners of Germany v Switzerland will play either Poland v Belgium
Germany v Belgium

Semi Finals

The winners of France v Portugal will play either Spain v Argentina
France v Argentina
The winners of Brazil v England will play either Germany v Switzerland
Brazil v Germany

The Final
France v Germany

Winners

GERMANY
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