Ice Hockey Discussion & Selections September 2015

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Ice Hockey Discussion & Selections September 2015

Postby Zipster » Thu Sep 24, 2015 11:54 am

Couple of bets that I fancy over in Sweden this evening......

Vita Hasten Norrkoping v Asploven HC (HockeyAllsvenskan - 18:00)

Looking at the league numbers, for the last 25 games when the home side have been priced 2.30-2.40 in this league, the away side has only gone on to win 3 of those games in the 60 minutes so that is a 88% chance of a home/draw outcome in this match. Then you look at the head-2-head record, from 12 matches the team playing away from home has not won a single game in regulation so looking at anything bar an away win in regulation time here.

Double Chance (Home/Draw) is best priced 1.50 with SkyBet whilst the Draw No Bet is available at 1.75 with Betfair, so the question is which one to go with, obviously you win with a draw on DC but I am going to go with Draw No Bet and if it is a draw then you stake is refunded, I am happier with the better odds.

Based on that from those numbers above, the 25 games mentioned 13 have been home wins and 9 draws and in the head-2-head 8 have been home wins and 4 have been draws.

Draw No Bet - Home Win at 1.75 with Betfair

Djurgardens Stockholm IF v Brynas Gavle IF (SHL - 18:00)

Another game in which I shall be taking the Draw No Bet route, looking a Djurgardens when at home between the odds of 2.10-2.20 and over the past 25 games you would have only lost a Draw No Bet on them 3 times, 14 would have been successful and 8 would have seen the stake refunded so that is a non-loss strike rate of 88% and combine that with Brynas' record when away from home and priced 3.00-3.50 in which backing the home side in the Draw No Bet market, you would have only lost 5 bets with 14 wins and 6 with the stake funded which is a 80% non-loss strike rate.

88% and 80% non-loss strike rates is good enough for me, the hosts also have a decent H2H record when at home too with only 4 defeats in their last 25 games, 12 winners and 9 Pushes.

Draw No Bet - Home Win at 1.66 with Betfair

I shall also double up the two picks with Betfair at 2.90.

Good Luck All :hope:
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Postby Zipster » Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:29 am

Vita Hasten had no problems in their match yesterday with them running out 3-0 winners whilst two Vesterholm goals put Djurgardens 2-0 and despite Hogstrom getting one back late in the 2nd period, they were not able to find an equaliser and ended up losing 2-1.

Lulea HF Vs Skelleftea AIK (SHL - 18:00)

I shall be sticking with the Draw No Bet market today and will once again be going home win in Sweden in a match where both teams have won once and lost once so far this season.

Skelleftea opened the season with a 3-2 win over HV71 but have since lost on the road to both Djurgardens and also Kosice in the Champions League. Lulea opened their season with a win at Vaxjo before being well beaten at home by Frolunda but went to Farjestads in the Champions League on Tuesday and picked up a good 3-0 win.

The league numbers say a Home/Draw outcome is not likely with the following numbers:
  1. 80.00% (12-8-5) When Home Team in the SHL Within Odds 2.30-2.40
    76.00% (15-4-6) When Away Team in the SHL Within Odds 2.70-2.80
    76.00% (13-6-6) When Home - Away Odds Difference in the SHL of -0.40 to -0.30
The numbers include number of home wins, number of pushes and number of losses so they are strongly in favour of opposing the away side here today.

Draw No Bet - Home Win at 1.83 with Titan Bet
Last edited by Zipster on Sat Sep 26, 2015 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Zipster » Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:31 pm

Couple of shortish pick on Saturday, both in Sweden once again.

Asploven HC Vs AIK Stockholm IF (HockeyAllsvenskan - 15:00)

The head-2-head statistics don't exactly shine on this bet but I am willing to overlook those, once again we are going for a Home Win in the Draw No Bet market and looking at the league statistics it looks to have a good chance, when the home side is -1.10 to -1.00 shorter than the opponents from the last 25 bets, they have only gone on to lose 4 of those games, 14 have ended in a successful bet with 7 ending with your stake returned. Interestingly Asploven have not drawn any of their last 18 games when priced 2.00-2.10, they have all ended in regulation with 12 of those being successful.

Frolunda Goteborg Vs Farjestad Karlstad BK (SHL- 17:30)

A change of markets! I am looking at the alternative Under/Over market for this one and I shall be going with Under 5.5 goals. When the hosts have been priced up between 2.00-2.10 they have had 20 games in their last 25 where this bet would have landed and when playing sides priced 3.00-3.50 from the last 25, a total of 23 of those have ended in Under 5.5 goals and add to that both the league and head-2-head stats which both back up this bet.

The odds are short on both of these bets, between 1.40-1.54 so I shall be doubling them up for a better price and Titan Bet offer 2.23.

Asploven HC Vs AIK Stockholm IF - Draw No Bet Home Win
Frolunda Goteborg Vs Farjestad Karlstad BK - Over 5.5 Goals
Double at 2.23 with Titan Bet


Saturday Long-Shot (SHL 17:30): Orebro HK v Rogle Angelholm BK - DRAW NO BET - AWAY WIN at 3.25 (Titan Bet)
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Postby Zipster » Sun Sep 27, 2015 2:32 pm

Sunday 27th September

Cardiff Devils Vs Fife Flyers (British Elite League - 18:00)

The last 25 games in the league where the host have been priced between 1.60-1.70 have resulted in 20 of those finishing in Under 6.5 goals so that is an 80% strike rate, the two sides have met 17 times overall with a total of 14 of those ending in under 6.5 goals (82%) and when they have met in Cardiff 8 of the 9 games have ended in under 6.5 goals. Cardiff have only played 5 games at home between the odds of 1.60-1.70 but 4 of those have ended in under 6.5 goals. Cardiff's opening game at home produced 8 goals whilst Fife's opening game on the road produced 5 goals so goals could come in this game but I believe that we will not see more than 6 so under 6.5 is my bet here.

Under 6.5 Goals at 1.75 with BWin
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