NHL 2014/15

Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Chicago Blackhawks
7
23%
Boston Bruins
0
No votes
Los Angeles Kings
2
6%
Pittsburgh Penguins
5
16%
St. Louis Blues
2
6%
Anaheim Ducks
4
13%
New York Rangers
7
23%
Montreal Canadiens
0
No votes
San Jose Sharks
0
No votes
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
6%
Other
2
6%
 
Total votes: 31
surfsup
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Postby surfsup » Thu May 14, 2015 10:40 am

All good Epic mate.

My point is if you go back and check the bookies odds on each of the Hawks and Ducks playoff games so far.

The Ducks have been favorites in nearly all of them. Whereas Chicago has not. Which is a good indication of the tougher opposition. And hence my superior form in the playoffs comment. Chicago has only lost 2 playoff games.

I do think they are a better than 50-50 chance that the bookies think and thats why I like them. Its gambling though, anything can happen.
Goodluck guys.

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Postby AJayy77 » Fri May 15, 2015 9:51 pm

Tampa Bay Lightning have owned the New York Rangers in 2014-15. Yet as a biased Rangers fan I see the blueshirts finding a way to beat them in this series, despite the FACT that Bishop has beaten Lundqvist the last 4 matches. How does everyone else see this series going?

And how is your Ice Hockey comment rating? Better than mine @ 2.2%?

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Postby Epic » Sat May 16, 2015 1:38 am

And how is your Ice Hockey comment rating? Better than mine @ 2.2%?
I'm at 4.9% for last 6 months.

I'm going with Lightning in the Eastern final. Though, I'm biased as well lol. Think it comes down to offense and the Bolts have been better in front of goal.
If you can't beat them, join them. When will the bookies join OLBG?

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Postby AJayy77 » Sat May 16, 2015 8:59 am

Eastern Conference Final Game 1 is on at an excellent time for most in the UK except for me who will just be starting a night shift as the game faces off. This has not prevented me from looking into the game and I have produced the following tip based on my findings:
TB Lightning @ NY Rangers 50 Win TB Lightning (Money Line) 2.15 bet365
"The Lightning are the underdog here despite having won the last 4 head to head meetings, all 4 of these wins were Bishop over Lundqvist and outscored the Rangers 17-8 in that period. The Rangers lost their first home game of the Capitals series and Tampa started hot jumping out to a 3-0 lead over the Habs. Tampa are value here."
In addition to the above, anyone questioning the road form of Tampa Bay should look at how they have performed at Madison Square Garden (Won last 3) and in this year's playoffs (2 wins, 1 loss in Montreal; 2 wins, 1 loss in Detroit). The Bolts are facing their third Original Six opponent in as many rounds, so the intimidation factor should be something they are used to. In both series they have played, their first road win came in overtime while their second was by 3+ goals. Knowing this, and the fact that the Rangers have had a single-goal margin in their last 14 straight playoff games (and 19 of their last 21 postseason outings) it makes a further bet very attractive:
TB Lightning @ NY Rangers 50 Win TB Lightning +1.5 (Puck Line) 1.37 bet365
"The New York Rangers have had a single goal margin in each of their last 14 playoff games stretching back to June 11th 2014 in the Stanley Cup Final Game 4 against the LA Kings. Tampa Bay Lightning have gained their first road win in each playoff series this season by a single goal margin in overtime. Both goalies are in top form and both teams quarter and semi final game 1 was a single goal game. Thus I expect this game will be decided by 1 goal."
I hope that you have found my analysis useful and if you did, please cruise over to the OLBG Free NHL Picks page and click YES to help me get my rating up. Of course, as a Rangers fan I hope that I am wrong and New York win the game but I tip based on what the stats, trends and form show and not what my heart says. Good luck everybody!

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Postby undertherobe » Sat May 16, 2015 9:08 am

@epic given your knack of predicting the series winner of all 12 matchups so far I'm tempted to just back Tampa Bay but unfortunately at this stage of the season, heart rules over head and it's Rangers all the way for me.

As for tonight, I won't be watching. It's the wife's birthday this weekend and we went out last year whilst the Rangers smashed the Habs 7-2 in game one so I'm going nowhere near a tv tonight in the hope that superstition prevails :D

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Postby AJayy77 » Sun May 17, 2015 12:48 pm

Big win for the Rangers last night, it felt odd watching and thinking "hey don't ruin my tip, New York" but since my favourite team won I guess I can let those 50 credits go (and £1 at bet365) and be happy that the Bolts prevailed on the puck line tip.

So onto today, the action begins in the West where teams who have had differing paths to the final meet to decide their Stanley Cup final reps. The Ducks had to fly through two Canadian teams in the fraction-final rounds and vanquished Winnipeg and Calgary with style. Some people have questioned the quality of these teams relative to the absolute contenders but I maintain that any team can only beat those put in front of them and the Ducks have been simply too strong for their opponents to date.

The Chicago Blackhawks have had a much tougher path on paper, ploughing through the mid-western teams of Nashville and Minnesota, looking very good needing only 4 games to eliminate the Wild in the last round. A goalie change, offense when required and maybe previous playoff success has carried the Hawks to the conference finals again. They begin the underdog against the Ducks, which on current form is probably fair BUT as you will see in my tip, this game is not that straightforward.
20:05 CHI Blackhawks @ ANA Ducks 50 Win CHI Blackhawks (Money Line) 2.15 bet365
"The Blackhawks have won the last 3 meetings in Anaheim, including the two this season. They dropped the home game but discount that as that was John Gibson beating Scott Darling. Today the goalies should be Andersen v Crawford and Corey C has the win both meetings this season, both times 4-1. Maybe not that wide margin today, but trends show that the Blackhawks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings."
I have become a big believer in the theory that in some sports you have to lose one in order to win one; this seems especially true in the North American Sports where success is normally achieved only following a long and arduous, televised road to the trophy. It is because of this that I doubt the Ducks have been "burned by the fire" whilst there is no doubt that the Blackhawks with Cups in 2010 and 2013 and conference finals the two years since have the experience required to know how to get this job done. I'm picking the Hawks to win this series and the Ducks to come back smarter next year.

If you get chance, head over to OLBG Free NHL Picks page and click like on any tips that are useful to you. I'm heading over there right now, see you there. Good luck everybody!

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Postby AJayy77 » Mon May 18, 2015 1:50 pm

Taking last nights game in isolation, the Ducks are the real deal and the Blackhawks should be worried. Anaheim found a way to cancel out the star power on each team, leaving the depth of the third and fourth lines to carve out the victory. Perhaps the Hawks could look to shake up the line combinations to combat this, but that is obviously not my call.

What is my call is the Eastern Conference Final Game 2 tonight in NYC as the Tampa Bay Lightning look to avenge their 2-1 loss in Game 1 to the New York Rangers. Here are my picks for tonight:
01:05 TB Lightning @ NY Rangers 50 Win TB Lightning (Money Line) 2.2 bet365
"Going on Game 1, I expect the Rangers to win. But looking at trends suggests otherwise. New York has failed to take a 2-0 lead in previous series this year despite home advantage each time. Tampa Bay were not beaten in consecutive road games in a series this year. The Lightning owned the regular season series with the Rangers, and I expect the Bolts to strike tonight."
01:05 TB Lightning @ NY Rangers 50 Win TB Lightning +1.5 (Puck Line) 1.37 bet365
"The New York Rangers have had a single goal margin in each of their last 15 playoff games stretching back to June 11th 2014 in the Stanley Cup Final Game 4 against the LA Kings. Tampa Bay Lightning have gained their first road win in each playoff series this season by a single goal margin in overtime. Game 1 was settled 2-1 to New York and the trend continues. Thus I expect this game will be decided by 1 goal."
Yes I have once again chosen the Bolts to beat the Rangers on both lines; as I described above, the Rangers have failed to hold home advantage in the previous rounds and to me, with the ridiculously long streak of one-goal games, the puck line is a no-brainer.

So watch the Rangers ramp up the offence tonight and leave my LSP in tatters. I'd also look at the Under, although for some reason I don't want to touch that at the moment. Please be sure to visit the OLBG Free NHL Picks page and click like on any tips you find to be well written and useful. I always head over there even though I've made my picks, because if you can give a persuasive argument in your tip that differs from mine, well I'm gonna like yours even if I don't agree with it. Good luck everybody!

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Postby undertherobe » Mon May 18, 2015 9:25 pm

The bookies have gone fishing by setting the total at 4.5 and after thinking all day that there's no way this game can go overs, I've bitten and gone for the over 4.5.

Having gone back and looked at the regular season matchups, the Bolts steamrolled the Blueshirts with some explosive offense and they've got to find a way to do that tonight if they don't want to fall into a 2-0 hole and I think we may see some early goals tonight.

Also taken Tampa +1.5. Every Rangers game this postseason has been settled by a single goal. Why not try and ride the streak?

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Postby AJayy77 » Mon May 18, 2015 9:52 pm

The bookies have gone fishing by setting the total at 4.5 and after thinking all day that there's no way this game can go overs, I've bitten and gone for the over 4.5.

Having gone back and looked at the regular season matchups, the Bolts steamrolled the Blueshirts with some explosive offense and they've got to find a way to do that tonight if they don't want to fall into a 2-0 hole and I think we may see some early goals tonight.

Also taken Tampa +1.5. Every Rangers game this postseason has been settled by a single goal. Why not try and ride the streak?
I'd say that given 10 of the Rangers 13 playoff games and 5 of the Lightning's last 8 playoff games have had <3.5 goals, the bookies are not taking that much of a risk.

However, since the start of the Montreal series, the Bolts have had a sequence of 2-1, over (6-2), 2-1, over (6-2), 2-1, push (4-1), 2-1. So that trend suggests tonight will NOT be 2-1 and there are more goals out there. Further, the Rangers are enjoying a diminishing trend of under, over, under x4, push, under x3, over, under x2 (current), which suggests they will go over or push tonight.

So, if you believe in a sequence all signs point to over 4.5 goals tonight, in which case you have found a decent bet, 'robe. Best of luck with that one.

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Postby AJayy77 » Mon May 18, 2015 10:06 pm

Breaking News...

I thought about it and posted this tip:
TB Lightning @ NY Rangers Under 4.5 (Game Totals) 50 Win bet365 @ 2.1
"Forget the trends, the streaks, sequences and superstition and you are left with two simple numbers, which are playoff Goals Against Average for the starting netminders. These are as follows: Henrik Lundqvist 1.56; Ben Bishop 1.82. The maths are simple, a combined 3.38 GAA leaves headroom UNDER the 4.5 goal total."
So I guess the greater than evens on the under were too tempting for me here. There goes the LSP; good luck everyone!

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Postby undertherobe » Tue May 19, 2015 7:37 am

Last night went south for the Rangers. Just couldn't match the intensity of Tampa.

Fascinating game 3 & 4 now with the best road team in the regular season at the best home team in the regular season.

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Postby AJayy77 » Tue May 19, 2015 8:01 am

Last night went south for the Rangers. Just couldn't match the intensity of Tampa.

Fascinating game 3 & 4 now with the best road team in the regular season at the best home team in the regular season.
I watched until the mid point of period 2 and then went to bed. The Rangers need to get those skate blades ground as if you lose an edge on a 5-on-3 powerplay you give up a short-handed goal. For me, New York didn't do what it does best and get the puck in behind the net to create offense.

So the sequence in this series is 2-1, 6-2. If the trend plays out it will repeat and so I guess we look for a 2-1 result in game 3?

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