MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Kapica89
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Re: MLB - Predictions and news 2017

Postby Kapica89 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:40 pm

Atlanta Braves (Teheran) - San Francisco Giants (Moore)

Pick 3: Atlanta Braves ML
Bookmaker: bet365
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 3u

I think for Giants this season is over, they are abysmal whole season with current record 26-46, their main problem is that they aren't consistant, they have good batters, but somehow they struggled to score runs, usualy they made streak of two hits on two outs, or they make base hit and that fall into double play, all in all, awful offensive game and at the moment Giants and Padres batting orders are two worst in MLB, while Giants pitching rotation is far from reliable. Main reason for struggling in pitching part is absence of Bumgarner (he made just 4 starts this season) also notable missing is Strickland in bullpen (over 30 stats and 26 innings he has just 2.08 ERA). Giants are currently on seven games losing streak (five of them on road), while in last 20 games they have record 4-16.

I thought Braves will struggling with production since Freeman and Garcia are out, but Adams replaced Freeman excellent and he is main reason why Braves continue to produce on offense. Braves are on three games winning streak at home and they won five of last seven games. At home whole season bad run is following by good run and than again bad run, and than everything again in circle. However Braves are at the right place right now and after 9-0 win last night, I believe their confidance is sky high.

Braves will start Teheran tonight. His start of the season was one of the worst in his career but looks like now he started to turn things around. In his last two home starts he allowed just two runs. Overall so far his numbers isn't that great, 6-4 record with 4.86 ERA over 14 starts. On road he is amazing, 5-0 record and 2.89 ERA over 7 starts, his main problem were starts at home, before last two, however so far at home he has 1-4 record and 7.25 ERA, reason for this is probably new ball park, which is smaller than previous one, and that's why he allowed 10 home runs over just 7 starts, now when he used to new ball park we should see much better outings from him at home.

Giants will start Moore tonight. He has 2-7 record with 6.00 ERA over 14 starts and he allowed 12 home runs so far (for small ballpark like Braves have now that is huge thing because I think Adams and Kemp can produce home runs tonight. Moor on road is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, 0-4 record with 9.24 ERA over 8 starts while opponents batting average .364 against him and his WHIP on road is one of the highes in majors, 2.11. His numbers in night games are also awful, 0-5 record with 8.77 ERA over 8 starts and batting average of .355 against him.

Moore so far didn't pitched against Braves, but Markakis has 3 for 13 against him, while Flowers is 0 for 6 and Suzuki is 0 for 3, still he didn't faced batters like Adams, Kemp, Phillips, Santana, Swanson etc. On other side few Giants batters have huge success against Teheran so far and I am afraid of that tonight, Belt is 7 for 12 with 2 home runs (both were solo home runs), Posey is 7 for 13 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI and Span is 13 for 32 with home run and 2 RBI. Clearly even when Teheran allowed Belt, Posey and Span to hit against him that wasn't with runners in scoring position or simply when bases was empty, and with that Braves can live. Most important thing for Braves tonight will be to produce on offensive end, and since Moore allowed 12 home runs so far on road, I will not be surprised if we see 3-4 home runs on Braves side tonight.

Pinnacle offering Braves -1, but bet365 doesn't and we will stick with bet365 odds, because bet365 is approved by OLBG site, so we will go with Braves ML (money line) here at 1.83, or if someone looking for better odds, you should try Braves -1.5 at 2.70 in that case lower your stakes.

Bisto6
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Re: MLB - Predictions and news 2017

Postby Bisto6 » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:41 am

Yankees shortest fav of the night and have now lost 7 on the bounce and playing with no confidence.Too much info can distract you from the obvious

Kapica89
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Re: MLB - Predictions and news 2017

Postby Kapica89 » Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:18 pm

Stats:

Wins: 0
Void: 1
Lost: 2

Overall: -6.00u

Chicago Cubs (Butler) - San Diego Padres (Diaz)

Pick 4: Over 10.5 runs
Bookmaker: bet365
Odds: 2.20
Stake: 3u

Pick 5: Over 1.5 runs in first inning
Bookmaker: bet365
Odds: 2.60
Stake: 1u



Cubs are on solid run recently, three wins in a row, two of them came at home against Padres in this series. At home after really bad streak of four losses in arow they finally found momentum and get back on right track. Interesting thing is that before this winning streak and before losing streak which I talked about, Cubs were on amazing run of eight straight wins at home, so in last fiften games at home Cubs have record 11-4. Also in seven on these last 15 games at home Cubs scored at least 5 runs.

Padres on road have nine losses in last eleven games, while currently they are on three games losing streak. Their production on road is abysmal whole year, but from time to time they showed something on offensive end. Two times in last five games they were able to score at least five runs. but also in last three games they were able to score just three runs overall (last night they finished the game scoreless).

Cubs will start Butler today. He started in seven games so far with record 3-2 and 4.41 ERA, while his opponents batting .227 against him. At home he has slightly better record than on road, while at home he is allowing more hits and opponents batting average against him is higher at home than on road .235. Also so far he allowed just one home run in four starts at home.

Padres will start reliever today. He made 21 appearances from bullpen and just two starts. So far he has record 1-1 with 7.36 ERA and opponents batting average .265 against him. Also over 29.1 innings overall he allowed 7 home runs and 17 walks. As I said, as starter he showed in two games so far, both starts he finished without decision, over 5.1 innings he allowed 6 hits, 4 runs and 2 rhome runs with 6.75 ERA.

Cubs batters so far didn't faced Diaz, but I doubt they will have any troubles against him to score. Cubs batting orders will start with two best batters, Rizzo and Bryant, on that way Cubs want to tag Diaz with as many runs as possible. On other side Padres batting order already faced Butler, and so far they had success, Hedges is 1 for 2 with home run and 2 RBIs, Solarte is 3 for 6, Cordero is 1 for 2, Spangenberg is 1 for 2, Renfore is 1 for 3 and Myers is 2 for 8. I think Padres should be able to produce some runs tonight against Butler. On other side Cubs should have easier job tonight against Diaz and we should see more relievers include in rotation.

As I said, Padres should be able to score at least 4 runs against Butler and Cubs bullpen tonight, on other side Cubs should be able to score at least 3-4 runs against Diaz, plus few more against rest of the bullpen. And because Cubs will face reliever from start with Rizzo and Bryant on first two places in batting order, I think Cubs have legitimate chance to score in first inning as well.

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Re: MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Postby undertherobe » Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:41 pm

The Orioles have given up 5 runs or more in 17 straight games and Marathon Bet go 7/10 that they do so again tonight.

All streaks must come to an end, but I'm not sure Kevin Gausman is the man to do it

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Re: MLB - Predictions and news 2017

Postby undertherobe » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:26 pm

Hi guys, 200 words in tip comments is too small amount of words for baseball picks where we have so many numbers
What are other members view on this? As Kapica89 says, baseball is full of numbers. If I wanted to know which pitcher has the most wins on a Thursday (there are 14 of them) or which pitcher allows the most walks with a full count (Wade Miley) then it's just a few clicks away. But is all this too much information and can it cloud our judgement? How do we separate which information can help inform a betting selection and which information is purely for the stat geeks or is more suited to someone wiling to sit in front of a computer/tv and bet in-play with every pitch?

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Re: MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Postby undertherobe » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:08 pm

The Orioles gave up 5 more runs last night to make it 18 straight games. Wade Miley gets the start today and he's given up at least 4 runs in 5 of his last 7 starts and the Orioles have given up at least 5 runs in 7 of his last 8 starts.

Cleveland over 4.5 runs is 8/13 (William Hill)

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Re: MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Postby Bisto6 » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:14 pm

What works for me is current form,as teams do seem to have winning/losing runs eg Cleveland had been very average but have really stepped it up were they have won 7 of their last 8 games.

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Re: MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Postby undertherobe » Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:42 pm

The Orioles gave up 15 runs last night and it's now 20 straight games they've done so. Will it come to an end tonight? Dylan Bundy has a 6.64 ERA in 4 June starts so Im going with the 4/5 at Marathon Bet that the run continues

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Re: MLB Analysis, Picks & Discussion 2017

Postby undertherobe » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:44 pm

The LA Dodgers have now gone 43-7 in their last 50 games, just the 3rd team in the last 117 years to win at least 43 games in a 50 game span. The other 2, the 1906 Cubs & 1912 Giants both went onto lost the World Series. The Dodgers are currently 3/1 to win the World Series, and 11/8 to win the National League

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