NBA 2015-2016

jakobva
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Winner

Postby jakobva » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:37 pm

Cleveland is going to win this year led by the best trio in the NBA, LeBron, K-Love and Kyrie.
They will beat either the Golden State, LA Clippers or Oklahoma in the finals.

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Re: Winner

Postby undertherobe » Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:43 pm

Cleveland is going to win this year led by the best trio in the NBA, LeBron, K-Love and Kyrie.
They will beat either the Golden State, LA Clippers or Oklahoma in the finals.
Welcome to olbg jakobva. Cleveland certainly have a great chance of winning the East but I'm opposing them tonight at home to Utah.

I really like what the Jazz have done defensively so far and the Cavs have hardly beaten the best the NBA has to offer with none of their wins coming against a team with more than 4 wins.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah win this one but I've taken the +6 for a bit of security

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Postby undertherobe » Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:18 pm

This was posted by member titans choice on the Golden State vs Brooklyn game:-

There is very little doubt if any that Golden State Warriors will win this match up against a Brooklyn Nets team that are not playing well and have a record of one win and eight losses.Golden State are playing well and are ten wins and are unbeaten and the reigning most valuable player Stephen Curry is playing better then he has ever done.The problem is the only real betting option in this game is for the point spread which is seventeen points head start to Brooklyn and i would be very tempted to go with Brooklyn. Because if i was the coach of Golden State i would see this as a ideal opportunity to at least cut Stephen Curry time on the court tonight if not rest him completely.Even if he does play his normal amount of time tonight Brooklyn has only got beaten by more then seventeen points once this year and that was the second game of the year against the San Antonio Spurs when they lost by a massive twenty seven points.And Brooklyn have done better in there last two games beating Houston and only losing to the Sacramento Kings by just two points.And Bojan Bogdanovic has been shooting well in the last three games so i think the seventeen points head start might be too big even for Golden State to make up.

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Postby undertherobe » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:55 pm

How's the early part of the season gone? Is anyone surprised that Golden State are the last unbeaten team and Philadelphia the last winless team?

The 76ers are 37-137 since the start of 13/14. Yikes :shock:

Has anyone surprised members so far?

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Postby titans choice » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:19 am

The biggest disappointment has to be the Houston Rockets and the results seem to depend on how star player James Harden plays as he is averaging 38.5 points per game when they win but when they lose it drops to 21.7.But it's a team game and you just cant expect Harden to win every game for you and it's not just Harden doing all the turnovers which is bad but is very poor away from home with 18.5 per game on average.The most improved have to be the New York Knicks after getting just seventeen wins last season and already five this season they look sure to at least improve on last year.They rely heavily on Camelo Anthony for the scoring and Robin Lopez has done ok since joining but a big factor in the improvement is rookie and big prospect for the future Kristaps Porzingis.And he reminds me a lot of Shawn Bradley and i think he has a very bright future and the Knicks might give Toronto some competition for the Atlantic division.

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Postby lecceseadublino » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:54 pm

CELTICS - ROCKETS

Boston is 2nd in Atlantic division: I watched last game and I loved my Celtics pushing hard in attack (5th out of 30!) but which ranking also very well in defensive efficiency (4th). After having demolished OKC 100-85 I go with Boston on the spread

IND Pacers @ CHI Bulls
IND Pacers +6.5 (Pointspread)
Both teams are ranked in the top ten in defence. Chicago Bulls are looking good at home (4.1) but Indiana not looking that bad AWAY (2-2); probably prediction is Bulls to win but fall short against the spread.
[/b]

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Postby PremierLeague » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:40 pm

Atlanta at home to Sacremento this evening has a line of -3.5, which is too short. Ive managed to get 2.04 but odds are already in to 1.96. Reason why I am playing Atlanta -3.5 is I have then down as a 71.67% chance of covering this spread so this is cracking value.

I tend to be someone who plays my own stats also and this will be only the 2nd time I have played Atlanta this season in the spreads. I played them at a line of 5 against Washington where they covered convincingly, winning by 15.

This also comes under another strong category of bets that I have, super bets, and currently 4 from 4 this term so far.

I also grade my bets from grade A to F and numerically from 1 to 5. A1 would be the top bet with F5 being the weakest. This rank as a C1 for me which is actually the highest any bet has reached so far this season , although I am only 50/50 on the other two that met this criteria, although they were not super bets, just bets.

All in all, cracking value.

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Postby botev1921 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:58 pm

Atlanta at home to Sacremento this evening has a line of -3.5, which is too short. Ive managed to get 2.04 but odds are already in to 1.96. Reason why I am playing Atlanta -3.5 is I have then down as a 71.67% chance of covering this spread so this is cracking value.

I tend to be someone who plays my own stats also and this will be only the 2nd time I have played Atlanta this season in the spreads. I played them at a line of 5 against Washington where they covered convincingly, winning by 15.

This also comes under another strong category of bets that I have, super bets, and currently 4 from 4 this term so far.

I also grade my bets from grade A to F and numerically from 1 to 5. A1 would be the top bet with F5 being the weakest. This rank as a C1 for me which is actually the highest any bet has reached so far this season , although I am only 50/50 on the other two that met this criteria, although they were not super bets, just bets.

All in all, cracking value.
Interesting indeed given they have serious injury issues with Teague questionable & Bazemore out. Could you maybe share how you come to these percentages, cause surely a team on a back-to-back that just lost to one win Nets 24 hours ago does not inspire much confidence in me.

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Postby undertherobe » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:17 pm

Welcome to olbg PremierLeague. Like botev has said, it would be nice if you could give us some insight as to how you've come to your conclusion.

Since a player's meeting last week after falling to 1-7, the Kings have won three straight so are in good enough form to cause the Hawks some problems here despite their awful recent record against Atlanta

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Postby botev1921 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:30 pm

With the news of Teague officially out, the line moves to -2 on Hawks and the original -3.5 is now @ 2.20. I have to take Kings ML here as they have pretty much everybody available with Collison also back from injury to support Rondo.

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Postby botev1921 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:22 am

Well done on the Hawks, but please share your system, it would be really helpful to us all. :win:

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Postby PremierLeague » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:44 am

Well done on the Hawks, but please share your system, it would be really helpful to us all. :win:
There is no system, its just basic math, and only correct one bet. :)

With regards to how I calculate % of covering the spread. Obviously, you first need to have handicapped the game to a level of points prediction,power ratings, or spread prediction etc. How you do that is up to you. You then need to calculate a standard deviation, you can do this at team level, division, all level etc, again, entirely up to you.

Its then just an excel formula of

NORMDIST(x, mean, sigma, true)

Convert the result to a percentage and it will tell you the percentage chance of covering that spread. Obviously the better you are at producing you ratings, power ratings, spreads etc to begin are of up most relevance. That said though, you dont need to be accurate that much as you just play the boundaries that you know work. e.g I might only play where the % is calculated as >= 70 so that it gives me a margin of error in my calculation.

You are never going to be accurate in your predictions all the time, hence why you play the boundaries and provide yourself with a buffer zone for error in calculation. It is impossible to predict sports betting correctly to a high strike rate for all games when the outcome is 50/50, but you can put yourself in the best possible position to make better selections, or should I say eliminate the poorer selections.

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