NBA 2015-2016

curleybet
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Postby curleybet » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:44 pm

my tips
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 2.000
Chicago Bulls -3.5 1.909 pinnacle
I think Chicago will not have problems to cover the hp

ciao leccese italiano pure tu? :)

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Postby PremierLeague » Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:50 pm

There is a bet that I consider absolutely cracking value this evening, so I am going to sell some extra spread points and take the larger price.

Indiana Pacers v Atlanta Hawks

I have the line down at 6 in Atlanta's favour and I see the line is actually set at 2.

I have played Indiana twice this season against Southeast teams. I had them as 7pt favs vs Orlando, line was set at 5.5, covered 13. I had them as 9pt favs vs Miami, line was set at 4.5, covered 13.

I have yet to oppose Atlanta on the road against any Central team so today is a first, but they have only played one central team on the road where they lost by 12 to Cleveland, line was at 5.5.

I'm going to sell some spread points and play INDIANA -9.5 @ 3.65

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Postby undertherobe » Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:20 pm

Brave move with the Hawks having won six straight games but the odds reflect the risk. Interesting that Atlanta's last five losses have all come by double digits though.

Some teams playing on the road tonight with very poor road records ranging from the 1-18 76ers through to the 4-10 Kings.

Opposing the following teams outright pays almost 3/1 with Marathon Bet

LA Lakers (3-17 on the road)
New Orleans (3-14)
Brooklyn (2-12)
Milwaukee (3-13)
Philadelphia (1-18)
Sacramento (4-10)

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Postby PremierLeague » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:12 pm

Will take another chance this evening by giving some points away again.

Memphis entertain Miami and they are 1-1 money line against the Southeast at home, and they were the two weakest teams in Charlotte and Washington.

Miami on the other hand are 2-0 money line when going West a timezone, and both were won comfortably. I actually had Miami down to win by 3 today regardless but I am going to take a further chance and go Miami -3.5 pts ATS @ 3.45

Miami should also be fresher than Memphis after being pretty much at home as of late, other than the short trip to Orlando. Memphis tiredness has certainly shown in their recent results losing by 2-3 times the spread prediction, although they covered at home last time out vs Lakers, but then that is something everyone else does when Lakers go east.

Miami flopped the other evening so need to bounce back, but the teams are so evenly matched that I feel this is worth a punt at the odds.

Some other stats as to why this is a risky bet, but still value. Im 15-15 money line playing away dogs this season. 11-5 when the away dog is going west.
Miami -3.5 pts ATS @ 3.45

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Postby PremierLeague » Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:22 pm

After a couple of speculative punts I think I'll bet a little more sensibly today. Yeah, right !! I'm playing Philly.

Philly travel west today to take on Sacremento and this is their biggest timezone travel of the season so far. When Philly go west they cover so much better, and on my match predictions the lines are nearly always far more generous than when the play against Eastern teams. I think todays line of 9 is 4pts too generous.

Here is how my predictions have played out so far this season for this situation.

Sac are favs today, Philly are the dogs.
I have SAC by 5 money line, so I obviously have Philly to cover the 9 pt spread.

Divison
When I have predicted SAC to fail to cover when they are money line favs against the Atlantic they are 0-2.
When I have predicted PHI to cover when they are money line dogs against the Pacific they are 1-0.

Conference
When I have predicted SAC to fail to cover when they are money line favs against the Eastern they are 0-2.
When I have predicted PHI to cover when they are money line dogs against the Western they are 6-1.

League
When I have predicted SAC to fail to cover when they are money line favs against they are 3-4.
When I have predicted PHI to cover when they are money line dogs against the Western they are 9-7.

As you can see, Philly get worse as they go east and into their own conference and division.

This is the furthest West that Philly have gone this season. Two previous furthest in terms of timezone were Phoenix and Uta. They actually beat Phoenix money line and covered by 18.5, and lost narrowly to Uta by 4, but covered by 4.5.

SAC by the way won both of their home games by 2 when fav against the Atlantic, but failed to cover the lines of 6 each time.

Pick - PHI 76ers +9 ATS

P.S By the way. The public consensus is 71% with SAC :)

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Postby undertherobe » Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:40 am

Good shout on the 76ers :win:

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Postby PremierLeague » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:06 pm

Milwaukee travel east today to take on Indiana and they dont fair too bad against the eastern conference against the spread, but still not well enough to consider backing them. In fact, delve further and there are many reasons to oppose them today. Looking at their line history and how I have predicted the line then the bookies are way too short in my opinion on the lines that they set. The line today is set at 6, I think it should be 9.

Here is how my predictions have played out so far this season for this situation.

Pacers are favs today, Bucks are the dogs.
I have Pacers by 9 money line, so I obviously have them to cover the 6 pt spread.

Division
When I have predicted MIL to fail to cover when they are money line dogs against the Central they are 0-3.
When I have predicted IND to cover when they are money line favs against the Central they are 2-0.

Conference
When I have predicted MIL to fail to cover when they are money line dogs against the Eastern they are 3-5.
When I have predicted IND to cover when they are money line favs against the Eastern they are 4-0.

League
When I have predicted MIL to fail to cover when they are money line dogs they are 3-6.
When I have predicted IND to cover when they are money line favs against they are 5-0.

As you can see, MIL get better as they go west in their own conference and division, but they can be taken on at division level. Couple that with the fact how well IND perform for me across the board for today situation then this is a solid play for me. Not a super solid bet, but solid.

Pick - IND Pacers - 6 ATS

The public consensus at this early stage in the day is 58% with IND.

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Postby undertherobe » Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:12 am

It's interesting to see the perceived strength of each conference has flipped this season.

The top ten teams in the East all have winning records whilst the West only has six teams with winning records.

Still a very long way to go in the regular season but an Eastern team with a winning record hasn't missed out on the playoffs since the 04/05 Cavaliers and the East haven't had more teams with a .500 record or better than the West since the 01/02 season.

Are we seeing a shift in power or is this just a mid-season blip and normal service will be resumed as we head toward the end of the season?

Also interesting is that the top ten East teams are separated by just 4.5 games. In the West, 3rd ranked Oklahoma are already 4.5 games behind 2nd ranked San Antonio and 7.5 behind Golden State.

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Postby PremierLeague » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:56 pm

Pacers were donkeys last night.

The Lakers entertain Philly this evening as favourites with a line set at 3.5. The last time the Lakers were home money line favourites was against Denver, where they lost by 11 to a 2.5 pt spread.

Philly on the other hand have been underdogs against the spread on the road all season long and if you backed them blindly you would be in profit. This is actually the lowest line they have faced all season on the road, and although looks nearly spot on, I still want to be with them to cover.

Stats for when I have calculated LA to lose at home ATS when money line favs.

Well, that is easy, I just nearly never find myself in that position and in fact has only happened once where they failed miserably ATS by 13.5 versus Denver.

Philly stats where I have predicted the ATS win on on the road when money line dogs.

2 - 0 vs Pacific
7 - 1 vs Western
10 - 7 vs league

As stated the other evening, Philly are miles better going WEST.

Pick PHI 76ers +3.5

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Postby botev1921 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:48 pm

Your strategy seems to be very interesting but neglects completely some of the basics of the game. No idea where you saw Pacers being backed by 58% when hour before tip-off the market moved heavily against them. They were on a back to back with players being banged up.

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Postby PremierLeague » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:22 pm

Your strategy seems to be very interesting but neglects completely some of the basics of the game. No idea where you saw Pacers being backed by 58% when hour before tip-off the market moved heavily against them. They were on a back to back with players being banged up.
At the time of posting, 11 hours before the game (i stated at this early stage), that was the public consensus at covers.

If you had pointed out reasons to oppose prior to the event then it would have been most useful.

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Postby PremierLeague » Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:26 pm

The biggest incorrect line for me this evening is GS at home to Denver.

The line is set at 14 but I have Golden State by 24 today so it gives me room for calculation error.

I have predicted GS by 24 or greater 8 times this season at home and in 5 of those games the line has been set at 14 or more.

In those 5 games they covered in 4 and narrowly failed to cover the other by 2. The lines they have covered so far are 17 by 17, 16 by 3, 14 by 4, 14.5 by 5.5. The line they didnt cover was actually against todays opponents, Denver, but the line that day was set at 17.

You can argue DEN are in better or worse form that day, as it depends how you look at it. As I type it is not yet confirmed if Curry is back or not for GS today so the line may or may not move, but I am playing mainly due to the line being too short in my opinion.

Overall when I predict GS to cover as favs at home vs Western conference they are 6-2. When I predict DEN to not cover as dogs on the road against the Western Conference they are 3-1 in my favor.

As I type this the public consensus with covers is 60% Golden State.

GS will either avenge the previous spread home lost to Den or they will hit me in the pocket again. :)

Pick - Golden State - 14 ATS

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