NBA Betting Strategy

someguy4321
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NBA Betting Strategy

Postby someguy4321 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 6:32 am

I really like betting on the NBA especially the overs/unders totals. However when I've a bet on the 'overs' (overs for game total points) I get annoyed when two teams are scoring heaps of points in the first and second quarter and cruising to score over the 'overs total' in my bet and then both teams fizzle out in the third or fourth quarters. I know it's the risk of betting but does anyone else encounter this? It's like there's a dip in the point scoring later in the game but it's frustrating because both teams were scoring heaps of points earlier on and then I lose my bet. I guess bookies are counting on this to happen. Anyone know strategies on dealing with this? Advice/tips?

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Postby botev1921 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 9:35 am

Very strange observation, which I can't agree with of give you advice on. Point markets are a coin toss and if there is one thing you can do, it's studying the position match-ups and the defensive capacity of wing players on different teams. As you probably suffered your recent setback in the playoffs, you should know that defence in the later parts of a game in the playoffs is usually better than during the regular season. Generally second quarters should see less points due to all teams resting the starters for 6-10 minutes in the second. At the same time, games that are close are more often than not decided by defence, so in third and fourth quarters you should expect better defensive efficiency. When a game shapes like a blowout as late as the third quarter, you should expect more points in the fourth due to the trailing team concentrating on long range shots and leading team not defending as well.

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continued...

Postby someguy4321 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:25 am

Thanks for your feedback.

My post was more in frustration because I could have made a small profit but since since the points seized up in the third and fourth quarters I lost. Not to worry. The game was Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers. I'm relatively new to watching and betting on the NBA compared to other sports. I want to learn as much as I can because mistakes are a part of learning.

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Postby botev1921 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:48 am

Then surely my notes will help you out. Memphis are known as one of the top defensive teams in the league, so backing an over on their games is always risky as long as the line is not too low. In best of 7 series, it is worth remembering that rarely all games will be the same, so you should expect changes in the points outcome from one game to the other. Blazers lost game three because they fouled way too often, so it was only to be expected that they will be more careful - 31 PFs down to 13 in game four, which immediately cuts app. 20 points off your total and it was to be expected. Games one and two were low-scoring and probably the game three over was more of an exception. Most punters had this series valued at around 188-193 points per game.

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Postby someguy4321 » Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:59 am

In my first season of NBA watching (besides the points totals) the Golden State Warriors are very consistent at winning. In the regular season they'd close to 80% wins. Stephen Curry is an excellent points scorer. I haven't watched every game but I know they're a blardy good team! Unfortunately the head-to-head betting option is around $1.20-1.30 for a GSW win hence why I back the points totals which are normally double your money (yet more risky).

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Postby BohsDublinIreland » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:36 pm

The Warriors had a great regular season win record but it's also well worth looking up their ATS record.

In terms of betting totals, you can also look at coaches and read about them. Their capacity to make in-game adjustments, whether they like to "hang in" or "gamble", whether they like to keep games close etc, these are all worth thinking about - but most of us don't have the time :?

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Continued...

Postby someguy4321 » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:17 am

The thing I liked most about the Golden State Warriors is their winning consistency. I've backed other favourite teams during the regular season to win but then they lost against 'underdog teams' (by 5 or less points or whatever).

Every time I backed the GSW I'd feel confident in knowing they wouldn't be upset by other teams.

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Postby BillBlue » Mon May 04, 2015 10:46 pm

Take the Bulls and Houston tonight worlds worst picker is on Cleveland and the Clippers he has been horrible lately

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Postby Boggle » Thu May 21, 2015 6:55 am

At the same time, games that are close are more often than not decided by defence, so in third and fourth quarters you should expect better defensive efficiency. When a game shapes like a blowout as late as the third quarter, you should expect more points in the fourth due to the trailing team concentrating on long range shots and leading team not defending as well.
My experience with NBA points totals has been a bit different to that. In blowouts I notice the totals tend to be lower. When teams are close and start trading baskets it seems to be the best for high scoring games.

Also in tight games, you can get big totals in the last minute of the game when teams start fouling to stop the clock and running quick offensive sets. In blowouts that doesn't happen and you get hardly any points in those last few minutes when all the scrubs are in the game and teams are basically running out the clock.

I guess it really depends though, if the blowout is from one team going balls deep on the other with super-efficient play. If it's a 30 pt blowout because one team puts up 130 pts on 68% fg and hits a lot of threes then games like that will still go over.

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