Euroleague Play-off

Who will pass on final four, EA7 Milan or Maccabi Electra?

Poll ended at Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:23 pm

EA7 Milan
3
75%
Maccabi Electra
1
25%
 
Total votes: 4
Kapica89
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Euroleague Play-off

Postby Kapica89 » Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:23 pm

Fc Barcelona - Galatasaray Liv Hospital

Probably starters for Barcelona - Huertas, Papanikolaou, Tomic, Navarro and Lorbek, except them Barcelona have plenty of good players like Nachbar, Sada, Abrines, Lampe, Dorsey and Oleson... Main firepower will be Navarro and Tomic, so bet on player performance for these two in play-off always is good choice... Barcelona playing great defense, but this season I rate them as better in attack then in defense, so another good bet will be Barcelona to score over points, they will usualy be over 83-84pts against Galatasaray in quarter finals... Barcelona have no injured players for start play-off

Probably starters for Galatasaray - Aldemir, Arroyo, Erceg, Hairston and Markoishvili maybe Mensah-Bonsu if he will be healthy, another players from Galatasaray aren't so good, I mean on bench players, or 2nd unit, Guler and Arslan, imo, worth nothing in play-off, Macvan and Domercant are capable to score, but against Barcelona I am not sure how they will play... Arroyo and Erceg (due Mensah-Bonsu injury) will spend most of the time on court, so backing them on player performance is good job... Galatasaray this season is incosistent, they have a lot up&downs in game, they are capable to score 30pts in one quarter and in second to score no more then 10pts, if they want to have chance against Barcelona they must try with shoots from distance, because under the rim they have no advantage, Aldemir is good player, but not that good for match-up with Antic, so bet on Galatasaray or Galatasaray to defend handicap have no value against this Barcelona

Real Madrid - Olympiakos Piraeus

Probably starters for Real Madrid - Bourousis, Darden, Fernandez, Llull and Mirotic, same as Barcelona, bench of Real is very good, especially Rodriguez, probably best bench player in EL this season, except them they have Draper, Mejri, Reyes and Slaughter, all of them are great second unit, and with reason Real is main contender to win EL this season... When we talking about betting on player performance, I prefer bet on Rodriguez, Fernandez and Mirotic, but Olympiakos playing very good defense, so maybe most secure pick from those three is Rodriguez, because players in 2nd unit of Oly aren't such good defenders as 1st unit... This is very good match-up, attacking minded team which force fast basketball, against team which force possesion basketball, I can not wait to watch this game, but always good to take Real with handicap on home ground but handicap no more then 8,5-9,5...

Probably starters for Olympiakos - Dunston, Mantzaris, Papapetrou, Shermadini and Spanoulis, Printezis and Perperouglu are still doubtful, and I don't have information will they play in first game or not, but if they will be healthy then will play in starting line-up, bench of Olympiakos is preety solid with Lojeski, Petway, Collins and Sloukas, but imo, some players from bench like Lojeski, if someone ask me, will play in starting line-up, he has great pace, great shoot from distance and behind the arc, so for me he is better solution in attack against Real then someone like Papapetrou... Best option for player performance are Printezis (if they play), Spanoulis and Lojeski, Dunston against Bourousis, imo, have no chance under the rim, Mantzaris won't taking so many shoots, and Perperoglou depends of how evening he have... For Oly good bet will be on money line when they playing at home, because I believe with hard defense they can reach one win, also on home court under will be good choice, probably line will be set on 155points at least

CSKA Moscow - Panathinaikos

Probably starters for CSKA - Khryapa, Weems, Krstic, Hynes and Fridzon because Teodosic will miss first game for sure due injurie, I rate bench of CSKA same as for Real and Barcelona, they playing great like team, Jackson is very good guard and great runner in fastbreaks, Kaun can replace Krstic on position five under the rim, Micov is great shooter, and always capable to score for 3pt, Pargo same as Jackson, but he is not such good shooter from distance, Vorontsevich have couple good roles this season, but he is maybe worst player on bench, all in all, very compact team, and my favorites to win EL this season... Bet for player performance definitly will be on Weems and Krstic, Weems because Teo is out, so he will spend most of the time on court, and will take more shoots, also will go plenty of times on free throw line, Krstic, because he is former NBA player, that experience against Lasme or Batiste is too much, and line for him will be around 11,5 or 12,5... Money line CSKA will be good for combo material, CSKA with handicap, not have value without Teo, so I will stay away from this bet in first game

Probably starters for Panathinaikos - Ukic, Diamantidis, Gist, Lasme and Maciulis, bench not so convinced Fotsis is good player but when he start to miss they taking more shoots then usual, that is not so good, Curry, I still wonder why he play for Pana, most turnovers went on him and he haven't goal in attack or when he need to call action, Bramos, good shooter but not so good, lately like he improved his form, but still not good enough, Batiste, too old, he can not play on his old level anymore, Mavrokefalidis, big man which know nothing under the rim, waste balls with some idiotic shoots, Pappas, nothing special, Wright, imo, only bright spot of this bench, great pace, great shooter and definitly far better then Curry... I don't like to bet on player performance in Pana team, but if I must choose then I will get Gist over and maybe Diamantidis now in play-off... I choose one bet here, Pana will score more points then line will suggest, line will be something around 68pts maybe, and that will be good call

EA7 Milan - Maccabi Electra

Probably starters for EA7 Milan - Hackett, Langford, Moss, Samuels and Wallace, Melli and Gentile weren't in team in last game, so I don't have information if they will be available for first game, if they will play they will be in starting line-up, except those seven players, others on bench same as Pana, not so convinced, Jerrells is worth to mention, he is capable to score at anytime for 3pt, and that is big thing against Maccabi, only player worth to take for player performance is Langford and maybe Genitle, both of them go oftenly on free throw line, and they have easier job to reach their lines then other players... Milan will be host of final-four this year, and that will have great impact on EA7 in quarter-final, so backing then on home court is good bet, and definitly will have value, also on road good bet is over, line will be set on 150 maybe, but imo will be lower then that

Probably starters for Maccabi - Smith, Schortsanitis, Ohayon, Hickman and Pnini or Ingles, James is still injured, and I doubt that he will play in this round, bench is quite good, Blu, one of the best shooters in EL this season, Rice, classic joker, player with great pace, and know how to score for 3pts in dificult position, Tyus, very good replacment under the rim, perfect rebounder, and with Ohayon or Rice, very good duo... Blu is best option for player performance, he is on fire lately, but also in this kind of games, Hickman should be one of most use solution in attack, same as Big Sofo, so depends of line, one of those three should be considered for over... Maccabi on home court is always good choice, against any team, also handicap on that kind of games is good choice if it under 5,5-6,5

I hope this will help someone when choosing picks from EL... Tommorow I will post my picks for first games... Good luck

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Postby undertherobe » Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:43 pm

Some good stuff here Kapica89. Euroleague doesn't get much coverage on here so looking forward to reading more of your thoughts as the playoffs progress.

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Re: Euroleague Play-off

Postby Kapica89 » Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:12 pm

Fc Barcelona - Galatasaray Liv Hospital

Probably starters for Barcelona - Huertas, Papanikolaou, Tomic, Navarro and Lorbek, except them Barcelona have plenty of good players like Nachbar, Sada, Abrines, Lampe, Dorsey and Oleson... Main firepower will be Navarro and Tomic, so bet on player performance for these two in play-off always is good choice... Barcelona playing great defense, but this season I rate them as better in attack then in defense, so another good bet will be Barcelona to score over points, they will usualy be over 83-84pts against Galatasaray in quarter finals... Barcelona have no injured players for start play-off

Probably starters for Galatasaray - Aldemir, Arroyo, Erceg, Hairston and Markoishvili maybe Mensah-Bonsu if he will be healthy, another players from Galatasaray aren't so good, I mean on bench players, or 2nd unit, Guler and Arslan, imo, worth nothing in play-off, Macvan and Domercant are capable to score, but against Barcelona I am not sure how they will play... Arroyo and Erceg (due Mensah-Bonsu injury) will spend most of the time on court, so backing them on player performance is good job... Galatasaray this season is incosistent, they have a lot up&downs in game, they are capable to score 30pts in one quarter and in second to score no more then 10pts, if they want to have chance against Barcelona they must try with shoots from distance, because under the rim they have no advantage, Aldemir is good player, but not that good for match-up with Antic, so bet on Galatasaray or Galatasaray to defend handicap have no value against this Barcelona

Real Madrid - Olympiakos Piraeus

Probably starters for Real Madrid - Bourousis, Darden, Fernandez, Llull and Mirotic, same as Barcelona, bench of Real is very good, especially Rodriguez, probably best bench player in EL this season, except them they have Draper, Mejri, Reyes and Slaughter, all of them are great second unit, and with reason Real is main contender to win EL this season... When we talking about betting on player performance, I prefer bet on Rodriguez, Fernandez and Mirotic, but Olympiakos playing very good defense, so maybe most secure pick from those three is Rodriguez, because players in 2nd unit of Oly aren't such good defenders as 1st unit... This is very good match-up, attacking minded team which force fast basketball, against team which force possesion basketball, I can not wait to watch this game, but always good to take Real with handicap on home ground but handicap no more then 8,5-9,5...

Probably starters for Olympiakos - Dunston, Mantzaris, Papapetrou, Shermadini and Spanoulis, Printezis and Perperouglu are still doubtful, and I don't have information will they play in first game or not, but if they will be healthy then will play in starting line-up, bench of Olympiakos is preety solid with Lojeski, Petway, Collins and Sloukas, but imo, some players from bench like Lojeski, if someone ask me, will play in starting line-up, he has great pace, great shoot from distance and behind the arc, so for me he is better solution in attack against Real then someone like Papapetrou... Best option for player performance are Printezis (if they play), Spanoulis and Lojeski, Dunston against Bourousis, imo, have no chance under the rim, Mantzaris won't taking so many shoots, and Perperoglou depends of how evening he have... For Oly good bet will be on money line when they playing at home, because I believe with hard defense they can reach one win, also on home court under will be good choice, probably line will be set on 155points at least
Main picks passed today, Barcelona scored 88pts, line was set on 78,5 in some bookies 80,5, Real destroy Oly and cover handicap, Mirotic, Rodriguez and Fernandez, all of them cover lines for player performance, on other side Spanoulis cover line for over in player performance, same as Dunston for under, I hope someone following this, and earned some money

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Postby Kapica89 » Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:23 pm

For first game today between CSKA and Panathinaikos I won't bet on game picks as over/under or covering handicap, I will focus on player performance, and I use odds from Pinnacle or bet365:

James Gist over 7,5 points at odd of 2.16 on Pinnacle 4/10

Gist is excellent player, with great phisicly ability, great rebounder and also very good shooter, this line set too low for him, I suppoused that he still not fully recovered but he probably will get at least 20 minutes today, enough time to cover this line, with Dimantidis, excellent assister, few easy points under the rim for Gist and few free throws will do the job

Nenad Krstic over 12,5 points at odd of 1.917 on Pinnacle 2/10
Sony Weems over 14,5 points at odd of 2.23 on Pinnacle 2/10


As I said in my first post here, Krstic is far better then Lasme or Batiste, and Weems will get extanded minutes due Teodosic injury, that mean more shoots from distance and for 3pt, same as a lot of free throws, Pana like to play zone in defense, in that case CSKA have two solution in attack, shoots behind the arc via Weems, Micov, Fridzon or Khryapa and second choice is to push the ball under the rim on Krstic or Kaun, so both of those lines are beatable

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Postby Kapica89 » Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:15 am


James Gist over 7,5 points at odd of 2.16 on Pinnacle 4/10

Nenad Krstic over 12,5 points at odd of 1.917 on Pinnacle 2/10
Sony Weems over 14,5 points at odd of 2.23 on Pinnacle 2/10
Another very good day, Gist scored 9pts, Weems 21pts, only Krstic failed with 5pts

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Postby Kapica89 » Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:10 pm

Real Madrid - Olympiakos @ Olympiakos +10 at odd of 2.02 on Pinnacle 3/10
Georgios Printezis over 9,5 points at odd of 2.09 on Pinnacle 3/10


Draper is out for Real, but that is not important missings, on other side Perperoglou set as questionable, all that is not so important, I choose this one because result in first game not reliable at all, Real made 65% for 2pt and 42% for 3pt against Oly, I think Oly aproach will be more cautios today, and expect thight game, also I hope Printezis will get extended minutes, in first game he played just 13 minutes and scored 10 points, also expect better play from Lojeski, so this handicap for today set too high imo

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Postby Kapica89 » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:24 pm

Real Madrid - Olympiakos @ Olympiakos +10 at odd of 2.02 on Pinnacle 3/10
Georgios Printezis over 9,5 points at odd of 2.09 on Pinnacle 3/10
Oly covered handicap 82-77 and Printezis score 10 points in just 11 minutes on court, so great day, 2/2 passed

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Postby Kapica89 » Fri Apr 18, 2014 2:21 pm

James Gist over 8,5 points at odd of 2.16 on Pinnacle 4/10

Sony Weems over 14,5 points at odd of 2.10 on Pinnacle 3/10

I already wrote everything for both of those players, and they covered lines in first game, so I choose them again

Sofoklis Schortsanitis over 10,5 at odd of 2.05 on Pinnacle 3/10

Very intense game we saw two days ago, and then Milan showed that they don't have solution under the rim, Big Sofo was simply great, and he is much stronger then any player from Milan, so in first half he will be main firepower, 17pts in first game tell me that we should see at least 13-15pts today

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Postby Kapica89 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 3:38 pm

Galatasaray - Barcelona @ Galatasaray +7 at odd of 2.01 on Pinnacle 6/10

Navaro will be out for tonight, that is big blow for Barcelona, Galatasaray in EL this season on home court lost with more then 7pts just from Real Madrid, but tonight situation is different, and because I have to many theory of conspiracy (general sponsore of EL is Turkish airlines, Galata will have sold arena for tonight, and probably for tommorow, all these things are enough for me to take this) I took Galata with handi, and also I believe that Galata will win tonight, Arroyo will probably be in team, and that will be big boost for Galata, so this handi is quite generous

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Postby Kapica89 » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:18 pm

Georgios Printezis over 10 points @ 2.24 @ Pinnacle

Olympiakos - Real Madrid - Olympiakos to win @ 2.07 @ Pinnacle


Do-or-die game for Oly tonight, they can not afford to lose, I hope Printezis will get at least 20min today, they feeling better and Real showed that they don't have solution for him, Oly on home court is always very strong team, playing very though defense, and infront their own crowed they want win and extand play-off hopes, all players are available for both teams, but I expect home court advantage and though defense will bring Oly victory tonight

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Postby Kapica89 » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:14 pm

Sofoklis Schortsanitis over 10,5 points @ 2.29 @ Pinnacle @ 2u

Milan trashed Maccabi in second game because Sofo picked up injury on start of the game, for tonight he will be health and he will play at least 20 min, this line set correct for him, but Milan showed in first game that they don't have solution for him

Dimitris Diamantidis over 10,5 points @ 2.15 @ Pinnacle @ 2u

Diamantidis will be main firepower tonight, I expect from him to go on free throw line oftenly, and he will take more shoots then usual, same as Oly, tonight is do-or-die game for Pana, and best player must play his best

James Gist over 8,5 points @ 2.16 @ Pinnacle @ 2u

Gist on home court this season average scores 10.2 points, last game wasn't that good, but same as Diamantidis, all main players will give their maximum tonight, atm this game is most important game in season for Pana

Sonny Weems over 14,5 points @ 2.18 @ Pinnacle @ 2u

Weems in last two games was best players in CSKA, in both games he was over 20pts, tonight 15 points from him at least we will see

Panathinaikos - CSKA Moscow - Over 139,5 @ 2.06 @ Pinnacle @ 5u

Line set too low for those two teams, Pana must looking victory, CSKA will play without pressure and will try to finish play-off, all in all, I see tonight open game with lot of points and fast breaks, also we will see a lot of shoots for 3pt

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