Mid season antepost

toadie21
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Mid season antepost

Postby toadie21 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:00 pm

Its week 9, the half way point in the NFL regular season. And this is the point where I like to make my antepost picks for the divisions and the SuperBowl.

I didn’t make a preseason Super Bowl bet but at week I did back the Cowboys 33/1 a strong team with recent playoff experience. and Ravens 100/1 good defence, a weak schedule and with the Steelers underperforming looked to be a weak division however Steelers have turned things around.
This week I’m going to put together a divisional acca and make my picks for the AFC and NFC.

Have you guys made your antepost picks? Have you any thoughts on the NFL antepost markets?

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby Jim Brown » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:25 pm

Timely post, toadie :win:

My original Superbowl pick, the New York Giants, is now a laughing stock - and rightly so! Thankfully I'm not the only one red-face about that :lol:

It's a very strange season in so many ways. Chiefs looked unstoppable, until they were stopped - twice. The Eagles now look like a top-notch offense, but without a defense. The Patriots, meanwhile, quietly go about business having recovered from a slow start. Always fear a Bellichick team.

I would not put you off your Cowboys pick in any way, especially this season, but I do have a quite fancy for the Panthers. When they reached the Superbowl two years ago the whole football world expected them to go all the way after looking the best team all season long. This time around, no expectations. Sure, they've had a couple of hiccups, but who hasn't? I figure after their injury prone start, I have a feeling they could do a lot better this time round.

Currently 40/1 with Ladbrokes

My pre-season preview of teams to watch was the LA Rams, who top the division right now (25/1 early) and the Ravens to reach the play-offs, currently in an ok position for that. I also indicated the Bucs for high-power offense and Interceptions/sacks, but that's not going to come close.
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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby martinr » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:55 am

I was looking at these markets just last Thursday and I did place a few doubles, coupling Notre Dame @ 33/1 (each-way) in College with a number of NFL Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl selections. I mainly placed them with a view to trading out, but stupid me I didn't check to see if the College Championship winner had any liquidity on the exchange before placing the bet (it hasn't :P ), so trading out becomes a bit problematical.
Anyway I took-
AFC
Buffalo (Division @ 17/2, Conference @ 20/1 e/w, and Super Bowl @ 40/1 e/w).
Chicago (Division @ 15/1)

NFC
Carolina (Div @ 5/2, Conf @ 16/1 e/w).
Washington (Conference @ 25/1 e/w).

College
Notre Dame
(Championship Winner @ 33/1 e/w).

These all in Doubles (19 combos).

After Notre Dame won handily on Saturday they came into 18/1 when the market reopened, and I guess the Chicago Bears and Redskins will drift after their Sunday losses when the NFL market comes back up. Buffalo and Carolina should shorten a bit.

I also took Buffalo in singles at 20/1 e/w (Conference) and 40/1 e/w (Super Bowl).
I think there's tons of value in that Division with the Pats taking such a chunk. The Bills actually have a pretty handy schedule left and even if they don't win the AFC East (although I do think they are much better than a 17/2 chance to do so), they are still a very live Wild Card chance.

The Panthers have to go in everything in my opinion. They faced a brutal schedule in 2016 combined with a Super Bowl letdown hangover and were overlooked a tad for this year. They're going along ok.

edit- Sorry Jim, I didn't see that you had also mentioned the Panthers before I posted that. I agree :win:

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby Gman84 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:02 pm

Maybe it’s the bitter twisted Redskins fan in me (ok ok, no maybe about it!) but I wouldn’t touch Dallas with a barge pole.

Several reasons. One, and the main one, Zeke is gone for six games. Maybe more legal wrangling delay it another week or so but the NFL are going to get him one way or another and it coming in later would see it creep into the end of the season and some key games. McFadden and Morris are ok backs but you’ve seen the last couple of weeks what Zeke brings to the table. I had no idea why Dallas was even attempting to throw last Sunday as Zeke was a guaranteed five yards a pop. The running game won’t fall a cliff without him but it’ll be less effective. I’m also not sure the passing game can pick up the slack. That’s not a slight on Dak Prescott, he’s a fine player and he’s going to be a pain in the backside for my team for years to come but I don’t think they’ve got the weapons to be anything more than a compliment to the running attack. Dez Bryant is one of the most overrated players in the league. All that raising 2 fingers in the air to show how much you are targeted the other day Dez?? You weren’t targeted because you weren’t open. Again, I’m not saying he’s awful, but I wouldn’t swap him for he majority of true number one receivers in the league. He’s got a bunch of team records that reflect the way the game is played nowadays and nothing more. I hate Michael Irvin the person but Dez isn’t fit to lace his boots as a football player.

Two, the schedule goes a lot harder now. Eagles twice (I think they’ll split with them but that might not be enough), Seattle, Kansas City, The Chargers, the Falcons. They get gimmes vs the Redskins and Giants but that’s about it.

Third, outside of the pass rush, the defense still isn’t good enough, if a team protects the passer well enough they’ll light them up and if Sean ales goes down again forget about it.

I see Dallas as an 8-8 side who just miss out on postseason.


For me, I like Seattle at 4/1 to with the NFC. Russell Wilson is in the MVP argument for me and if he and Wentz face off on the Championship game I like a Wilson more.

Outsider in the NFC at a longer price? I still think the Lions are way more talented than their record. The Packers are done for me without Aaron’s Rodgers and if they can just get themselves playing more consistently then I can see them making a late season run. 25/1 for the conference might be hopeful but I’m tempted by some 5/1 for the division.

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby Gman84 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:54 pm

Just to expand on my Lions thoughts. They sit three games behind the Vikings so far but they have won their one matchup so if they can do he double that gives them the tie breaker. Their schedule also features the Packers twice, the Browns, the Buc’s, the Ravens and the Bengals. All very winnable games. Meanwhile the Vikings have to play 5 of their last 8 on the road and face the Panthers, Falcons, Redskins, Lions, Packers, Bears and Rams.

Add in we need to see what happens with the Vikings QB situation (personally I don’t see how you remove Keenum when you are on winning run) and I can just see a swing in momentum in the NFC north and I think it’s worth a punt but the Lions must win this coming Monday vs the Packers.

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby toadie21 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:36 pm

The Cowboys are in a tough spot with Elliott out but the O-line can still make opportunities for Morris and McFadden. They have a tough schedule but could grab a wild card spot and 8-8 could be enough in the NFC this season. And come playoffs time they will be battle harden with Elliott back and no Rodgers to destroy their dream.

I don’t trust the Panthers or Bills but they both would interest me in to win their division as I’m all for taking on both Super Bowl teams Falcons and Patriots.

He AFC South looks interesting with the Jags and Texans both making a splash this season.

Vikings still look strong and have come through adversity but as a Packers fan I’m not touching them.

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby toadie21 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:02 am

AFC
East
Maybe this is the season to take on the Patriots and as pointed out by Martinr the Bills 8/1 could be the team. Those odds may change after TNF.

West
Chiefs 1/4 for me here but there’s still potential in the others to make a late playoff run and fight it out for a wildcard spot.

North
I’v already mentioned the Ravens 12/1 but the Steelers look like they have all the momentum right now. But they are 1/12 odds on and I can’t touch them for a team that has been so inconsistent.

South
A really exciting division the Jaguars defence looks incredible and Texans 5/2 QB Watson is putting up amazing numbers and then you have the Titan quietly going about their business. I just feel that the Texans are looking solid on both offence and defence.

NFC
East
Eagles are running away with the division, although in do like the Cowboys I’m thinking more of a wildcard spot for them. No bet in this division.

West
Seahawks and Rams look to be fighting it out. Seahawks have plenty of experience on their team but the Rams 2/1 have been a very good team this season and have an excellent defence. I wish I’d have payed more attention to Jim when he mentioned them at 25/1 preseason.

North
I’m kind of clinging on to hope that Rodgers comes back late into the season and picks up where he left off, but realistically I can’t see it. The Vikings are impressive especially when you consider the injuries they’ve had to contend with. But I’ll go with gman and the Lions 5/1.

South
Another exciting division with the Saints in control and the Falcons and Panthers got on their heels. The Buccs are loaded with talent so I wouldn’t rule out a late season surge however the lack of a bye week worries me more than their current standing. Panthers 12/5 have been mentioned by Jim and Martinr so I’ll side with them here.

A couple of divisional accas

Chiefs, Texans, Rams, Lions & Panthers pays just over 200/1 bet365

Add Bills and Ravens for the lotto ticket at just under 17,000/1 William Hill

As for the big one the SuperBowl. In the AFC the Chiefs look strong and are available at 8/1 but I like the Texans 40/1. They’ve had a strong defence (even without JJ Watt) and have good offensive weapons in RB Miller and WR duo Hopkins and Fuller but have always struggled at QB. Rookie Watson has come in and been a revaluation smashing records and scoring an incredible amount of points.
In the NFC I still really like my pick the Cowboys 25/1 as they look playoff ready. But another team I like is the Rams 20/1 they have an incredible defence that can cause any team problems and will give their offence a chance to get the win.

BOL gang

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Re: Mid season antepost

Postby Gman84 » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:51 am

So I mentioned the Lions last week and they’ve shortened a bit now to win the NFC North a best price of 4/1 with Coral is what’s left. Their running game is anworry but if Stafford can play like he has the last couple of games they’ve got a fair chance IMO with a softer looking schedule than the Vikings.

I’ve put them in a Patent with the Cowboys at 9/1 (despite my comments last week that feels a value price given they’ve got to play the Eagles twice) and the Chargers at 18/1! That AFC West is falling apart and whilst they have a lot of ground to gain if the Chiefs don’t fix their recent poor form 9 wins might do the job. Big long shot but what the heck!

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