Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Gman84
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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:34 pm


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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby martinr » Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:18 am

The Underdog Blog is up for week 8 https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413131

Only two picks this week - I like the look of a couple more but the odds are just too short, but I do have a 6/1 shot in there! I may need that to make up for last week!! :shock: :D
I agree that the Jets could be worth a look on the Money Line.
It's completely understandable for an Offensive Coordinator to want to put his own systems and ideas into practice when coming into a new team. Steve Sarkisian has a bit to prove and copying Kyle Shanahan's play book and methods wouldn't have been a smart way to start his tenure with the Falcons. However it seems almost obtuse, and at best it sells the fan base short, when it becomes obvious that Atlanta needs more production from its star receivers and yet the OC perseveres with a playbook so different from the blitzkrieg attacking style game that worked so well for the team, breaking scoring records and taking them to the Super Bowl, last year.
Steve Sarkisian is in a really tough situation and to be honest I wouldn't be confident he lasts long at Atlanta.
I use a stats site run by Warren Sharp and this week on his podcast he does a great job of breaking down exactly what has changed with this offence since Sarkisian took over from Kyle Shanahan. There are some stark differences in Matt Ryan's pass location and pass frequency charts from 2016 to 2017, and how Julio Jones and other targets are being utilised this year.
These are issues that are almost fully on the Offensive coaching staff rather than the players. Sarkisian does have an analytics background so he should be well aware of what he's doing wrong and it might be that he does change his playbook sooner rather than later, but until he does it's impossible to back the Falcons with any confidence.

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:31 pm

Great points martinr. I mentioned in some of my preseason blogs that this was a reason I wasn't taking any Falcons players in any of the preseason bets (not that my actual ones are ripping it up!) but the change in OC was part of that although I felt the Falcons could still win this division (and they may yet do). The issue for the Falcons and Sarkison is - as Jerry Glanville used to put it - that the NFL stands for Not For Long and there is not much patience for things to adapt. A new OC has his own ideas and a way of doing things, the players have a way they want to play and do things. They likely need time to find a happy medium.

It was actually the running game I felt might struggle more as Sarkison is more a power guy whilst Shanhan's offense was more stretch and zone blocking but the run game looks ok, as you say it seems to be a case of not being able to find the keys to the passing game.

I still think they can turn things around offensively, the difficultly might be can the defense help as well? For all the Falcons issues the defense hasn't played great in the three losses - or at least, hasn't played well when it matters.

Anyway, TD Scorers blog has all this weeks picks up now, feel free to check it out.

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby toadie21 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:09 pm

Toadies 5 ATS (19-16)
Raiders +2.5
Jets +6
Cowboys -1.5
49ers +11.5
Buccaneers -1.5
BOL gang

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:56 pm

On bet365 yesterday I seemed to find an alternative handicap. I know they offer it but these were on their main lines on the mobile app so I took the following acca:

Vikings -6.5 @20/23
Falcons -3.5 @20/23
Saints - 6.5 @20/23
Bengals -6.5 @evens
Patriots - 4.5 @10/11
Eagles - 7.0 @5/6
Steelers -0.5 @20/21

Pays just under 89/1 as an acca, went back a few mins later and all the handicaps were back to the lines I expected. Not sure if it was an error on their part but regardless, I'm very happy with all those lines, especially yhe likes of the Bengals and Vikings which I didn't want to touch with two scores needed.

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:54 pm

Thursday's TNF game (40-0 Ravens over the Dolphins) just about typifies this season, doesn't it? Ravens, a team that has scored 20 or less on four occasions already, putting 40 and a donut on a team that comes off beating the Falcons, Titans and Jets in three straight games. it's a second, inexplicable shut-out for the Dolphins, and quite how you can predict what either of these teams will do next is beyond me. My recommendation for these two in the Experts blog next week will be "buy a lottery ticket!"

This really is the strangest season. There's an abundance of teams that have two sides to them, and it's not as simple as a home-side and a road-side, as in normal seasons. Just look at the Broncos, Jaguars, Panthers, Lions, Saints, Chargers, in addition to the Dolphins and Ravens, and others as well. I used to have fun examining games and sorting out the puzzle that is a selection. It's not fun this season - I'm getting headaches! :P
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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby martinr » Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:53 am

On http://olbg.info/7/L40/D/words>bet365> yesterday I seemed to find an alternative handicap. I know they offer it but these were on their main lines on the mobile app so I took the following acca:

Vikings -6.5 @20/23
Falcons -3.5 @20/23
Saints - 6.5 @20/23
Bengals -6.5 @evens
Patriots - 4.5 @10/11
Eagles - 7.0 @5/6
Steelers -0.5 @20/21

Pays just under 89/1 as an acca, went back a few mins later and all the handicaps were back to the lines I expected. Not sure if it was an error on their part but regardless, I'm very happy with all those lines, especially yhe likes of the Bengals and Vikings which I didn't want to touch with two scores needed.
Gman those lines look to be about 3 points off each game! Odd. It's changed your chances of landing each leg from 50-50 to around 64-36. 64% each leg over 7 legs should pay around 23/1 :shock:
You've done the canny thing by putting them in an acca as youve multiplied the inherent value exponentially but don't be shocked if you get an email informing you that your bet has been cancelled :(
They may have purposely done this to try and identify sharp bettors, or maybe to test the efficiency of odds comparison sites. Interesting.

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:28 am

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked either. Same with my Tyrod Taylor anytime TD scorer bet I managed to get on Friday Night with SkyBet. I'm always wary that the bet can be voided but I don't bet massive stakes so I hope to be small enough to slip through the net :win:

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:25 pm

I didn't read that post properly last night, looks promising though! Nice spot.

Dak Prescott 10/3 anytime looks a good price for the late night. He scored in both games against them last year.

Mack Hollins is 17/2 for the Eagles too, the Eagles should score a lot through the air, he's possibly the down field threat.

And had a little nibble on Alex Erickson for the Bengals around 14/1. Again. They should put up a lot of pts today, and he's yet to return a kick this year

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:35 pm

Redskins are without three starters on the OL tonight as Trent Williams, Brandon Schreff and Spencer Long are all out! I've gone for the Redskins on the experts blog but I think with that information it might be really hard for the Skins to pull it off and Cowboys by 3 could be the bet for the later game.

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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Mogweister » Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:24 pm

Hi, just been looking for some anytime touchdown prices and although these are short prices, I think this would make a nice little double with the equivalent odds of 5/1 with Bet Victor

Julio Jones, 11/8 Atlanta Falcons.
I think jets cornerback Buster Skrine is vulnerable against top class receivers and was targeted by Dolphins second string quarterback Matt Moore last week. Skrine himself was a former Dolphin before joining the jets. Although The Falcons have been struggling the last couple of weeks, I think that 11/8 on Jones finding the endzone is generous price.

Jason Witten, 6/4 Dallas Cowboys.
Although Dak Prescott has connected with Dez Bryant for four touchdowns on four separate weeks out of seven so far this season. I think Bryant will have his hands full against washingtons top cornerback Josh Norman this evening, with the focus also being on trying to stop Running back Ezekiell Elliott from dominating on the ground, this could present opportunities for Witten, he is Prescotts security blanket in clutch situations, and has found the endzone on three separate weeks himself.
So personally, I think this little short priced double has a decent chance to bring me a small profit this week.
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Re: Week 8 2017 (Oct 26th - 30th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:47 pm

Redskins are without three starters on the OL tonight as Trent Williams, Brandon Schreff and Spencer Long are all out! I've gone for the Redskins on the experts blog but I think with that information it might be really hard for the Skins to pull it off and Cowboys by 3 could be the bet for the later game.
And so it turned out to be. Dallas always looked comfortable even if the Redskins had a very slight chance at the end. The Redskins are awful when they get the ball in that situation though - just air the thing out and hope! The only crumb of comfort was the very late suggestion to take the Dallas D to score came off!

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